Minnesota Twins: Temper your 2016 Byron Buxton expectations
As a prospect in Major League Baseball, top billing in the preseason that places one above the rest of the minor league population throughout America can be a heavy cross to bear. Calling it like the scouts would see it, Byron Buxton has been a fair disappointment in 2015 for the Minnesota Twins.
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Unlike fellow top prospects Corey Seager and Carlos Correa who also started their seasons in the minors, Buxton has not provided the Twins with a boost of any sort. Called up on June 14, the 21-year-old is yet to hit a home run in 117 at-bats. He was a legitimate base stealing threat in the minors, but you have to get on-base in order to swipe them. Buxton has only two steals and sports a sloppy slash line of .197/.236/.265. His Twins are 24-15 in games where he has appeared. A rather slim WAR of -0.2 does not hide the fact he has rarely contributed in any of those aforementioned victories. Even his UZR of -1.3 for any player with over 100 innings in the field ranks 13th on the club defensively.
Meanwhile Seager, also 21, is hitting .353/.457/.603 with three homers and 13 RBI in only 19 games with the Dodgers. Since being called upon, his club has maintained relatively the same lead on the Giants in the NL West standings. On September 3 it was at 6.5 games and now sits at an even 7.0.
In the AL West, Correa has been contributing heavily on defense and offense after beginning the year in Double-A. Appearing in a little more than twice the games as Buxton in 2015, Correa has a 3.6 WAR and should see a fair share of votes coming his way for the AL ROY award. He’s been a big reason the Astros are in an AL West pennant race in late September. Though currently 3.5 games back of the Rangers, Houston holds down one of two wild card spots right now.
Minnesota Twins
When Buxton was promoted to the Twins back in mid-June, they were only 1.5 games behind the American League’s best team record-wise, the Kansas City Royals of the AL Central. With only eight games remaining on the schedule, they now find themselves 10 full games behind KC and clinging to hope for a wild card berth. But before that can be clinched, Buxton’s club will have to leapfrog the Angels, Astros or Yankees in the American League standings first.
Buxton was rated the top prospect in the game by a number of reputable publishing outlets and scouts before Spring Training. He has been labelled a five tool player, or at least a guy with potential to be one, but something might be amiss there.
The youngster has a .301/.383/.489 line through four seasons in the minors. True, his power is still developing. But Buxton has never hit more than eight round trippers at any one minor league level in his lifetime. So far in his short stint with MLB, his love affair with the game has turned into a tumultuous one.
After getting an opportunity to feel out baseball at its highest level, expectations in 2016 by Twins fans might be higher with adjustments and a greater understanding for the game being in place. Buxton is striking out at an exponentially higher rate than he was in Triple-A. With Rochester, his K% was 20.3. Since joining the Twins, it has jumped up to 32 percent.
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Big league pitching comes with more development and emphasis on off-speed pitches. Opposing arms are peppering Buxton with a high percentage of fastballs in 2015 (57.%), but it’s the sliders and change-ups that are messing with his timing. He’s swinging at 61.8 percent of pitches in the zone and 30.3 percent of offerings outside the umpires’ strike zone. These numbers are right in-line with the league averages of 31.3 and 67 percent, respectively. Where the differentiation factors in is contact percentage. For balls thrown in and out of the zone, the league is putting 65 percent of ones swung at into play. Buxton’s is at only 47.4 percent.
Byron Buxton might have the tools to one day be an All-Star outfielder, but right now his hand speed and approach at the plate are nowhere near the likes of Seager, Correa or even another Twins top prospect in Miguel Sano. The best way for Buxton to improve is to take live at-bats in games. He can train all he wants in the offseason and hit in the cages until his hands fall off, but he won’t be seeing a Chris Archer slider or Zack Greinke change-up during those sessions.
If Buxton cracks the 25-man roster for the Minnesota Twins next April, it won’t be a breaking headline. If he doesn’t, it will make for bigger news. Either way, it’s going to take him some time to find his groove at the plate after this winter’s hiatus. If you’re looking to hold onto a Twins batter in your fantasy baseball keeper league, Sano or Brian Dozier is your man.
Buxton needs to register only 14 more at-bats in 2015 to activate his rookie status. If he does so, expect and extended slump well into his possibly sophomore season.