NLDS Game 3 Preview: Cubs vs. Cardinals

On Monday night, the Cubs and Cardinals will meet at Wrigley Field for Game 3 of the NLDS. To start the series the Cardinals took Game 1 by a score of 4-0. This win was punctuated by a 3-run bottom of the 8th. In that inning both Tommy Pham and Stephen Piscotty hit home runs, and the Cardinals were able to cruise to victory. The Cubs fired back with a 6-3 win in Game 2. Joe Maddon used small ball to get on the board in the second, but it was a two-run homer by Jorge Soler that provided the separation that was needed.

So what should we expect from these two teams heading into Game 3? In particular, what can we learn from looking at the pitching matchup? Both of the starting pitchers, Wacha and Arrieta, have faced their opponent four times in 2015. Can those four starts tell us anything about what we should expect tonight? With all of the necessary caveats about small sample sizes, what has this season taught us about this matchup?

Michael Wacha vs. the Cubs

As stated above Wacha started four games against the Cubs this season. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, he did not have much success. In those four starts he went 1-2 with a 6.86 ERA. Things only get uglier from there. As a team, the Cubs hit .301/.376/.542 against Wacha. He truck out twenty, walked ten and gave up four home runs in those outings.

Wacha’s best start against the Cubs came on June 27. This was Wacha’s only win against Chicago this year as he gave up 1 ER over 6 IP. His other three starts left a lot to be desired. In all three appearances he gave up at least 4 ER to Chicago hitters and never made it past the 6th inning. Yes, we’re only dealing with four starts, but if you’re looking for trends this doesn’t look good for St. Louis.

Hitters to Watch

Based on their 2015 performance, which hitters should we expect to make an impact tonight?

1. Starlin Castro

Castro had a below average offensive season, but that was not he case when he faced Wacha. He was able to hit .455/.500/.818 in 11 AB against the St. Louis starter. Rarely do you expect Castro to be an important offensive piece for the Cubs. However, he’s hit Wacha really well this year and could make some noise.

2. Kris Bryant

The much hyped rookie had the best offensive season of any Cub not named Anthony Rizzo. His success in 2015 extended to his at-bats against Wacha. In 10 AB, Bryant hit .300/.364/.900 (!) with 1 HR and 3 RBI. It’s not much of a surprise to say that Bryant is important to the Cubs offensively, but given his success against Wacha you should expect similar success tonight.

3. Anthony Rizzo

The above mentioned Rizzo torched Michael Wacha this year. In 10 AB Rizzo hit an incredible .545/.545/.818. Rizzo has been great this year, and it looks like you could expect similar success.

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Jake Arrieta vs. the Cardinals

By now you’re probably familiar with Arrieta’s numbers. As Nancy Armour reminded us on Sunday, “He’s 17-1 over his last 21 starts…he hasn’t lost a game since July 25. His 0.41 ERA from Aug. 4 to the end of the regular season is the lowest since Major League Baseball started keeping the stat way back in 1913.” Jake Arrieta has been unhittable in the second half of the season. So what hope does the Cardinals lineup have tonight? Let’s look at how they fared against Arrieta in 2015.

The Cardinals had more success against Arrieta than other teams, but when it comes to facing Arrieta “success” is a relative term. In four starts against the Cardinals, Arrieta went 2-1 with a 2.42 ERA. As a team the Cardinals hit .229/.288/.313 against him. In three of his starts against St. Louis, Arrieta was able to go at least 6.2 IP and in those starts he gave up no more than 2 ER. The one bright spot for the Cardinals against Arrieta came on May 7. In an outcome that is almost unthinkable at this point, the Cardinals were able to score 4 ER in 5.1 innings. That’s a best case scenario for the Cards tonight, but it’s hard to expect that output with how good Arrieta’s been lately.

Hitters to Watch

1. Jason Heyward

Of the Cardinals who have faced Arrieta more than a couple of times, Heyward has had the most success. In 12 AB this season he’s hit .333/.333/.333 against Arrieta. Honestly, with how good Arrieta has been lately that line looks really impressive. Heyward isn’t normally the Cardinals’ best offensive weapon, but in the opportunities this lineup has had against Jake Arrieta this season… he’s been the best.

2. Kolten Wong

Again, against Arrieta success is relative. .250/.250/.333 isn’t the expected line of a good offensive player. However, against Arrieta it’s about as good as it gets for the Cards. Needless to say these kinds of stats shouldn’t be inspiring a lot of confidence in St. Louis fans.

Baseball is unpredictable. As I write this the Texas Rangers are trying to sweep the Toronto Blue Jays out of the playoffs. That sentence seemed like an impossibility a week ago. Anything could happen tonight. But if recent history has taught us anything its that you shouldn’t bet against the Cubs when Jake Arrieta is on the hill. The pitching matchup seems to point to a 2-1 Cubs lead in the series, and that would give them a chance to close out the Cardinals at Wrigley on Tuesday.

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