In a year of tremendous turnarounds from a season ago, the Arizona Diamondbacks have been lost in the shuffle with the Houston Astros, Minnesota Twins, Chicago Cubs and Texas Rangers all improving greatly over their 2014 records. The difference between Arizona and the aforementioned teams is that as the final weekend of the regular season begins, the Diamondbacks are not in playoff contention. With a solid bullpen largely intact, the DBacks farm system will help to replenish the arms in their rotation, pushing them into the realm of playoff contenders next season.
The Arizona offense is not a question. Led by Paul Goldschimdt, the Diamondbacks have scored the second-most runs in the National League with 708, just 11 behind Colorado for the top spot. That 708 total is good for 7th in baseball as is their team batting average of .264 while the cumulative on-base percentage ranks 8th at .324.
The bullpen has been stellar this season, ranking 4th in the NL (8th overall) with a 3.41 ERA, trailing Pittsburgh, St. Louis and San Francisco. The Pirates and Cardinals have the two best records in baseball, while the Giants announced that one of their longtime relievers, Jeremy Affeldt, will be retiring after the season. David Hernandez (1-5, 4.36) is the only bullpen arm whose contract is up for Arizona at the end of the season, meaning Arizona has a good shot at sticking around the top three a year from now.
The question mark heading into the offseason for Arizona will be their starting rotation. While Rubby De La Rosa has accumulated 14 wins for the team and has a chance to add one more on Friday night against the Astros De La Rosa also has an ERA of 4.56 and has been plagued by the long ball this season, giving up 31 round-trippers. Again, he’s facing the Astros on Friday, so that number also has a good chance of going up.
There is hope for the rotation moving forward, however, as Zack Godley has performed very well in six starts, earning a 3.03 ERA. Patrick Corbin has been another solid contributor, posting a 3.60 ERA over 16 starts, and could earn the opening day nod. Jeremy Hellickson will be in the rotation, with Robbie Ray as another option, but it’s Archie Bradley that could give the team a big boost with his plus fastball and curveball. Bradley struggled on the whole over 8 big league starts this season, going 2-3 with a 5.80 ERA over 35 2/3 innings before injury took him out of the Majors. When Bradley returned, it was to Triple-A Reno where he posted a 1-0 record with a 2.95 ERA. Bradley is still just 23-years-old.
Aaron Blair is another name that could enter the mix during spring training, or if an injury occurs. The 23-year-old righty spent his season split between Double-A Mobile and Reno, combining for a 13-5 record and a 2.92 ERA to go along with a 1.17 WHIP. After totaling just 77 innings in Triple-A, Blair may need some extra time in the Minor Leagues before he’s ready to join the Diamondbacks rotation, but once he’s there, MLB Pipeline projects him as a middle-of-the-rotation starter.
One area of concern for Arizona moving forward will be how they’ve performed against the NL playoff teams. Aside from the six wins they have against the Dodgers in 19 chances, the DBacks have just five wins against the combination of the Pirates (1-5), Cubs (2-4), Mets (2-5) and Cardinals (0-7), the other NL playoff teams. That’s a 5-21 record with the team ERA hovering between 3.90 to 4.82 against those four opponents. On the bright side, the team holds a winning record within their own division at 39-37, and depending upon how the Giants/Rockies series plays out, Arizona could end the season with the second-most wins in intradivision play in the NL West behind the Dodgers.
Sitting three games below .500 with three games to play, the 2015 season should be viewed as a success in the desert. With a solid free agent signing, potentially at third base where production has been lacking between a plethora of options, an addition like David Freese, who has had a good season but nothing particularly flashy (.260, 14 HR, 56 RBI), could see his offensive numbers go up playing in Chase Field in a solid DBacks lineup.
The key in 2016 will be improved play against better teams, and that all starts 60 feet, 6 inches away from home plate.