2015 Home Run Derby: Statcast helps shed some light for rankings

Mandatory Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

Derby Day is here, and with it comes a variety of new looks for the fans. The bracket style format for the 2015 Home Run Derby is different and two fairly high profile rookies are on tap to compete in Joc Pederson and Kris Bryant.

There’s a solid blend of veteran blood in the mix too, with the 35-year-old Albert Pujols set to swing his stick that has him ranked 16th all-time on the career home run list. The Angels’ first baseman recently surpassed Mickey Mantle on the list and will be one of the more experienced players participating in the event, having competed three times in the past, finishing runner-up once. It has been awhile though, as the last time Pujols suited up for a Home Run Derby was in 2009 when he was still a Cardinal and his home Busch Stadium played host to the All-Star festivities.

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The experienced demographic is well represented by Pujols and Prince Fielder, but so too are the first-time players suiting up. Aside from the two rookies, Josh Donaldson, Anthony Rizzo and Manny Machado have never participated before in a Derby but have combined to hit 56 first-half home runs this season.

Major League Baseball simply used the number of regular season home runs hit so far this season to determine seeding. Though Bryant has the fewest home runs of the bunch with 12, he did not log his first at-bat until April 17 with the Cubs. MLB Advanced Media ran 10,000 simulations of the competition and used advanced statistics like ball exit speed velocity and factored in the farthest distance a home run ball travelled by each competitor.

However, various Vegas oddsmakers have differing views on who should be the favorite to win the Derby. Based on this, Statcast mathematics and projected matchups, Call to the Pen brings you the most intuitive glimpse into how tonight’s action could pan out. The actual Home Run Derby bracket can be viewed here.

Next: The Longshot