Cubs, Astros Prove Early 2015 Predictions Wrong
Now that the regular season is officially over and the postseason picture is clear, I feel it is pertinent to humble myself and discuss how some of my early predictions flat out failed. Some were minor failures and some were colossal busts. Please hold your ridicule to the end…
If you are a fan of either of these teams and you believe your future is bright, then you’ve been deceived, because both are putting their salvation in the notion that all outs are created equal. (On the Cubs and Astros’ futures and 2015 development)
In this post, I discussed how the Astros and Cubs were building their teams on players who struck out a lot and how that wasn’t a reliable way to build a postseason contender. Well, both teams made the playoffs and the Cubs won 97 games.
Just like last year, the Cubs and Astros had the highest strikeout rates in the majors and middle of the road in OBP. But the Astros still scored the sixth most runs in the majors and were secoind in home runs. The Cubs were a middle of the road offense in terms of runs scored but they had one of the better pitching staffs in the league. Kris Bryant will be the National League Rookie of the Year.
I really whiffed on this one.
Yes, the Rays have pitching depth in the minor leagues. But it’s not ready to help them compete … (On the Rays pitching chances in 2015)
Nate Karns, Alex Colome, Matt Andriese and Erasmo Ramirez were overall decent pitchers this year and helped the Rays fill in with Alex Cobb out and Matt Moore contributing only 12 starts. The Rays pitching staff combined was actually better than average in several categories—as a team, the Rays were better than the major league average in ERA, FIP, WHIP and K/BB. If it weren’t for an inept offense, this team might have surprised some people.
Brewers Future Highlighted by Jimmy Nelson (Headline from February)
Orlando Arcia and Taylor Jungmann would’ve been more appropriate in that headline. Arcia had an incredible season in Double-A and Jungmann will probably get ROY votes after a 9-8, 3.77 ERA, 1.28 WHIP season. He faded a bit down the stretch, but it was a productive season for the rookie.
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The much improved team also has a farm system that is ready to infuse the veteran core with youthful energy. (On the White Sox)
Was there a more lifeless team this season than the White Sox? Other than Chris Sale and Jose Abreu, this whole team could be considered a bust. As far as the “youthful energy” the farm was supposed to provide, it never showed. Second baseman Micah Johnson was much better in Triple-A (.315 AVG/ .375 OBP/ .466 SLG) than he was in the majors (.230/.306/.270) and Carlos Sanchez had a dismal season (.224/.268/.326) as his replacement. Prized pitching prospect Carlos Rodon struggled mightily at times this season, but the Sox stuck with him and he ended his season on a hot stretch with a 1.81 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over his last eight starts. Rodon is a potential breakout candidate in 2016.
Yes, fans may be upset, but the Indians are smart to keep Lindor in the minors for three reasons:… As I mentioned above, the Indians have another great young option ready to take over at shortstop in Jose Ramirez. (On the Indians keeping Lindor in the minors to start the season)
Francisco Lindor will probably win the AL ROY and might be the best defensive shortstop in the majors. Ramirez…wasn’t. The team played well after Lindor was promoted and even threatened to shake up the Wild Card picture in the American League. If they had called up Lindor sooner, they might’ve made it.
Cubs, Blue Jays Have Differing Approaches with Prospects (Headline from just before Opening Day)
In this analysis, I was dissecting how the Cubs were sending all of its top prospects to the minors while the Blue Jays opened the season with six rookies on the roster. Which strategy would deliver? Within a few weeks, the Cubs called up Bryant and Russell, and they never looked back. The Cubs relied on one of the best young infields in history and a great pitching staff and, well, you know the rest.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays prospects got reduced roles, were sent to the minors or traded—in Daniel Norris’s case, all three—and the team added experience at the trade deadline in the form of Troy Tulowitzki, David Price et. al., to win the AL East.