2015 Home Run Derby: Statcast helps shed some light for rankings

7. Anthony Rizzo

Mandatory Credit: Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports

Statcast: 2% chance

Vegas: 6/1

Rizzo gets paired up with one of the four third baseman’s competing in Josh Donaldson. While Statcast and Vegas give an advantage to Donaldson, one thing that probably is not factored in is the Blue Jay left a game on Saturday due to flu-like symptoms and he was held out of action on Sunday versus the Royals for the same reason.

It’s very likely Donaldson’s body is still fatigued and dehydrated to a certain extent depending on just how heavily the illness affected him, so Rizzo has to like his chances in that regard. No Blue Jay has ever won a Home Run Derby either. That jinx could plague Donaldson even further in his first round matchup.

Rizzo bats left-handed. Coincidentally, even though MLB seeded players based on home runs hit at the break, every opening round matchup except the No. 1 vs No. 8 one features a right-handed hitter versus a left-handed one. Rizzo is a heavy pull hitter too, with only two of his 16 home runs having landed beyond the fence in left-center or left field. His longest true distance homer went 441 feet, with an average of 402 feet.

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