Baltimore Orioles look to power way to success in 2016
By Tim Haberin
After (finally) re-signing Chris Davis, the Baltimore Orioles and their fans let out a long-awaited sigh of relief.
With the exception of perhaps the Dodgers and Zack Greinke, no team needed to retain one of its own free agents more than the O’s did with Davis. It was a somewhat tumultuous process, as it often is when agent Scott Boras is involved, with Baltimore making and then rescinding a long-term offer near the beginning of December.
This weekend the Orioles and their slugging first baseman at last came to an agreement on a seven-year, $161 million contract, just north of last month’s reported offer.
With Davis back in the fold, Baltimore’s strategy for the 2016 campaign is rather clear: bludgeon opponents into submission. The 29-year-old Davis led all major leaguers last season with 47 home runs, and has collected 161 long balls over the course of five seasons with the O’s.
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The Orioles’ other prominent offseason move brought in another big bat, as they traded for Mark Trumbo from the Mariners. Trumbo has swatted 131 homers in the past five years, including 22 last season with the M’s and Diamondbacks. And that total represented a relative down year for the hard-hitting 1B/OF, as Trumbo belted a career-high 34 home runs two years earlier with the Angels.
Combined with the rest of the Orioles’ projected lineup, the club looks to have a strong recipe for run production in 2016. Third baseman Manny Machado (who is still only 23!) hit 35 homers last year, a whopping increase of 21 over his previous career best. He’s sure to continue developing into a perennial MVP candidate next season and beyond.
Center fielder Adam Jones has been a very consistent bat for the O’s over the past several years, posting an OPS+ over 100 in each of the last seven campaigns. He has added 146 home runs to his own account since 2011.
In a park like Camden Yards, these O’s are going to hit the ball hard. They might even give the similarly high-powered division rival Blue Jays a run for their money. However, offense wasn’t exactly an issue for Baltimore in 2015, when they finished 81-81 and in third place in the AL East.
The Orioles smacked 217 homers (seven players reached double digits) last year, good for third in MLB. They also finished ninth in runs scored with 713. The 2016 version of their lineup seems a solid bet to eclipse those totals as long as everyone stays healthy. But will that be enough to overcome the roster’s Achilles heel: the starting rotation?
Orioles starters were among the game’s worst last season. They sputtered to an overall 4.53 ERA, good for just 25th in the league. No Baltimore hurler won more than 12 games in 2015, and of all who made at least ten starts, only one ended the campaign with an ERA under 4.00.
To make matters worse, the starter who led the rotation with a 3.34 ERA, lefty Wei-Yin Chen, just left the O’s for the Marlins. So while an already potent Orioles lineup may be even stronger in the upcoming season, an already mediocre rotation could be even weaker.
Ken Rosenthal wrote about this dilemma in a recent column for FOX Sports. The O’s risk undermining their re-signing of Davis by neglecting their pitching staff.
But let’s face it: the Orioles, typically frugal under owner Peter Angelos, were only going to make one big free agent splash, and Chris Davis was their man. There was very little chance they were going to fit him and a frontline starting pitcher within the budget.
There are a smattering of names still out there who could help, from traditionally good pitchers coming off a bad year like Doug Fister, to reclamation projects like Cliff Lee. If the O’s want to really compete for a division crown in 2016, they would do well to roll the dice on one of these options.
Meanwhile, Baltimore will also simply need to hope several of the existing members of its rotation put forth strong showings this year. Ubaldo Jimenez and Miguel Gonzalez need to bounce back after lackluster performances. Younger arms like Chris Tillman and Kevin Gausman should improve as well.
The AL East is always a hotly-contested division and that doesn’t figure to change in the new year. While the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays may garner more attention at this point, the Orioles, powered by an even more imposing offense, look to remain strongly in the mix.