MLB 2016 Rookie Class: Better Crop of Hitters or Pitchers?
Prospects swarmed the majors this season, and they’re still having significant impact on games, even in the playoffs. Tuesday night, Astros wonderboy shortstop Carlos Correa made an impressive play up the middle to rob Chris Young of a hit in the Astros’ American League Wild Card Game win over the Yankees that killed a rally. Last night, Cubs clubber Kyle Schwarber drove in three runs in the North Siders’ win over the Pirates.
The deluge of young talent has been well documented, but just for enjoyment’s sake, let’s consider how many prospects graduated and had noteworthy big league debuts:
- According to FanGraphs, the average major league hitter had a weighted on base average of .313 and a wRC+ of 96. Among rookies with at least 150 plate appearances, 38 had a better than average wOBA and 38 had a better than average wRC+.
- Among starting pitchers, FanGraphs had the major league average ERA at 4.10, Fielding Independent Pitching at 4.03 and strikeout-to-walk ratio at 2.73. Among rookie starters with at least 50 innings pitched, 25 had a better than average ERA, 16 had a better FIP and 11 had a better K/BB.
- Among rookie relief pitchers, 44 had a better than league average ERA (3.71) and 37 had a better FIP (3.83) and K/BB (2.56).
This should not be taken to mean that almost every rookie to make it to the majors was better than the average established major leaguer. For example, 150 plate appearances is a very small sample size and 66 rookies had at least that many, so there were still plenty of them who struggled.
The first thing that jumps out from the above stated factoids is rookie relievers got a lot of chances to pitch. This comes as no surprise since relief pitcher usage is at the highest level in baseball’s history.
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The second thing that jumps out is that rookie hitters had a more widespread impact on the game. If you look across major league rosters this season, it takes minimal effort to find high impact rookie hitters; from Kris Bryant to Matt Duffy to Correa to Francisco Lindor to Miguel Sano to Michael Conforto to Schwarber; but the list of pitchers thins out more quickly; Noah Syndergaard, Lance McCullers, and so on.
In 2014, the number of above average rookies was almost equal; 18 hitters had a better than average wOBA and 19 had a better than average wRC+; while 15 pitchers had a better than average ERA and K/BB and 18 had a better than average FIP.
With this in mind, forecasting which group of rookies will have a bigger impact in 2016 promises to be a fun exercise. Will it be the hitters or the pitchers? Let’s start by looking at some potential rookies who could make an impact with their bats…
Next: 2016's Hitters
This group features players who have already played in the majors but still have their rookie eligibility intact. Twins outfielder Byron Buxton, Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager, Rangers first baseman/designated hitter Joey Gallo and Nationals shortstop Trea Turner are among those who have seen major league action and will most likely be in the majors for significant time in 2016.
Buxton is generally considered the No. 1 prospect in the game, and even though he dealt with some injuries and struggled at times, he gives the position players a great foundation. Seager is playing splendidly taking over for Jimmy Rollins in Chavez Ravine and could be 2016’s Joc Pederson and Trea Turner will likely be the Nationals’ everyday shortstop next year with Ian Desmond heading for free agency.
Other prospects to potentially make the jump to the majors include Phillies shortstop J.P. Crawford, Brewers shortstop Orlando Arcia, Rangers outfielder Nomar Mazara, Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge, Reds outfielder Jesse Winker and Pirates first baseman Josh Bell.
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I argued mid-season that Crawford is the new No. 1 prospect in the game, although since Buxton and Seager are technically still “prospects,” they remain ranked ahead of Crawford. Arcia could be for the Brewers what Lindor was for the Indians, Mazara’s skills are so good the Rangers deemed him untouchable in the Cole Hamels trade and Bell can flat out hit, even though he lacks the power typically required of a first baseman.
This group of prospects, and the many others on the doorstep of the majors, is a very talented group, but it doesn’t immediately stand out like 2015’s class did. It will be tough to beat the combined top-level production of Bryant, Correa and Lindor, and the depth of 2015’s rookie class will be tough to match. That doesn’t diminish the potential of 2016’s rookie class. There will be lots of All-Star Game appearances in their future, and the potential for extraordinary depth is there, but can we expect 38 rookies to above average again?
Now, on to the pitchers…
Next: 2016's Pitchers
The pitchers have a very talented mix of prospects, just like the hitters. The Nationals’ Lucas Giolito has a significant following that considers him the best prospect in the game, even ahead of Seager and Buxton, and he might be promoted aggressively considering Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister are free agents at the conclusion of the World Series. Tyler Glasnow was in the same draft class as Pirate ace and last night’s loser Gerrit Cole and has dominated the minor leagues, especially the past two seasons. Another solid half season—month?—in the minors and he’ll join Cole in the Pirates rotation. Rays prospect Blake Snell was Baseball America’s 2015 Minor League Player of the Year after he pitched in three different levels of the minors. He has a good shot to pitch in a Rays rotation that exceed expectations in 2015.
Other names like Jose Berrios, Robert Stephenson and Julio Urias will likely see some big league time. Berrios’ K/BB improved for the second straight season and his combined 2015 ERA of 2.87 means he has little left to prove in the minors. Stephenson had an up and down season, but he showed signs that he can control his electric right arm. Urias was promoted to Triple-A just before the season ended and made two forgettable starts, but he’s only 19 years old and has dominated the lower levels of the minors.
The Arizona Diamondbacks might have three impact rookies in 2016; Archie Bradley made the 2015 major league roster out of Spring Training but was hit in the head by a line drive and experienced shoulder trouble; Aaron Blair had an incredible 2015 that included 12 starts in Triple-A, where he posted a 3.16 ERA, and a trip to the Pan Am Games; and Braden Shipley had a strong final month-and-a-half of the season where he had a 2.08 ERA and 3.77 K/BB over his final nine appearances.
Throw in the Astros’ Mark Appel, the White Sox’s Francelis Montas and the Mets’ Steven Matz, and 2016’s rookie class looks like it could be an exceptional group.
Next: The Verdict
This is a tough choice.
Gioltio, Glasnow and Snell are good enough to be a pitchers version of Bryant/Correa/Lindor. At first glance, it looks like the upper tier of the pitchers is better than it is for the hitters. Add in Urias and Berrios, and it looks that way even more so.
What hurts the pitchers is the uncertainty of some of the prospects. Bradley has been on prospect lists for what seems like an eternity and has yet to really break through and Stephenson’s control problems are cause for concern. Appel hasn’t quite performed as someone who was picked in the first round twice would be expected to perform.
The hitters also have their share of uncertainty. Will Gallo put the ball in play enough to utilize his prodigious power? Will Buxton be able to stay healthy? Will Arcia and Crawford be ready to make the jump in 2016 or will they have to wait until September or even 2017?
I’m tempted to make a similar argument for the position players that I used to support my pick for Crawford as the best prospect in the game: position players have a larger impact because they play every day as opposed to pitching every fifth or sixth day, and therefore have more opportunities to create positive value. But, I’m going to say the pitcher’s rookie class will be slightly better than the hitters’. The top tier of pitchers has more plus-plus talent that will manifest itself in the majors than the top tier of hitters.
But that’s me, and now that I’m writing it down I don’t know if I’m 100 percent sure about it. 2015’s rookie class was fun, and now I can’t wait to see who will be in 2016’s.