Minnesota Twins’ Playoff Hopes Rest on Jose Berrios, Young Stars

The Twins are making a push for the playoffs, and their success rests in part on the arm of a player who has never pitched in the majors.

The Minnesota Twins were in first place of the American League Central after play on June 7. The Kansas City Royals took a one game lead two days later and never looked back. The Twins may have missed the playoffs, but they continued to photobomb the playoff picture all season, and much like the Cubs and Astros, their success came ahead of schedule.

They don’t seem to be content to wait another year for their host of young players to develop. The Twins signed Korean baseball star Byung Ho Park to be their Designated Hitter and traded Aaron Hicks to make room for Byron Buxton to take over in center field full time, which sends the message to the rest of the AL they are ready to make a playoff push.

The most important player for that push might be pitcher Jose Berrios.

For those who don’t know, Berrios is the Twins’ best pitching prospect and the fourth-ranked right-handed pitcher according to MLB Pipeline. Yes, Berrios hasn’t thrown a single pitch in the majors, but there are several reasons why he is likely to play a large role in 2016.

First, the Twins’ pitching staff was not good enough to be a playoff contender. They were in the bottom half of the AL in earned run average, fielding independent pitching and strikeout-to-walk ratio. The starting rotation itself was very average, finishing in the middle of the pack in all three categories, but the bullpen was in the bottom half of the AL. Berrios finished 2015, which he split between Double- and Triple-A, with a 2.87 ERA and 4.61 K/BB and led the minor leagues with 175 strikeouts. His career FIP is 2.96. He’s the real deal and his presence would make the rotation better.

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The second reason is Berrios is the most high impact minor leaguer the Twins have that is ready to pitch in the majors. Nick Burdi pitched well in the Arizona Fall League, but after that the options are slim. Alex Meyer, who used to be the franchise’s best pitching prospect, struggled in 2015 and was a disaster in the bullpen while Kohl Stewart and Stephen Gonsalves won’t be ready to make the jump to the majors. For a team that already has more than $30 million per year committed to Ervin Santana, Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes—not to mention the $23 million per year owed to Joe Mauer through 2018—the small market Twins need to fill from within or find cheap options on the trade or free agency markets. (Their approach at third base is a good example.)

The third reason is the AL Central is getting better; the Tigers signed top-tier free agent Jordan Zimmermann and are rumored to be in the hunt for another pitcher; the Indians are rumored to be looking to acquire a bat; and the Royals are coming off a World Series title. If the Twins don’t push all their chips into the table, the young players may continue to grow but the team itself could take a step backwards relative to the rest of the division. Berrios could be the Twins’ (much cheaper) answer to the Zimmermann signing.

This isn’t to say Berrios will have the fate of the entire season on his shoulders, as there are other young players who should contribute in 2016. To name a few, Miguel Sano had an incredible rookie season, Jorge Polanco may be ready to take over at shortstop full time and outfielder Adam Brett Walker kept up his impressive power display in the Arizona Fall League.

Berrios’ minor league numbers are impressive, and they compare well to current major leaguers’ performances when they were in the minors. When similar strikeout rates and workloads are considered, names such as Matt Harvey, Chris Archer, Jeremy Hellickson, Carlos Carrasco and Kris Medlen all had comparable seasons to Berrios. They are loose comparisons, but interesting ones regardless.

Next: Marlins No. 1 prospect still years away

Berrios isn’t the only high-profile pitcher on the cusp of the majors: the Pirates’ Tyler Glasnow, the Nationals’ Lucas Giolito and the Tigers’ Michael Fulmer could make the jump to the majors in 2016, but their parent clubs all have legitimate aces. In 2016, Berrios could make his first step to becoming the Twins’ ace.

Stats from Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.com