NL Central: Predicting 2016 Final Standings

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Last season, the National League Central was the best division in baseball and may have been the best division in baseball history with three teams winning 97 or more games. It could be more of the same this year, but some teams might shuffle around.

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Based on moves made this offseason, here is how the NL Central figures to shake out in 2016.

Next: 5. Cincinnati Reds

5. Cincinnati Reds

Projected Record: 64-98

Key Additions: OF Trayce Thompson, 3B Eric Jagielo

Key Subtractions: 3B Todd Frazier, RP Aroldis Chapman

Biggest Strength: Power hitting

Biggest Weakness: Starting pitching

Last season was a rough year in Cincinnati and it figures to get even worse as the team attempts to rebuild. That means 2016 is going to be a long one for the Reds, who have more questions than answers as spring training approaches.

While the team did a nice job trading away guys like Frazier and Chapman in order to get solid prospects, that’s not going to translate on the field right away. Both Thompson (brother of Warriors guard Klay Thompson) and Jagielo figure to play at the major league level at some point, but their potential impact is unknown.

The really troubling thing about the Reds is their lack of starting pitching. After all, last season they traded away their top two pitchers in Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake. That led to them starting a rookie in every game for over a month. Add to the mix that Homer Bailey is coming off of Tommy John surgery and the rotation looks like it could be a disaster.

Really, 2016 is going to be about the Reds finding out who is going to be on this team when they start seriously competing again. Especially in the rotation, they’re going to be able to find out who has it and who doesn’t.

That will help them down the road, but not in 2016 and that’s why they will finish a distant fifth in this division race.

Next: 4. Milwaukee Brewers

4. Milwaukee Brewers

Projected Record: 75-87

Key Additions: 1B Chris Carter, 3B Will Middlebrooks

Key Subtractions: 1B Adam Lind

Biggest Strength: Established veteran hitting

Biggest Weakness: Bullpen

The Brewers are caught in the middle between re-tooling and rebuilding and it doesn’t seem like they’ve decided which route they want to go yet. There’s no chance they’ll seriously compete in this division this season, but they won’t be a bottom feeder in the league either.

With established veterans like Ryan Braun and Jonathan Lucroy in the middle of the lineup, they’re not going to go through too many prolonged offensive droughts. However, there’s plenty of uncertainty in the rotation.

Like the Reds, the Brewers have plenty of young arms to try out in 2016, but unlike the Reds, they saw some promising things from those arms last season. Namely, Jimmy Nelson and Taylor Jungmann impressed.

In 30 starts, Nelson went 11-13 with a 4.11 ERA. Control issues plagued the righty, who had good enough stuff to stay deep into games consistently. Milwaukee will be looking for a big step in the right direction from him in his second full season in the big leagues.

Jungmann 9-8 with a 3.77 ERA in 21 starts a year ago and looked like someone the Brewers could build their rotation around at times last year. He’s still a little rough around the edges, but Jungmann definitely showed flashes.

The lineup isn’t half bad, either. They’re going to hit a ton of home runs with guys like Braun, Lucroy, Chris Carter and Khris Davis in the middle of the lineup, but they’re also going to strike out a ton with those guys playing such a big role.

They will live and die by the long ball and more often than not in 2016, they will die by it.

Next: 3. St. Louis Cardinals

3. St. Louis Cardinals

Projected Record: 88-74

Key Additions: SP Mike Leake

Key Subtractions: SP John Lackey, OF Jason Heyward

Biggest Strength: Veteran experience

Biggest Weakness: Lack of lineup depth

It’s been a while since this was the case, but the Cardinals are not the favorites to win the NL Central heading into 2016. In fact, they’re a distant third at this point. They simply didn’t do enough to improve from a season ago, while others in the division got even better.

Cardinals brass is always reluctant to spend big money and that really hurt them this offseason. With no clear solution at first base, the club did absolutely nothing to address the problem. For now, it appears Brandon Moss and Matt Adams will platoon at the position.

In the rotation, they should be relatively solid even though they lost Lackey to the rival Cubs this offseason. The arrival of Leake is welcome, because he consistently stays healthy. That’s not the case with most Cardinals starters. Case in point, Lance Lynn will miss the entire 2016 season after getting Tommy John surgery.

The outfield should be pretty good as well, but it took a step back from last year after losing Heyward, who was the team’s best all-around hitter in 2015. His gold-glove defense in the outfield will be missed as well.

