The Los Angeles Dodgers had some good news and some bad news today. First the bad news: their 35th overall pick Kyle Funkhouser will be returning to Louisville after the Dodgers were unable to come to terms with the righthander. Yet, there was good news, as the Dodgers did sign Walker Beuhler, the 24th overall selection, to a $1.78 Million bonus, over $300,000 below the slot allocation for that pick.
walker buehler, vandy pitcher, said to agree to dodgers deal. pick No. 24. it'll be under the $2,094,400 slot.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) July 17, 2015
Even with the good news of the signing, there is still more bad news for the Dodgers. Part of the reason why Buehler, someone who had been considered a possible top ten pick in the draft, was available with the 24th pick was because of an elbow issue. As it turns out, that issue is going to lead to Tommy John surgery, making it unlikely that the Dodgers will even get to see what they have in Buehler for quite some time.
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Even with the general success rate of Tommy John surgery, which is between 78% to 83%, and the number of pitchers who have come back performing better than they had, the surgery is not a given. While there is a higher success rate for younger pitchers having the surgery, there are some who never return to their previous levels, or some who take years to return to their former abilities. Just ask John Lamb.
With the recommended recovery time for the surgery being between 12 to 16 months, chances are that the Dodgers will not even get to see Buehler on the mound professionally until some point in 2017. Even if he is techinically ready to come back at the end of the 2016 season, is it really worth the risk? The Dodgers, given that they invested a first round pick on him, may feel that it is prudent to be more cautious and let him recover through an additional offseason.
Walker Buehler could turn out to be quite the steal for the Los Angeles Dodgers. However, with Tommy John surgery in his future before he has even thrown a pitch professionally, he has had quite the inauspicious start to his professional career.