Colorado Rockies are stockpiling arms in the minors
Jon Gray labored through his MLB debut Tuesday for the Colorado Rockies to mixed reviews. It was an exciting moment for Rockies fans, who this past week also experienced General Manager Jeff Bridich shipping Rockies cornerstone Troy Tulowitzki to Toronto for three pitching prospects.
Even though Gray only pitched four innings and threw 77 pitches, Rockies fans needed to see a glimpse of what could be a promising future, considering 2015 was over months ago. The Tulo trade added depth to a farm system that has tried to produce top-of-the-line pitchers in vain. There have been modest successes and flashes of brilliance—Ubaldo Jimenez in 2010 comes to mind—but little to none of it has been sustainable. So when the Rockies trade an All-Star and draft six pitchers in their first eight picks, like they did in the 2015 Draft, then developing quality arms in obviously a high priority.
Pitching in the altitude of Denver and Coors Fields’ spacious outfield makes it very difficult to pitch there, for obvious reasons. According to FanGraphs, Rockies pitchers have allowed the highest batting average on balls in play at home this season but are 17th on the road (entering play Wednesday). They also have the second highest home-run-per-fly-ball rate at home but are ninth on the road. And yes, this is typical of a Rockies pitching staff; since 2005, the Rockies have the highest BABIP at home and the 14th highest on the road; they also have the fourth lowest HR/FB% on the road but the third highest at home.
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One of the strategies the Rox have employed is to draft, sign and develop pitchers who induce a high amount of groundballs. Of the Rockies’ top 30 prospects according to MLB.com, 14 are pitchers—I’m also going to include Tyler Anderson, who is yet to pitch in 2015 but had a stellar 2014 in Double-A Tulsa—and nine of them have gotten 1.20 or more groundouts per airout during their minor league careers. This includes Jeff Hoffman and Jesus Tinoco, whom the Rockies received from the Blue Jays in the Tulo trade.
Dig deeper, and there are some more noteworthy numbers (entering play Wednesday; R/L splits are from 2015 only):
- Sam Moll (5.40 GO/AO in High-A Modesto) and Jairo Diaz (2.20 in Triple-A Albuquerque), both southpaws, are especially groundball-prone against lefties, which is why both are pitching out of the bullpen.
- Helmis Rodriguez (2.02) kills the most worms of the group, and even though he is a lefty, induces 1.71 GO/AO against right-handed hitters for Single-A Asheville.
- Hoffman also gets a lot of GBs against righties (1.82) but not so much against lefties (0.83)—both stats are from pitching in High-A Dunedin.
Obviously these numbers can fluctuate as the pitcher climbs the minors, but if a a groundball-heavy approach is the key to a steady staff in Denver, then the Rox have a solid foundation. Another encouraging development is the newly healthy Kyle Freeland, whom the Rockies drafted in the first round in 2014’s draft. Freeland has made three starts for a grand total of 11 innings between Rookie Ball and High-A, and most notably he’s only given up one run and struck out 12 in those 11 innings.