MLB Top Prospects Watch: AL East offseason report
Oct 8, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; General view of past Toronto Blue Jays banners representing past American League and World Series championships prior to game one of the ALDS against the Texas Rangers at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
In the last six seasons, every team in the American League East has laid claim to a division title. This years honor went to the Toronto Blue Jays. While it was a great thing for baseball in Canada, the Jays probably have the thinnest farm program in the division, whether fans and executives are willing to admit it or not.
The stakes geared towards a new road for the 2016 division champions won’t be entirely fueled by a minor league surge, but with the way young players are adapting so well to the game these days, it couldn’t possibly hurt any of the five clubs chances.
Once considered the most competitive division in MLB for years at a time, the AL east saw somewhat of a return to glory in 2015. Two teams punched tickets to the postseason this year and the group combined for the most collective wins by a division in the American League (419).
Baseball has a short offseason, as pitchers and catchers begin reporting a little under four months from now. The offseason brings with it the excitement of many organizations reshuffling the deck by executing trades and signing free agents. This is partially because of the wealth of depth each organization has across many levels of the game. Some of the names featured here could very well be on the move before Spring Training. Here are the top five to keep an eye on in the AL East.
Next: Baltimore Orioles
RHP Hunter Harvey – BAL
Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Major League Baseball ETA: 2017
MLB Overall Rank: No. 60
With Dylan Bundy battling aggravations and injuries, it’s Hunter Harvey who will likely enter 2016 as the shiniest tractor on Baltimore’s farm. The Orioles need pitching, too. But even more than any old, serviceable kind of pitching, the O’s need for some of their draft picks to develop into top shelf hurlers at the big league level.
Feb 25, 2015; Sarasota, FL, USA; Baltimore Orioles pitcher
Hunter Harveygets ready on the mound during spring training workouts at d Smith Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
Unlike Bundy, Harvey has not gone under the knife for surgery on his throwing elbow. But the 20-year-old was shut down in May for elbow tightness before the MiLB season began. Harvey held down a tidy 3.18 ERA in 2014 with the High-A Delmarva Shorebirds. His peripheral numbers were strong as well with a 10.9 K/9, 3.21 K:BB ratio and having surrendered only five home runs across 87.2 IP.
Harvey’s best offering is a fastball that can touch 95 mph. Mixing in a big league level curveball with a sufficient change-up, the youngster’s three pitch mix has frontline starter written all over it, as does his pedigree. Harvey’s father was two-time All-Star closer Bryan Harvey.
Keeping Harvey healthy will be a key component of him achieving success in the show, as will the Orioles breaking a drought that now stands at 16 seasons and counting. Mike Mussina in 1999 was the last starting pitcher drafted by the Orioles to be named to an All-Star squad.
Rarely does elbow discomfort disappear into thin air with a pitcher possessing Harvey’s velocity and the tension placed on it from his curveball. He has age working on his side, but after speculation about him seeing action in the Arizona Fall League at some point, that window is quickly closing. Neither he nor Bundy have participated in live game action this year, with the AFL season set to end in mid-November.
Next: Boston Red Sox
INF Yoan Moncada – BOS
Mandatory Credit: Rob Foldy-USA TODAY Sports
Major League Baseball ETA: 2017
MLB Overall Rank: No. 8
Much was made about the Red Sox inking Yoan Moncada. A touted Cuban national, it will take the youngster some time to acclimate to life in the United States. On American soil since only June of 2014, Moncada began his pro ball career in Class-A with the Greenville Drive, ending the year there as well. He only played in 81 games and reportedly will not be in attendance at any winter ball leagues this offseason because of a hand injury.
Set to turn 21 next May, Moncada is no Mike Trout or Bryce Harper in terms of his ability right now, though the potential is there. In the first half of Greenville’s season, he slashed a measly .200/.287/.289. Given the level of competition, it looked like Boston might have spent frivolously. In the second half, Moncada revved things up with a .310/.415/.500 line, seven home runs and 45 stolen bases.
Clearly, his game has to evolve more for Moncada to be in an MLB lineup every day. The hand injury won’t help speed up the process of his development. Also, the Red Sox have him playing second base in the minors. Given that Dustin Pedroia is under contract through 2021, shortstop Xander Bogaerts through 2020 and third baseman Pablo Sandoval through 2020, there might not be an infield spot for Moncada to play in the near future.
A trade could free up a spot in the infield because Moncada won’t be a strong enough hitter early on to play at DH. Trying him in the outfield could be an option as well. There’s still a logjam there, but Boston moving Hanley Ramirez to first base could very well be Moncada’s Opening Day position a few years from now. Not that fielding in front of the Green Monster requires a lot of range or anything, scouts do grade Moncada’s best tool as being his legs and speed. Tracking down balls in the outfield might come naturally to him.
