2015 MLB Home Run Derby: Donaldson could be first Jays winner
This year marks the 30th instalment of the Midsummer Classic’s Home Run Derby. Though technically, the 29th, as the 1988 competition was cancelled due to rain in, go figure, Cincinnati, OH. Riverfront Stadium didn’t fare so well, so let’s hope Great American Ball Park has nothing but sunny skies and smiles on the evening of July 14.
As it is, the Toronto Blue Jays have been around almost nearly as long as the Home Run Derby has, playing their inaugural season in 1977. Surprisingly, no Blue Jay has ever won the crown of being named a Home Run Derby champ.
More from Call to the Pen
- Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
- Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
- Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
- 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals
Toronto fans aren’t asking for or expecting a three-time winner like Ken Griffey Jr. or a 2008 single round performance like the one Josh Hamilton put on. Just one, single, old fashioned winner would be nice for fanfare, marketing and historical significance.
After all, the Blue Jays have had four past American League home run champions on their roster, so why not a Derby winner? Jesse Barfield slugged 40 homers in ’86, Fred McGriff mashed 36 in ’89 and Jose Bautista led the AL in consecutive seasons from 2010-11 with 54 and 43 dingers, respectively.
Joey Bats has represented the Blue Jays in the Home Run Derby three of the last four seasons. In its 29 years running, the Blue Jays have been represented in 13 seasons at the Home Run Derby. Those are pretty good odds. Yet zero titles exist. And there are some pretty prolific blue chip boppers to have come up short.
[table id=9 /]
The top six players who have hit more lifetime home runs in a Blue Jays uniform have all suited up in at least one Home Run Derby for Toronto at the All-Star break. Carlos Delgado leads this class with 336 as a Jay and he competed twice in the classic event. In 1999, his final season with the Jays, outfielder Shawn Green ended up mashing 42 home runs that year but mustered only two in the first round of the Derby and was eliminated.
Josh Donaldson is sort of a late bloomer in baseball terms. He did not become a full-time starter until 2013 in his age 27 season with the Oakland Athletics. He has far fewer career home runs than any of the representatives in the table above, but he’s having his best year as a pro to date.
More from MLB All-Star Game
- Stock Up, Stock Down: All-Star week, New York Mets, Boston Red Sox
- Bet $5 on the MLB All-Star Game, Win $150 Guaranteed with DraftKings MLB Promo!
- Throwback glory: Reflecting on a pair of epic MLB All-Star Games
- MLB Stock Up, Stock Down: Angels, Braves, De La Cruz and All-Star Game
- Philadelphia Phillies: Nick Castellanos not an All-Star proves it’s about popularity
Already with 21 long shots on the year, he’s on pace to surpass his personal best of 29 last year likely sometime in August. Donaldson has one career home run at Great American Ball Park in eight plate appearances, so it’s difficult to gauge if the venue will be favorable to him because he doesn’t know it well.
So far, the All-Star Game’s venue has given up 101 home runs to batters in the 2015 regular season. That is tied for the second most amongst any National League park. with Coors Field. Great American Ball Park’s right field wall is separated from the Ohio River by only a four lane byway, so it can be prone to gusts of wind.
When it comes to favoring left-handed or right-handed power hitters, a good way of looking at it would be to look at the career splits from the Reds’ Joey Votto and Todd Frazier while playing in their home park. Votto, a lefty, has 99 career home runs in 1790 at-bats, or a home run averaged every 18 at-bats. Frazier, a righty, has logged 59 career jacks in 1093 at-bats, or a home run per 18.5 at-bats. There difference there is negligible and appears to be on this spray chart as well. Home runs look to be scattered fairly evenly beyond the outfield wall.
The park’s dimensions slightly favor left-handed pull hitters. It’s deepest in straightway center at 404 feet, but left-center field measures 379 ft compared to only 370 feet in right-center. Also, the right field foul pole is 325 feet away, three feet shorter than the left field pole. For that reason, left-handed hitting Anthony Rizzo might have a mild advantage being pitted against Donaldson in the new format for the Home Run Derby. Fellow left-handers Prince Fielder and Joc Pederson will also look to use the field’s dimensions to secure a win.
Obviously with Kris Bryant competing alongside Rizzo, the Cubs have the best odds of having a representative win. They are the only team with two players in the Home Run Derby. However, Blue Jays fans still have to like Josh Donaldson’s odds. Of the eight contestants entered, MLB StatsCast gives the Jays’ third baseman the longest home run hit on the season so far measured at 481 feet with an exit velocity of 113.6 mph. Donaldson has the third most homers (21) of any of the 2015 Home Run Derby participants.