St. Louis Cardinals Are Equipped to Win in Now and in Future

The St. Louis Cardinals may not be the favorites to win the NL Central next season, but they’ll still be a dangerous team in 2016 and beyond.

Much time on the airwaves and space on the internet has been devoted to stripping the St. Louis Cardinals of their status as favorites to win the National League Central in 2016. The Red Birds’ rivals on the North Side of Chicago have added three of the best free agents on the market to their already talented and successful roster while simultaneously subtracting from the Cardinals.

To put in perspective what the Cubs stole from the Cardinals, when the Cubs signed Jason Heyward and John Lackey, they took the Cardinals’ two leaders in Wins Above Replacement in 2015, according to Baseball-Reference—Heyward had a 6.5 WAR while Lackey had a 5.6.

One wouldn’t be out of place to anoint the Cubs as favorites to win the NL Central, but it is wrong to write off the Cardinals’ chances completely. They weren’t the unanimous favorites to win the division in 2015—many picked the Pittsburgh Pirates—yet they surprised the masses by winning 100 games even though ace Adam Wainwright and left fielder Matt Holliday missed most of the season. The Cardinals have an outstanding reputation of finding players to fill in for departed or hurt players—think Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty last season or Allen Craig taking over at first base after Albert Pujols left after the 2011 season—and they have plenty of options, both on the free agent market and in house, to build a stout team. 

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The Cardinals are not only well off for 2016, but they’ll be scary in the future as well. Much has been made of the Cubs and their matured talent pool, but the Cardinals are well known for drafting and developing talent, especially pitchers. The Cardinals’ rotation features Carlos Martinez, Michael Wacha, Lance Lynn and Jaime Garcia, all of whom are home grown Cardinal products. Tim Cooney, Tyler Lyons and Marco Gonzales, also home growns, will provide depth should significant injuries occur.

Looking further into the future, the Cardinals have a lot of good pitchers coming down the line. The most notable is Alex Reyes, who will serve a hefty suspension for testing positive for a drug of abuse, but the righty has turned into a potential front-line starter. In 2015 he struck out 13.4 batters per nine innings and cut his walk rate down to 4.4/9IP from 5.0 in 2014.

After Reyes, the Cardinals should see Jack Flaherty, Luke Weaver, Ronnie Williams and Jake Woodford all arrive between 2017 and 2019. Here’s the quick hits on each of them:

• Flaherty just finished his first full professional season and posted a 2.84 ERA with a 9.2 K/BB and only allowed two home runs in 95 innings.
• Weaver, who also just finished his first pro season, has collegiate polish after pitching at Florida State. He pitched to a 1.62 ERA and 4.63 K/BB in 2015 and finished the season in the Arizona Fall League this season, and even though he gave up three home runs there, he allowed only five homers in a combined 124 2/3 innings between High-A and the AFL.
• Williams, another 2014 draftee, showed some growing pains this season as his walk rate, strikeout rate and home run rates went the wrong direction, but he also saw his average against and batting average on balls in play go down. It’s too early to tell, but considering he pitches for the Cardinals, his chances are good.
• Woodford was drafted as a Competitive Balance Round A round pick in 2015, and he struck out 21 batters while only walking seven in 26 1/3 innings of work. Again, too early to say conclusively he’ll be a big leaguer, but he’s off to a good start.

Next: Athletics could see a glimpse of their future in 2016?

Pitching is the Cardinals’ bread and butter, but they could also see some young position players arrive within the same time frame as the pitchers. Outfielders Charlie Tilson, Magneuris Sierra, Nick Plummer and Harrison Bader, shortstop Edmundo Sosa, third baseman Patrick Wisdom and others are starting their ascents up the minor league ladder as well.