Next: New York Yankees
OF Aaron Judge – NYY
Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Major League Baseball ETA: 2016
MLB Overall Rank: No. 17
The Bronx Bombers were able to get a solid look at former top prospect, Luis Severino, in the second half of 2015. With all the long toothed position players in pinstripes these days, the Yankees should consider themselves fortunate to have a player like Aaron Judge in the system, especially after having already called up Gregory Bird in 2015 as well.
Judge is one of four position players who ranks inside the Yankees’ top five prospects. He has talent like the rest of them, but his physical grades are off the chart. At 6-foot-7 and 275 lbs, it’s tough to believe he is competent at roaming the outfield. Judge played college ball at Fresno State where he was a freshman All-American in 2011. New York then selected him late in the first round of 2013. He dabbled in High-A and the Arizona Fall League in 2014 and found himself playing Triple-A by the end of the 2015 season.
His stature and raw power have drawn comparisons with Giancarlo Stanton to Judge, but he’s going to have to progress drastically in 2016 as a 24-year-old if he hopes to make the same impact Stanton did in his age 24 season with the Marlins (.288-37-105), already his fifth year of service. Judge hit only .224 in 61 Triple-A contests. He managed eight home runs and 28 RBI, but the contact just wasn’t there. He struck out in 28.4 percent of his plate appearances and only drew 29 walks.
Power and arm strength are Judge’s best tools. His .977 fielding percentage in two minor league seasons playing right field is average. If you’re looking to future markets for your fantasy baseball keeper league, Judge could very well be the second coming of an Adam Dunn in his prime, where the three true outcomes will reign supreme.
Next: Tampa Bay Rays
SS Willy Adames – TBR
Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Major League Baseball ETA: 2018
MLB Overall Rank: No. 37
Kevin Cash did remarkably well in his first season managing a Major League club. The Tampa Bay Rays finished only two games below .500 despite missing key elements of their roster for a large portion of the season. Mikie Mahtook made his debut in April and put together a strong performance in a utility capacity. Now the attention turns to a 20-year-old shortstop from the Dominican Republic, Willy Adames.
Adames has good size at 6-foot-1 and throws well to first base, but lacks range and an excellent first step. For most prospect junkies, this small market chip won’t be on a lot of people’s radars, though he’s the reason the Rays have neglected handing out any long-term deals to shortstops in the last while. The team has started five different ones dating back to 2010. There’s been little consistency at the spot. Though he was only recently brought over as a piece in the David Price trade with the Tigers, management is confident Adames can turn into a future staple in their lineup.
Playing High-A ball this year with the Charlotte Stone Crabs, Adames put up numbers that would juxtapose nicely aside Yoan Moncada’s. He slashed .258/.342/.379 and hit four homers to go with 46 RBI in 106 games. His 150 total bases ranked 25th in the Florida State League despite having hit only four round trippers, so he is capable of driving the ball to the gap. Adames finished sixth in working the count for a walk, showing he possesses an above average eye at the plate, which is exactly Tampa Bay’s brand of baseball.
Next: Toronto Blue Jays
RHP Jonathan Harris – TOR
Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Major League Basbeall ETA: 2018
MLB Overall Rank: No. 80
The Blue Jays finally made a run at a World Series after 22 long seasons. While the minor league reserves were depleted to acquire the likes of, first Josh Donaldson, followed by Troy Tulowitzki and David Price, outing GM Alex Anthopoulous still believes there is enough talent within the depths of the organization.
One player he probably is referring to is pitcher Jonathan Harris. A wiry 6-foot-3, 160 pounder from the state of Missouri’s pitching factory, he did nothing special with the Vancouver Canadians in Class-A short ball this year, compiling a 6.75 ERA in six starts.
The freshly turned 22-year-old could add some muscle mass in years to come which might elevate his fastball beyond the typical 92-94 mph it sits at right now. Harris’ curveball, slider and change-up give way to the notion he belongs in a rotation, but he needs to be more confident that his stuff can make hitters miss. His 32 K’s in 26 innings translates nicely, but the .318 BAA the Northwest League was unacceptable. If things go mostly unchanged, Harris will likely be relegated to a bullpen role in the majors when/if he arrives.
There are other names to consider here like catcher Max Pentecost, but the one name in the Jays’ system that has most people talking about is only 16. Vladimir Guerrero‘s son was signed by Toronto and he’s been working out at third base thus far. The bloodlines are definitely promising and many scouts considered Vlad Jr. the best international free agent available in 2015. He is not a strong runner or fielder at the moment, but he probably has not grown into his body yet. If he can be the bad ball hitter anywhere close to the one his father was, Toronto should be enthusiastic about the years ahead.