Red Sox’s Sam Travis Blocked by Logjam at 1B?
Boston Red Sox fans have been looking forward to 2016 since, what, July? June? Perhaps the greatest joy in a Red Sox fan’s life at this point is watching the Sox make the Yankees miserable.
Fortunately, the Red Sox’s future looks bright. Yes, designated hitter David Ortiz joined the 500 Home Run Club, but young players such as outfielders Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. and shortstop Xander Bogaerts had productive seasons and are expected to form the core of the team’s future.
But there’s even more talent on the way. As it stands right now, Boston has six players ranked in the top-100 of MLB.com’s prospects, and that number might go up. Of the prospects who failed to crack the top-100, first baseman Sam Travis is the most likely to see his name added to the rankings come Spring Training. The 2014 second round pick was voted the Red Sox’s Offensive Player of the Year for his combined .307/.381/.452 line between High-A and Double-A. The most impressive part about his season is that his production was almost identical in each level.
If Travis keeps hitting like this, he won’t be in the minors much longer. The problem then becomes, What will the Red Sox do with him? Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez aren’t worth the profuse amounts of money they were given and might–emphasis on might–be moved to first base, which would block Travis. The franchise could plead and beg and offer to pick up most of their salaries in a trade, but it will be tough to move both.
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Another potential block for Travis is the emergence of first baseman Travis Shaw. Shaw was promoted to the big leagues at the beginning of August and has been the everyday first baseman since Aug. 7—he was also called up in May for a doubleheader and for a few games in June and July. From Aug. 7 through Wednesday, he hit .258/.320/.484 with 11 home runs as the everyday first baseman. That translates to a .343 weighted on base average and 114 wRC+, so he’s been above average in that span.
In terms of overall offensive value, Travis and Shaw are pretty comparable through the season in which they debuted in Double-A, but there are some obvious differences:
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Both players debuted in Double-A the season after they were drafted, so the sample sizes are almost identical. Both players were disciplined hitters. Shaw hit for more power and drew more walks, while Travis gets more out of the balls he puts in play.
What will be very telling is how both players perform in 2016. If Travis opens 2016 in Double-A or Triple-A and immediately excels, then he’ll be ahead of Shaw, who had to spend almost two full seasons worth of plate appearances in Double-A before the Red Sox felt it was time to promote him. Part of that was because Shaw suffered from an uncharacteristically low .262 batting average on balls in play in 2013. When it returned to normal the next season, he hit .305/.406/.548 with 11 home runs in 47 games then was promoted to Triple-A and never looked back.
If Shaw struggles in 2016, then the Red Sox will have a poor man’s version of the Anthony Rizzo–Bryan LaHair scenario the Chicago Cubs faced in 2012. (If you knew who LaHair was without looking him up, give yourself a pat on the back.) If both players play well, then there is a log jam waiting to happen, especially if Ramirez and Sandoval come into the mix.
If we focus on Travis and Shaw, there is what at first seems like an obvious solution; platoon them. Travis hits from the right side of the plate while Shaw is a lefty. Simple , right? Wrong. Travis is a .361 hitter against lefties in his career and a .293 hitter against righties, so he would hit against lefties, but entering play Wednesday Shaw was hitting .329 against lefties but only .240 against righties. Both can’t play against southpaws.
It was a disappointing season in Boston on the diamond, and if that wasn’t enough, beloved play-by-play man Don Orsillo will be calling Padres games next year. But the future does have some promise, and first base might be the next piece to fit.