Home Run Derby: Statcast helps shed some light for rankings

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Mandatory Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

Derby Day is here, and with it comes a variety of new looks for the fans. The bracket style format for the 2015 Home Run Derby is different and two fairly high profile rookies are on tap to compete in Joc Pederson and Kris Bryant.

There’s a solid blend of veteran blood in the mix too, with the 35-year-old Albert Pujols set to swing his stick that has him ranked 16th all-time on the career home run list. The Angels’ first baseman recently surpassed Mickey Mantle on the list and will be one of the more experienced players participating in the event, having competed three times in the past, finishing runner-up once. It has been awhile though, as the last time Pujols suited up for a Home Run Derby was in 2009 when he was still a Cardinal and his home Busch Stadium played host to the All-Star festivities.

8. Manny Machado

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Statscast: 2% chance

Vegas: 7/1

Even if Machado gets by Pederson who is heavily favored by Statcast, he will likely be going head-to-head against Pujols in the semi’s. He has a hold of the American League lead in home runs with 26, tied with teammate Mike Trout.

Pederson has an edge over Machado in that Great American Ball Park’s dimensions do favor left-handed pull hitters more so, but also in that Pederson’s 20 home runs in 2015 have traveled an average of 430 feet. That leads all of MLB for anyone with a minimum of 10 taters this season.

Pederson’s longest shot this season stretched the tape measure out some 480 feet, while Machado’s farthest hit dinger by true distance sailed only 422 feet.

Machado is no stranger to going opposite field though, as eight of his 19 total long balls were pushed right of the center field wall numbers. However, Machado is a rather devout line-drive gap hitter, with his average true distance being only 387 feet and only 14.7 percent of his fly balls having left the park compared to Pederson’s 20.4 percent.

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7. Anthony Rizzo

Mandatory Credit: Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports

Statcast: 2% chance

Vegas: 6/1

Rizzo gets paired up with one of the four third baseman’s competing in Josh Donaldson. While Statcast and Vegas give an advantage to Donaldson, one thing that probably is not factored in is the Blue Jay left a game on Saturday due to flu-like symptoms and he was held out of action on Sunday versus the Royals for the same reason.

It’s very likely Donaldson’s body is still fatigued and dehydrated to a certain extent depending on just how heavily the illness affected him, so Rizzo has to like his chances in that regard. No Blue Jay has ever won a Home Run Derby either. That jinx could plague Donaldson even further in his first round matchup.

Rizzo bats left-handed. Coincidentally, even though MLB seeded players based on home runs hit at the break, every opening round matchup except the No. 1 vs No. 8 one features a right-handed hitter versus a left-handed one. Rizzo is a heavy pull hitter too, with only two of his 16 home runs having landed beyond the fence in left-center or left field. His longest true distance homer went 441 feet, with an average of 402 feet.

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6. Josh Donaldson

Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

Statcast: 7% chance

Vegas: 6/1

Donaldson has a slight edge over Rizzo mostly because of sheer power. According to ESPN Home Run Tracker, his 469 foot shot on April 23 was among one of the farthest hit baseball’s all season in the American League.

The downside for Donaldson is that he was under the weather all weekend, and that only seven of his 21 home runs have been hit on the road. This blurs the line some because Rogers Centre in Toronto is a haven for home run balls. The park is an enclosed structure with an environment when even if the roof is left open, rarely factors in wind.

As it is, Donaldson’s farthest homer in an open air stadium traveled 435 feet at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. His average true distance still outdistances Rizzo by six whole feet, too. Donaldson also scatters his home runs to all parts of the park.

Even if he can get by Rizzo, the odds seem to be stacked against him as he will draw either the most experienced Derby participant in the field, or last year’s runner-up that will be hitting in his home park on Monday in the semi final.

Next: Next Slide

5. Kris Bryant

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Statcast: 19% chance

Vegas: 5/1

One of two Cubbies in the competition, this one mashes from the right side of the dish and is in his rookie season. It took Bryant over 70 at-bats to log his first regular season home run in 2015, and he’s since hit another 11.

Like his teammate Rizzo, Bryant figures to be a pull-heavy home run hitter with only one of his round trippers having been hit to the opposite field.

