Baltimore Orioles have hidden gem in Zach Davies
There was a very subtle but notable performance during yesterday’s MLB Futures Game. In Team USA’s dominant 10-1 win over Team World, Pirates prospect Josh Bell homered, Nationals shortstop prospect Trea Turner doubled and tripled, fellow Nats prospect Lucas Giolito threw two scoreless innings and Cubs prospect Kyle Schwarber tripled. It would’ve been easy to overlook the 2/3 innings of work by Baltimore Orioles pitcher Zach Davies.
Don’t. Davies is the most big-league-ready prospect in the Orioles’ system.
Yes, Dylan Bundy and Hunter Harvey have better skill sets and track records as top prospects. But the likelihood they become mainstays in the Orioles’ rotation or bullpen is in danger due to their injury histories. Much like the Pirates’ frustration over the recurring injury troubles of Jameson Taillon and Steven Matz’s latest injury with the Mets, the Orioles are experiencing similar frustrations with their two prized prospects; Bundy missed all of 2013 due to Tommy John surgery, pitched only 41 1/3 innings in 2014, and was shelved after only pitching 22 innings this season after experiencing shoulder troubles; Harvey hasn’t pitched at all in 2015 and hasn’t pitched period since July 25 of 2014 due to elbow troubles, which have become a rite of passage for young pitchers. Bundy’s injury troubles could have dire consequences for the Orioles.
Davies, on the other hand, has pitched over 110 innings every season since he was drafted in the 26th round in 2011—he didn’t pitch in any minor-league competition in 2011—and already has thrown 83 1/3 this season.
Even more encouraging is his performance as he’s climbed the minors. His earned run average has gone down each of the past four seasons and his batting average against has fallen each of the past three. This season, his ERA (2.70 ) batting average on balls in play (.289), home runs per nine innings (.22) and left on base percentage (77.1 percent) are all career bests.
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This comes after Davies’ inspired performance in the Arizona Fall League. Among pitchers who threw at least 15 innings, Davies was second in ERA (1.75), fifth in WHIP (1.09) and fifth in strikeouts (23).
One of the reasons for Davies’ success this season is his groundball rate: Davies got 1.48 groundouts per airout from 2012-14. This season, he’s getting 1.77, another career high. That ratio would but him among the top 12 if he were pitching in the majors and is almost identical to the Reds’ Mike Leake, to whom Davies is often compared. Groundballs typically are hit for a higher average but are less dangerous overall, but his rise in ground ball rate and drops in BABIP and home run rate suggest he is inducing a lot of weak contact this season. His 2015 stats come from a decent but not large sample size, so some luck may be involved. But overall it bodes well.
This is important because the Baltimore Orioles play in a hitter-friendly ballpark that doesn’t hold home runs easily. So far this season, 123 home runs had been hit in Camden Yards, the most in the majors. Camden isn’t the only launch pad in the division, either; the Rogers Centre, home of the Blue Jays, and Yankee Stadium are second and third in the American League in home runs. Having a groundball pitcher like Davies could be a boon for the Orioles (who continue to linger in the playoff hunt) because even though ground balls are typically hit for a higher average, they are less dangerous overall. They become even less dangerous with the Orioles’ stout defense, and even less dangerous with the superhuman Manny Machado manning third base.
It’s too early to label Bundy and Harvey as busts—in Harvey’s case way too early—and would be an undeserved classification since they’re so young. But for the remainder of the 2015 season, the limelight belongs to Davies.