Matt Holliday, Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk should be able to get the job done, but Piscotty and Grichuk haven’t experienced sustained success, so they are due to go through some slumps. How they handle those slumps might determine how the Cardinals finish this season.

No matter what, St. Louis always finds a way to be competitive late in the season. Despite having the third-best roster in the division, that will be no different in 2016. They will find ways to win and they will be in it late.

However, unlike recent years, the Pirates and Cubs have enough firepower to outlast them over the course of the season.

Next: 2. Pittsburgh Pirates

2. Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected Record: 93-69

Key Additions: SP Jon Niese, SP Ryan Vogelsong

Key Subtractions: 1B/3B Pedro Alvarez, 2B Neil Walker, RP Joakim Soria, SP A.J. Burnett

Biggest Strength: Lineup depth

Biggest Weakness: Rotation depth

Pittsburgh has been consistently good for a while now and there’s no reason that should change in 2016. They lost plenty of pieces this offseason, but replaced most of them and have the depth to make up the difference on the rest.

In the lineup, they lost some big bats, though. Alvarez chose free agency, Walker was traded and veteran third baseman Aramis Ramirez retired. Those departures means it’s time for Jung-Ho Kang to pick up where he left off last year and Starling Marte to finally have a breakout year.

Last year, the rotation was a strength of the club as they had great arms at the top and very good ones even at the bottom. That doesn’t look to be the case at this point. J.A. Happ, who enjoyed a resurgence, got a three-year, $36 million deal with the Blue Jays. Veteran A.J. Burnett retired and leaves a big void in the rotation.

As it stands right now, this could be the Pirates’ starting rotation on Opening Day:

RHP Gerrit Cole
LHP Francisco Liriano
LHP Jon Niese
LHP Jeff Locke
RHP Ryan Vogelsong

Having Cole and Liriano at the top is big, and adding Niese to the mix was a nice move for the Pirates, but they’re now lacking pitching depth. There’s no telling how effective Locke (because of inexperience) or Vogelsong (aging and inconsistent) will be and that is cause for concern in Pittsburgh.

Without consistently strong starts from the starting rotation, the Pirates’ excellent lineup isn’t going to matter. Still, they have enough pieces in place to contend for the division, but they may be relegated to the wild card game for a fourth year in a row.

Next: 1. Chicago Cubs

1. Chicago Cubs

Projected Record: 101-61

Key Additions: OF Jason Heyward, 2B Ben Zobrist, SP John Lackey

Key Subtractions: OF Dexter Fowler, SS Starlin Castro

Biggest Strength: Lineup balance

Biggest Weakness: Back-end starting pitching

This may sound strange to Cubs fans, but they are the odds-on favorite to win the World Series this season, and for good reason. After several years of rebuilding, this team is absolutely stacked and primed for a deep run in October.

Virtually the same roster that won 97 games a year ago actually managed to get better this winter. They stole away two of the best players from the rival Cardinals in Heyward and Lackey and also got a versatile veteran in Zobrist.

Putting Heyward and Zobrist into the top of the lineup will make the offense even more deadly than it was a season ago. Just to give you an idea of how stacked this offense is, here is what the lineup could look like on any given day:

2B Ben Zobrist
OF Jason Heyward
3B Kris Bryant
1B Anthony Rizzo
OF Kyle Schwarber
OF Jorge Soler
C Miguel Montero
Starting Pitcher
SS Addison Russell

Oh, and by the way, talented infielder Javier Baez is a bench player for this team. Opposing pitchers are going to dread facing that deep lineup, because it seemingly never ends. There’s no stretch of the lineup that is particularly weak, so this team figures to score in bunches.

A few things will make the Cubs slightly better than they were in the regular season last year, in 2016. Even though Jake Arrieta will not be able to duplicate his performance from a year ago, Jon Lester figures to have a better year, so those two may offset slightly.

Chicago also had nearly perfect health last year, which normally doesn’t happen two years in a row. Luckily for the Cubs, they’ve built up such great organizational depth that a few injuries here and there won’t bury the team.

As it stands right now, this team is the perfect mix of young and old, energetic and experienced. Most of all, though, this team is ready to win. The city and its fans have waited 107 years for another World Series title on the North Side of Chicago.

The wait may finally end in 2016 and that starts with winning the NL Central division crown.

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