Minnesota Twins: Could Byron Buxton Break Out in 2016?
By Jason Burke
For three years Byron Buxton has been atop the prospect lists and has enjoyed some time in the majors, but never quite got it going once joining the Minnesota Twins back in June. Buxton was forced into the big leagues due to injuries, and Minnesota was likely looking for their own version of Carlos Correa or Francisco Lindor to help give them a boost with the team in the playoff hunt. That isn’t what happened, as the 21-year-old hit just .189, striking out in 15 of his 37 at-bats before an injury ended his initial stint in the majors.
Buxton would miss a month and a half before reporting to Triple-A for a quick two week stint before rejoining the Twins for the remainder of the season. He would again struggle, but hit .227 in both August and September, which included his first two big league blasts. All in all, one could view Buxton’s big coming out party as a disappointment, but after missing time with injuries in each of the last two years, it’s hard to really develop at the pace that everyone is expecting of him.
Along with the injuries, the presumed savior of the Twins has only played in 60 games at the Double-A level and 13 at Triple-A, with all, save for one game in Double-A Chattanooga last season, coming in 2015. By comparison, Buxton played in 46 games at the major league level this season. Essentially he has been plucked from High-A ball, where he has accumulated 387 plate appearances, and been thrust into the major league spotlight and expected to succeed. Offensively, that is absurd. Defensively, he put up a 0.6 dWAR in a limited number of games, which is highly encouraging.
Another encouraging factor comes when you compare Buxton to another recent top outfield prospect. Here is a comparison of the two player’s minor league totals.
Player A: 276 games/.301 batting average/.383 OBP/28 home runs/158 RBI
Player B: 286 games/.342 batting average/.425 OBP/139 home runs/397 RBI
It should come as no surprise that Player B is Mike Trout, and yes, his numbers obviously trump those that Buxton has put up in roughly the same number of games. Yet, Trout is a once in a generation talent. Yes, Trout was already tearing up the majors by the time he was 21, but some players take a little longer to mature. The Oakland A’s have made an organization out of undervalued late bloomers, and it seems to be working out well for them most years. Collin McHugh and Cy Young candidate Dallas Keuchel didn’t really come around until their age 27 and 26 seasons, so lets not rush to judgement on Buxton just yet.
For a little more hope, Trout also struggled in his first go-around in the bigs, batting .220 with a .281 OBP, 5 homers and 16 RBI over 123 at-bats, so it didn’t even come easily to the best player on the planet at first. Barring injury and a full season in the bigs, Buxton could be looking at 12-15 homers, 55-60 RBI, a .260 batting average and a .320 on-base percentage in 2016, which would both show tremendous progress and potentially earn the Twins a wild card berth.
There is still plenty to be hopeful about in Minnesota, and 2016 should be a great building block season for Byron Buxton and the team moving forward.