Teams don’t envision their most coveted trade assets struggling right before the deadline, putting any kind of dent in their perceived value. Yet the Philadelphia Phillies find themselves in that type of situation right now with starting pitcher Cole Hamels.
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Long identified as one of this season’s most prominent trade candidates, Hamels has been shelled in each of his last two outings. In 6.1 combined innings against the Giants and Marlins he allowed 20 hits and 14 earned runs. The ugly pair of results inflated his ERA from 3.02 to 3.91 on the year.
Hamels has a rather sterling track record over his ten seasons in the big leagues, one that certainly won’t be undone by two poor starts in July 2015. Yet these consecutive misfires might be enough to get interested teams worried that there could be something wrong physically with the 31-year-old ace. ESPN’s Buster Olney hinted to as much yesterday.
Even before his recent missteps, there was some talk that the Phillies may consider keeping Hamels for now and exploring a trade again during the winter. The logic is that Andy MacPhail, who is set to succeed Pat Gillick as team president after the season, might prefer to handle such a significant undertaking himself after he has had some time to assess the situation. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that this is not an uncommon opinion among league executives.
If Hamels is indeed dealing with a health issue (all speculative at this point), postponing the trade would also potentially give him a chance to recover and prove his fitness by finishing the season in strong fashion. Though a hamstring tweak caused him to miss a start last month, there does not seem to be much external indication that this is an injury-related case. If anyone knows for sure, it would be the Phillies and Hamels himself.
So if this is just a run of uncharacteristically bad form, do the Phils need to panic? It’s probably a bit too soon for that. For now the organization should proceed as if it will trade Hamels by the end of the month. As it stands, he will likely make one more start before July 31. Philadelphia will keep its fingers crossed that he looks much more like himself in that outing and that other teams will brush off his previous bad starts as an aberration.
Of course, there is an inherent gamble in any move the Phillies make. As bad as things have been for Hamels over the past week or two, things could get even worse between now and October. Even with his recent struggles the trade market could be better now than in the offseason.
Hamels is still owed a substantial chunk of change: $23.5 million per year from 2016-2018, along with a $24 million vesting option for 2019. In the winter, teams searching for high-end starting pitching might prefer to look at free agents first rather than surrender prospects to take on Hamels and his contract. A team embroiled in a division race in the middle of the season is much more likely to take a risk. The Dodgers, Rangers, Red Sox, Cubs and Orioles have all maintained a scouting presence at Hamels’ starts.
In this particular circumstance, “now” just seems a safer bet than “later.” For players over 30, value is simply more likely to trend downward than upward. This might not be the perfect moment for the Phillies to trade Cole Hamels (that may have passed years ago) but it might be the best one they get between now and the end of his tenure in Philadelphia.
This is a massive decision for a Phillies team about to embark on a herculean rebuilding process with new incoming leadership. Getting it right would start them off on solid footing. For his part, Hamels can ease the situation by straightening himself out, and quickly.