MLB Awards: Top 5 NL Cy Young candidates through June
Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
While Max Scherzer is certainly in the conversation for this award, there’s many Chicago Cubs fans who likely wish Jon Lester was too. Or maybe they would have preferred for Theo Epstein to just have signed the better of the two talented former free agents, instead of the cheaper of the two.
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Lester has a poor .400 winning percentage, his ERA (3.74) ranks 27th amongst all starting pitchers in the National League and his WHIP is the highest it has been since his 2012 season. Lester can’t even be called the best pitcher in the Cubbies’ rotation this year. That honor would have to go to Jake Arrieta (8-5, 2.80) or maybe even Jason Hammel (5-4, 2.89). But at least Lester has stayed healthy and his club is currently eight games above .500.
For as well as any individual has pitched this year in the NL, the St. Louis Cardinals as a group have been outstanding. If this were not an individual award, the Cards’ rotation would hands down be the frontrunners. Their starters collectively have an MLB best 2.79 ERA, the only such group not hovering above a 3.00 mark.
It’s tough to leave a Cardinals starter off this list, as Michael Wacha made the cut in the previous months edition. So to appease any St. Louis fans, let’s just state the obvious — your rotation is very good (even without Adam Wainwright) and there are three contenders in the rotation with Wacha, Lance Lynn and Carlos Martinez who could make a strong push in the second half for this award and probably one in your bullpen with Trevor Rosenthal. All four are deserving of honorable mentions. So too is the former Cardinal-turned-Brave, Shelby Miller.
Next: Number 5
5. Jacob deGrom – 16 GS, 8-6, 2.30 ERA, 102 K, 2.63 WAR
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Dwight Gooden won consecutive Rookie of the Year and Cy Young awards with the New York Mets from 1984-85. Jacob deGrom has an outside shot at replicating that very special feat, but he will have to be extremely sharp in the second half of the season to have a chance.
He’s been great so far in 2015, with the colloquial ‘sophomore slump’ not being close to mentioned in the same breath as deGrom’s name.
A case could me made for a few other pitchers in this spot. Madison Bumgarner (8-5, 3.34) is one, but Cole Hamels (5-6, 3.02) is possibly more deserving of consideration than the Giants’ ace. Hamels future is very cloudy though and he could easily be playing in the American League at this time next month.
The Mets are in a position to make the postseason. While their rotation is carrying them more so than their bats from strong outings by Matt Harvey and on occasion from Bartolo Colon, Jon Niese and rookie Noah Syndergaard, there’s no doubt deGrom is leader of the pack.
Next: Number 4
4. A.J. Burnett – 16 GS, 7-3, 2.05, 90, 3.25 WAR
Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
A number of National League rotations sport multiple strong options for this MLB award. But the Pittsburgh Pirates have two headliners that are tough to ignore.
One is veteran A.J. Burnett. The 38-year-old loves pitching in Pittsburgh and Pirates fans love seeing him pitch at PNC Park. Batman, as the hometown fans like to call him, has a 1.29 ERA at home this season and actually took far less money to return to the Burgh over playing one more year in Philadelphia for the Phillies.
Burnett is a better pitcher when wearing the black and gold, but he’ll also have a much better chance at winning his second World Series ring with Pittsburgh in 2015 than he would have in Philly. He will be 39 and a free agent following this season. With the way he is pitching now, the Pirates might be wise to extend him for another year with options for 2017 and possibly beyond.
It’s pretty clear Burnett does not want to pitch anywhere more than in Pittsburgh, and he has not experienced the same tantalizing results outside his 1 1/2 seasons with the Pirates.
Next: Number 3
3. Gerrit Cole – 17 GS, 12-3, 2.28, 113, 2.72 WAR
Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Gerrit Cole is the other dynamic armed paired along with Burnett in the Pirates’ rotation. He leads the NL in wins, is fifth in ERA and tied for sixth in strikeouts.
While Burnett is more valuable in wins above replacement and fielding independent pitching, the Pirates would be nowhere near the top of their division standings if it weren’t for this mans 12 victories.
Cole is also the future of this team. Only 24 and under club control through the 2019 season, he has a chance to win multiple Cy Young MLB awards in his career, to which Burnett has zero of.
Wins are a subjective stat for pitchers because they are reliant on run support, something only NL pitchers can marginally control or contribute towards on offense. But at the end of the day, winning ball games is the end goal, so Cole’s inherent value to the Pittsburgh Pirates can’t be overlooked.
Next: Number 2
2. Zack Greinke – 17 GS, 7-2, 1.48, 98, 4.78 WAR
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Zack Greinke has given his Dodgers a chance to win every baseball game he has pitched in this year. Unfortunately, his club has had an anemic offense at times and Greinke’s run support has not been great.
In eight games where he has two or fewer runs of support, Greinke is 1-2 with a 0.98 ERA. In the nine games where he has received three or more runs of support during a start, he’s 6-0 with a 1.94 ERA.
Greinke’s ERA is the lowest mark in the NL among starters. While his run support has been trivial, the defensive play behind him has not. His FIP of 2.77 does not rank within the top 10 of MLB starters, but his adjusted ERA+ of 249 ranks him far ahead the second best 207 mark in the league owned by Scherzer.
Either way you cut it, Greinke has a real shot at winning his second Cy Young award and making his third postseason appearance for the Dodgers in the four years he will have pitched there at the culmination of this regular season.
Next: Number 1
1. Max Scherzer – 16 GS, 9-6, 1.82, 139, 4.71 WAR
Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
If not for Scherzer’s June, Greinke might still have held down the No. 1 spot for this instalment.
The Washington Nationals ace has been virtually un-hittable as of late. His final three June outings produced three wins, two shutouts, a one-hitter and a no-hitter which narrowly could have been a perfect game if not for a plunked batter in the ninth inning with two outs.
Scherzer has carried a no-no into the sixth inning or later in three of his last four starts. His ERA on June 9 was 2.13 and it’s now at 1.82. It’s no shock that both of last year’s Cy Young winners in Clayton Kershaw and Corey Kluber both led their respective leagues in FIP. As it stands now, Scherzer’s 1.93 is king of that category across the entire Majors with Chris Sale trailing him in the AL owning a 2.08 mark.
If anyone in either league is going to win a pitching Triple Crown, it should be Scherzer judging by how things stand now. And for any manager not named Matt Williams, Scherzer is public enemy No. 1 to that opposition’s offense.