Cubs’ Contreras stays hot in Arizona Fall League
It’s a well known fact the Chicago Cubs have an abundance of great young talent both on the major league roster and in the minor leagues. The Cubs, like the two teams that played in the World Series, won in 2015 largely because of their prospects. They have so much talent that logjams are likely in the middle infield, outfield and third base. Other than Anthony Rizzo at first base, there are few certainties for the future; third baseman Kris Bryant could move to the outfield; the team may have to carve out playing time for Gleyber Torres around Addison Russell, Javier Baez, Starlin Castro and anyone else not traded for pitching; and Billy McKinney, Albert Almora and others will vie for playing time in the outfield.
The only position that isn’t overflowing with talent is catcher. Kyle Schwarber only spent 30 percent of his major league playing time at catcher as the Cubs elected to have him play outfield in order to get his bat into the lineup. Now, there are questions both internally and externally about what position he will play in the future.
That leaves Willson Contreras as the most likely prospect to take over at backstop for the Cubs. Contreras is tearing up the Arizona Fall League, hitting .288/.356/.558 with three home runs for the Mesa Solar Sox. The production he is having is carried over from the incredible improvement he made in the regular season. Here are Contreras’ stats from 2009-14, and then in 2015 for the Double-A Tennessee Smokies:
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As you can see, Contreras made significant strides offensively. The massive jump in BABIP plants the seed of doubt that he benefitted from luck, hitting in an offensive environment, or a combination of both in 2015. However, the Smokies play in the Southern League, which tends to favor pitchers. The Smokies do play in a hitter’s park, but Contreras actually hit better on the road than he did at home in 2015: His home offensive line was .308/.387/.463 and he hit .357/.438/.493 on the road.
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Contreras’s season was so impressive—he was second in the Southern League in weighted on base average and wRC+–that he won the Cubs’ 2015 Minor League Player of the Year.
If his offensive improvements are legitimate, then the only thing keeping him out of the majors is his defensive skillset. Even though he threw out only 28 percent of base stealers in 2015, his arm is considered above average. In the AFL, the Cubs told him to work on communicating with and handling a pitching staff, and Contreras will continue to work on those in 2016.
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With Miguel Montero set to be a free agent after 2017, if Contreras gets a taste of major leagues in 2016, he’ll be in shape to supplement Montero in 2016 and 2017 as the Cubs’ backup catcher and take over full time in 2018.