MLB Free Agency: Jason Heyward vs. Justin Upton

Which top free agent outfielder is the best bet for interested teams?

If you are a Major League Baseball team with money to spend and a need for an outfielder, two names are likely at the top of your list: Jason Heyward and Justin Upton. Once teammates on the Atlanta Braves, the pair now find themselves competing for free agency dollars.

In several ways, Heyward and Upton share some of the same appealing qualities that make them among this offseason’s most coveted prizes. Both were top-10 outfielders in the National League this year ranked by OPS and WAR. Each is under 30 years of age, an increasing rarity in today’s climate where players typically hit the market closer to their potential decline.

So for an enterprising general manager poised to dive into this winter’s MLB free agency pool, which outfielder is the better investment? It’s hard to imagine either of the clubs that ultimately sign these two being unhappy with their decision when pen is put to paper, but there are some intriguing points of comparison to consider.

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The most significant one might be their respective balance between offense and defense. Heyward and Upton’s slash lines over the past six seasons may not appear tremendously different: .268/.353/.431 (Heyward) vs. .271/.352/.470 (Upton). The area where Upton sets himself apart, however, is in his slugging ability.

Upton swatted 26 homers in 2015 and has averaged 27 over the last three campaigns. He smacked a career-high 31 in 2011 with the Arizona Diamondbacks, the same year he posted an .898 OPS and finished fourth in the NL MVP race.

Though Heyward has shown himself to be a more disciplined hitter than Upton (18.5% strikeout rate to Upton’s 24.0%), he hasn’t quite developed into the middle-of-the-order threat some thought he would be back when he was the crown jewel of the Braves farm system. He reached a robust 27 homers in 2012 but hasn’t exceeded 14 long balls since then.

However, at age 26 – two years Upton’s junior – Heyward could still conceivably make some strides in that area.

The facet of Heyward’s game that garners him the most praise, though, is his stellar defense. He has compiled a UZR/150 of at least 20.0 in each of the past four seasons. Upton, on the other hand, is distinctly less of an asset in the field. He put up a 2.8 UZR/150 this year and had negative marks the three seasons prior.

Heyward’s top-notch glove has helped him maintain impressive WAR totals throughout his six-year career. He’s averaged a 5.2 WAR in that span and is coming off a career-best 6.5 WAR in 2015. In three of his six seasons in the big leagues he has posted a WAR of at least 6.0.

While Upton is not exactly a slouch in that regard either, he sports a more modest average WAR of 2.7 over his nine MLB campaigns. This year’s 4.4 WAR placed him eighth among NL outfielders.

Durability is another crucial factor to consider when handing out mammoth contracts. Having made his debut in 2010 at age 20, Heyward finds himself in the enviable free agency position of not turning 27 until next August. Many speculate that teams will feel far more comfortable giving a ten-year deal to a player who will be 36 at its completion, rather than pushing 40.

Heyward has an injury history that shouldn’t be overlooked, however. He missed time in 2011 due to an inflamed rotator cuff. Injuries, including the fractured jaw that now compels him to wear a face guard on his batting helmet, limited him to 104 games in 2013.

But perhaps the biggest red flag is the degenerative back condition he was diagnosed with prior to the 2011 season. While it doesn’t seem like it has been a major obstacle thus far, health issues that could worsen over time are naturally difficult to predict.

Some players with moderate injury histories seem to fall apart shortly after signing a contract (see Carl Pavano), while others make it through without much incident. Teams worried about Vladimir Guerrero‘s ailing back during his 2003 free agency, but he stayed on the field for the most part throughout his six seasons with the Angels.

Will that seed of doubt be enough to steer clubs away from offering Heyward a ten-year commitment, even with his relative youth? Probably not, but inking Upton at seven or eight years is an alternative worth thinking about. He has averaged 148 games played over the last seven seasons.

Signing a player to a long-term, big-money contract is always a risk regardless of the circumstances. No GM has a crystal ball. That said, Jason Heyward is a vanishing commodity on baseball’s free agent market: a highly skilled, athletic player who is firmly entering their prime and still has upside.

In a worst case scenario, he never finds that bit of extra pop in his bat, while his defensive talents deteriorate. But with the various strengths and positive factors working in his favor, it’s a safe bet that teams looking to spend big on an outfielder will probably consider him first.

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Justin Upton is a compelling candidate in his own right, though, and he will be rewarded with a substantial new deal of his own. He and Heyward each present their own unique lists of pros and cons, and teams will pore through them as they pursue their offseason agendas.