Dodgers’ Corey Seager Could be 2016’s Joc Pederson

Dodgers fans and baseball insiders alike were counting down the days until Corey Seager made his major league debut. This has been an historic season for baseball prospects with its fair share of juicy storylines; three Cubs rookies helped turn the team into a legitimate contender; Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor put their names among the best shortstops in the game; and Twins masher Miguel Sano has launched home run after home run. All of this happened while Seager languished in Triple-A until he went 2-for-4 with two runs and two RBIs Thursday night against the San Diego Padres.

It’s only been one game, but the way the Dodgers are handling Seager smells identical to the way the Dodgers handled centerfielder Joc Pederson. Pederson was a September call up in 2014, just like Seager, and although he struggled, the Dodgers had no problem putting him in center field on Opening Day in 2015. Both players hit from the left-handed batter’s box and both are making their debuts prior to their age 23 season.

Seager, like Pederson this season, will have his rookie eligibility intact for 2016, and a few weeks in the minors to start 2016 will give the Dodgers an extra year of control–sound familiar? 

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Compare numbers, and Seager could experience similar struggles as Pederson did in his September call up. By all accounts, Seager has All-Star games in his future, but he was not as dominant in the minors as Pederson was. In 2014, Pederson played 121 games and had 553 plate appearances at Triple-A. He hit .303 with a .435 on base percentage and slugged .582 with 33 home runs. For ease of comparison, that’s a .439 weighted on base average and 164 wRC+. Seager had 464 plate appearances in 105 Triple-A games this season, and hit .278/.332/.451/13 HR for a .344 wOBA and 106 wRC+.

Seager’s numbers are productive and bode well for future success even though he is sure to experience some growing pains. One thing working in Seager’s favor is that he has a much more balanced offensive profile than Pederson, especially in terms of strikeouts: Seager has struck out in 18.4 percent of his plate appearances as a minor leaguer while Pederson whiffed in 21.1 percent of his. That number is deceiving, as Pederson’s strikeout rate skewed higher as he climbed the minors and has diminished his offensive value this season.

With the success the 2015 rookie class has had, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Seager light up the league the rest of the season and force his way into the 2016 Opening Day shortstop role with Jimmy Rollins set to become a free agent. There were rumors that Dodger players were imploring management to promote Seager earlier this summer, and while he may have been an offensive upgrade over Rollins, the Dodgers are still in position to win the National League West. Seager’s youth and loaded skillset should be a breath of fresh air for the Dodgers, who have more fresh bodies on the way: Star pitcher Julio Urias was promoted to Triple-A and could be a Noah Syndergaard-type promotion next season.

Seager has the ability to be a star, and this September could propel him and the Dodgers into his rookie year and beyond, just like another star in the Los Angeles.

All stats from Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.com