MLB Playoffs: Astros, Angels realize value of "just getting in"

As major league baseball moves into its final weekend, postseason predictions are sure to follow. Naturally, teams that declared their postseason qualifications emphatically – be it with a late-summer roar (Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers), or a season of sustained excellence (St. Louis Cardinals, Kansas City Royals) are likely to garner the most attention and be considered favorites to enjoy a deep run. The excellent pitching staffs of the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets and Chicago Cubs will surely mean those teams force their way into some experts’ picks for a World Series appearance as well, while the balance and potency of the Pittsburgh Pirates makes them a team few should ignore. The New York Yankees don’t look like a World Series champion, but they’re the New York Yankees after all, so they’ll be on people’s minds.

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The team most likely to be overlooked in this year’s playoffs seems to be the team that will be the last to qualify. While the Minnesota Twins are still mathematically alive for the last AL Wild Card spot, they face an uphill battle and their chances of leapfrogging both the Houston Astros and the Los Angeles Angels are remote (ESPN places the Twins as 0.1% likely to qualify for the postseason as of today) meaning that we’re looking at either the Astros or Angels in that last spot.

Whichever one of these teams gets in – they are likely to be viewed as cannon fodder.

Especially when you consider that they will start on the road in Yankee Stadium against Masahiro Tanaka and the Yanks in the Wild Card game and, should they survive that, then proceed to the Rogers Centre to play the powerful Blue Jays.

The Astros have went 12-16 since the start of September and surrendered their AL West lead to the Rangers, which they are unlikely to get back. The Angels meanwhile have went 19-10 since September 1st and have been playing great, but face serious questions with their pitching, which the Blue Jays absolutely obliterated in a series from August 21-23.

But the Angels also had the best record in baseball just last year, and they have Mike Trout and Albert Pujols. The Astros, for their part, won a game 21-5 last night. Even though it was against a non-playoff team in the Arizona Diamondbacks, any time a MLB team with playoff aspirations scores three converted touchdowns this close to the playoffs, it’s worth taking notice, especially if that team features a Cy Young contender and 20-game winner like Dallas Keuchel.

The Astros are likely to be the last team to qualify for the postseason by the time Sunday rolls around, based on the standings at the moment. But whether it’s the Astros or Angels that end up squeezing in, they are unlikely to be the World Series pick for all but a scant few. Perhaps for good reason. But by this point, baseball fans are well aware that last year’s two Series finalists were both Wild Card teams. Clearly, just having a seat at the table is far more important than how you got it.

“Anything can happen then,” observed Angels third baseman David Freese. “You look back on the season and wish you did this or that early on; it’s just human nature to do that. But when you’re in a position to get in, that’s all you can ask for.”

There’s a real divide in opinion when it comes to assigning value to home field advantage in the playoffs. Some insist it’s crucial; others dismiss it as essentially inconsequential. The truth seems to be in between: it’s helpful, but it can most certainly be overcome if the road team is playing at a high level when the postseason begins.

At the very least, the recent past has shown that simply because a team is the last to be invited to the MLB playoff party, it doesn’t mean that they have to be the first to leave.

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