The rookie draws the veteran in Pujols, who is by no means a stranger to the competition or to hitting the ball out of the park in the regular season. Both he and Bryant are right-handed, but Pujols is experiencing somewhat of a resurgence to his power numbers in 2015 and looks poised to eclipse 40 total homers for the first time since his 2010 season, proving that things are clicking this year.

If Bryant is going to get by Prince Albert, he will have to do it by swinging out of his socks, which he is capable of. Bryant’s average true distance measures 409 feet with a long of 469, both higher totals than Pujols’ respective numbers.

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4. Joc Pederson

Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Statcast: 25% chance

Vegas: 7/1

The youngster is surpassing expectations in a number of ways during his rookie campaign. Few thought he would be ranked inside the the top 10 MLB-wide for home runs at the break. Pederson is also providing the Dodgers with Gold Glove quality defense on a day-to-day basis.

But back to the power stroke — not only is Pederson hitting the ball out of the park often, a number of his moon shots no doubters. Few people would have thought Pederson to have a farther average true distance than Giancarlo Stanton in 2015, but that’s the case. Pederson’s 430 feet mark leads all other players, with Stanton ranking fourth at 417 feet.

Pederson has gone opposite field seven times, so he’s capable of spraying the ball. He’s pitted against Machado, who is ranked eighth on this list. While Statcast favors Pederson heavily, Vegas doesn’t appear to like his odds very much.

No semi-final possibility would be more appealing the fans than Pujols vs. Pederson. It would be old vs. new and symbolic of a changing of the guard in the sport and the All-Star Game, with youth being represented more than ever before this year.

Next: Next Slide

3. Todd Frazier

Mandatory Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

Statcast: 16% chance

Vegas: 5/1

Todd Frazier‘s chances look pretty good based on the numbers above. They look even better when one considers he has the second most regular season home runs of any Derby competitor, he will have a home town crowd behind him, he was runner-up to Yoenis Cespedes in 2014 and he gets to swing the bat inside his familiar home park.

Where Frazier loses some favor is that he’s right-handed and he’s not nearly as experienced in this event as his round one draw, Prince Fielder.

Fielder, a lefty, will be appearing for the sixth time in the Midsummer Classic’s Derby and is a two-time winner. No one is the ball better than Fielder in the AL this year either, as his 114 hits are tops in the category.

Frazier has pushed only three of his 25 homers to the opposite field this year, with an average true distance of 398 feet.

Next: Next Slide

2. Prince Fielder

Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

Statcast: 6% chance

Vegas: 6/1

The big guy might only have half the number of long shots this year as the league leader who has 27, but Fielder’s 14 have come in lieu of the best contact hitting season he’s having in his career. His .339 batting average is 51 points higher than his lifetime average.

Uncle Phil is no stranger to adjusting his swing to suit the competition and he is not shy about putting on a show for fans during the Derby or at batting practice. The only player competing this season who is a past champion, Fielder must be pleased not seeing Cespedes’ name in the bracket.

Fielder is a heavy pull hitter with an average true distance of 413 feet and a long shot of 449 feet. He might not go deep as often, but the power is still there. Aside from Pederson, no one else has a higher average true distance for home runs in this competition than Fielder.

Next: The Favorite

1. Albert Pujols

Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Statcast: 23% chance

Vegas: 5/1

Gone seem to be the days of Pujols hitting .320 over an entire season, but the days of his 40 home run pace have returned. For one of the most prolific hitters of his generation who has accomplished so much, a Home Run Derby trophy might be one of the few accolades missing.

Pujols could use that to feed his hunger in this competition, but also as vindication to prove any of his doubters wrong who thought his power stroke has dissipated after failing to hit 30 homers in his previous two seasons.

Pujols has 20 career home runs at Great American Ball Park, the seventh highest total at any diamond he has hit in. No one else on his side of the bracket has ever competed in this event, and the three other seeds of Pederson, Bryant and Machado have an average age of 22.6 years.

Pujols gains massive appeal for winning based on his veteran approach at the plate, career longevity and one simple stat — based on when it counts hitting a home run in real live game action, he’s done it 546 times. The other seven competitors have 656 combined total home runs amongst all of them. And that number drops to only 85 for the three names on his side of the bracket. Experience counts.

Next: Kris Bryant has no business being in HR Derby

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