New York Mets Prospect’s Future is Bright Despite Lack of Power
The Arizona Fall League had its Fall Star Game Saturday night, which the Western Division won 8-3. The AFL and the FSG have some incredible alumni—Andrew McCutchen, Mike Trout, Bryce Harper and Francisco Lindor all have Fall Star Game appearances on their resume—but this year’s contest was missing one the league’s best hitters. New York Mets first base prospect Dominic Smith is second in the league with a .385 batting average, third in on base percentage at .519 and ninth in slugging at .564, but didn’t play due to an injury.
Smith is seen as the future first baseman for the Mets and will be another piece of the young hitting corps taking shape in Queens; outfielder Michael Conforto is a budding star who displayed some postseason fireworks during his rookie season; fellow outfielder Brandon Nimmo will probably make his major league debut sometime in 2016 after a productive 2015; Dilson Herrera could be ready to take over at second base if Daniel Murphy doesn’t accept the Mets’ qualifying offer; and shortstop prospect Gavin Cecchini is climbing prospect rankings.
Right now, Lucas Duda currently has the first base job locked down, but he becomes a free agent after the 2017 season. The timing of that free agency fits nicely with Smith’s development timeline, as Smith has yet to play above High-A. Smith, a career .290/.357/.387 hitter since being drafted 11th overall in 2013, will likely need all of 2016 in the minors and then be ready to make his major league debut in 2017. With some experience under his belt, he’d be ready to take over full time duties in 2018.
That’s the optimistic plan, but there are concerns about Smith offensive profile. As a first baseman, being a power-hitting run producer is more than just a prerequisite: It’s almost essential for being an effective first baseman. Smith has only 10 career home runs in 1,090 minor league at bats, far short of the power the Mets would need from Smith if he were to replace Duda’s 57 combined home runs the past two seasons.
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Smith isn’t the only first base prospect short on power numbers. The Pirates’ Josh Bell, arguably the best first base prospect in the game, has only 30 career home runs in 1,435 at bats—he did hit a home run in the All-Star Future’s Game—but is a career .305 hitter in the minors. (Both are likely to develop average power as the get older, according to scouting reports.) If Smith struggles to develop his power, he would likely be a James Loney-type hitter for the Mets. Loney’s career high in home runs (15) and OPS (.919) came in 2007 when he was a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers. His OPS has never been above .800 since.
Still, Loney has had an impressive career, with a .285/.338/.411 line in 10 seasons. For a comparison on how Smith is faring in his development, here are the career lines of Smith, Bell and Lone through their third professional season:
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Smith, as you can see, is just as consistent and disciplined a hitter as the other two, and he and Bell are strikingly similar in OBP, batting average on balls in play and strikeout rate. The only thing lacking is Smith’s power, as he’s shown the least amount of pop of the three.
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Based purely on his hitting skill, Smith looks like a lock to make the majors. He’s also a steady and talented defender, so the only missing part of his game is the power. Expect him to get at bats in the Mets’ lineup in 2017, and we’ll see if the power shows up later.