Now that the Arizona Fall League has been underway for a few weeks, some noteworthy performers are starting to emerge.
On the mound, the St. Louis Cardinals’ Alex Reyes is one such performer. Entering play on Hallows Eve, Reyes had the lowest earned run average (0.77) of any pitcher to throw at least 10 innings and was tied for fourth in the league in strikeouts with 12. The AFL is often used as a launching pad to the majors, and Reyes is beginning the countdown.
Reyes has an incredible array of skills. With his fastball that can touch the upper 90s and a power curveball, Reyes had a combined 13.4 strikeouts per nine innings in the regular season in 2015, an absurdly high number. For context, Pirates prodigy Tyler Glasnow led the Florida State League—where Reyes made 13 starts this season—with 157 strikeouts in 2014, and his K/9 IP was only 11.4.
As is often the case with young pitchers who possess electric arms, Reyes’ brilliance comes with its share of walks. Reyes walked 4.4 batters per nine innings. That number should cause concern about his ability to be a starter in the majors. Most pitchers with that split between strikeouts and walks end up as late-inning door slammers, but the Cardinals are developing Reyes as a starter.
In the past, pitchers such as the Indians’ Trevor Bauer, the Royals’ Yordano Ventura, the Diamondbacks’ Rubby De La Rosa and the Cardinals’ Carlos Martinez have developed into effective starters despite exhibiting similar control problems early in their minor league careers. Some of the best comparisons are either in the minors or just got their first taste of major league action. The Boston Red Sox’s Henry Owens, the San Francisco Giants’ Kyle Crick and the Detroit Tigers’ Daniel Norris have made it to the majors or are on their way their despite high walk rates. Below are some cumulative stats through their first few years in the minors:
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Reyes and Owens are especially close, but their pitching repertoires aren’t very similar and Owens is a left-hander while Reyes is a right-hander. Owens suffered when he pitched in the majors because he gave up home runs at a feeble 1.00 per nine innings, but Reyes has only allowed a homer every 0.3/9 IP in his career.
The best comparison to Reyes’ potential is the aforementioned Martinez. The Cardinals are arguably the best franchise in baseball at drafting and developing talent—in just the pitching staff, Martinez, Michael Wacha, Lance Lynn, Jaime Garcia…deep inhale… Trevor Rosentahl, Kevin Siegrist and Seth Maness were all drafted or signed by the Cardinals and Adam Wainwright arrived via trade while he was still a minor leaguer. They formed the core of the best pitching staff in the majors—unless you’re a Mets fan.
Martinez has an almost identical pitching arsenal as Reyes and was almost as wild. Here are their stats from similar levels of the minors:
As you can see, Martinez significantly lowered his walk rate from year one to year two, while Reyes only had modest improvement. Similarly, Reyes’ K-rate went up while Martinez’s dropped. This could mean that Martinez was toning down on the heat in order to locate his pitches while Reyes continued to let it rip, or it could mean Martinez just improved a great deal very quickly. He still only walked 3.2 batters per nine innings, so the improvements held and served him well.
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Reyes still has work to do. He’s walked seven batters in 11 2/3 innings pitched in the AFL, but he couldn’t be pitching for a franchise more capable of harnessing his skills.