2016 AL Cy Young Early Front Runners

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Last season saw a breakout star in Houston Astros SP Dallas Keuchel take home the award for the best pitcher in the American League. Will 2016 see an established pitcher come out of nowhere to take home the Cy Young? Or will there be another pitcher that will be able to surprise next season? Let’s take a look at pitchers that are the early frontrunners to take home the prestigious award.

Next: 5. Felix Hernandez - Seattle Mariners

5. Felix Hernandez – Seattle Mariners

“King Felix” has been one of the best pitchers in the league since he made is debut with Seattle in 2005. Even as a rookie he posted a 2.67 ERA in 12 starts. Known for his devastating swing-and-miss changeup, Hernandez has took home the award once before in 2010, when he pitched to a 2.27 ERA in 34 starts, even though he went 13-12 that season.

King Felix has also finished in the top four in the voting on four separate occasions, proving that he is one of the elite pitchers that the MLB has to offer.

As of this season, you pretty much know what you’re going to get with the 11-year veteran. Felix Hernandez has a career ERA of 3.11 and has been named to the all-star team in six of the past seven seasons. Not only does he get hitters out, Felix usually blows them away.

In each of the past five seasons, he has posted a strikeout rate of 8.5 batters per every nine innings. It is hard to believe that Hernandez has been as dominant for as long as he has given that he will be only 29 years old when the 2016 season begins.

In 2015, while Hernandez was not as effective as he has been over the course of his career, he still had a very solid season. He posted a 3.53 ERA and was still able to maintain his strong strikeout numbers, finishing the year with the 20th most K’s in the entire league.

Another aspect of Felix’s game that cannot go unnoticed is his durability. He has made at least 30 starts a season every year since has was a rookie. Being able to go out and pitch on every fifth day consistently is something that should not be underestimated when deciding who the favorites are for the Cy Young.

Next season should see this veteran right-hander return to the dominant form that he has shown over his career in the major leagues. Even after a somewhat disappointing season for Hernandez in 2015, one should be cautious in betting against the production and consistency Hernandez has displayed over the years.

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Next: 4. David Price - Boston Red Sox

4. David Price – Boston Red Sox

Sticking with the theme of proven dominant starting pitchers, David Price has been one of the top pitchers in the AL for many years now. Price broke into MLB with Tampa Bay in 2008 and pitched in the postseason that year. Since then, the 30 year-old left hander has continued to produce at a high level.

Price was the first pick in the 2007 MLB draft, and immediately jumped to becoming the top prospect in all of the minor leagues. Price was hyped by many baseball pundits because of his dominant pitching arsenal that features a mid-to-upper-90’s fastball and a drop-off -the-table changeup. This pitching arsenal, along with his ability to control the strike zone has made him one of the most difficult pitchers to face in the league.

Even with Price being so good during the past couple seasons, he was still moved at the trade deadline the past two seasons. This past year, Price was able to lead the Blue Jays to their first playoff appearance since 1993.

With Toronto, he posted a 2.30 ERA and struck out more than 10 hitters per nine innings. Not many pitchers have the pure stuff that Price has, and that was on full display in his stint with the 2015 AL East champs.

In addition to dominating for as long as he has, Price has been one of the most durable pitchers in the league. He has been able to start 30 games in five of the past six seasons. This should give the Red Sox, who signed the lefty to a 7-year, $217 million deal this offseason, hope that they’ll be able to rely heavily on him in 2016 and beyond.

Price’s stuff has not really declined over the past couple seasons and he should be able to continue his dominance with Boston in 2016. He has plenty of experience pitching in the AL East and in Fenway Park. In 11 career starts there, he is 6-1 with a 1.85 ERA.

Even though Price won’t be pitching in a contract year this season, he should still be able to continue his success in 2016. All of this makes Price a good bet to be a top contender for the AL Cy Young award in 2016.

Next: 3. Carlos Carrasco - Cleveland Indians

3. Carlos Carrasco – Cleveland Indians

Now we get to the part of the list that may raise some eyebrows. Even though it shouldn’t be a surprise if you’ve been paying attention to the American League the past couple of seasons, Indians SP Carlos Carrasco has been one of the most successful starters in the American League for the past two years.

Even with his success, Carrasco is not even the most recognizable starting pitcher on his team. That distinction belongs to Corey Kluber, who rode his breakout season in 2014 to an AL Cy Young award. Carrasco is capable of doing what Kluber did a couple of years ago.

Carrasco has all the makings of being an upper-tier starting pitcher in the MLB. He is able to throw his fastball in the mid-90’s and has the strikeout numbers over the past couple seasons that show he should be considered a high quality starting option for next season.

The 28-year-old right hander posted an impressive strikeout rate of 9.4 hitters per nine innings in 2014, and even improved that number to 10.6 last season. He accumulated 216 strikeouts in 2015, which ranked 9th in the entire league.

In addition to the dominant pitching arsenal that Carrasco possesses, the Venezuelan has the production to suggest that he should be a serious contender for the Cy Young in 2016. Since gaining a spot in the Indians rotation in 2014, Carrasco has pitched to a 2.83 ERA, while only walking around two hitters pert start.

Last year, he didn’t perform as well in 2014, but he still posted a 3.63 ERA and made 30 starts. Carrasco’s combination of impressive stuff, control of his pitches and his recent success make him a strong bet to finish as one of the better pitchers in the American League.

He may not have the name recognition as the two previous starters on the list, but his recent results and ability should show the entire league that the Indians have two aces on their staff in 2016.

Next: 2. Chris Sale - Chicago White Sox

2. Chris Sale – Chicago White Sox

What Chris Sale has been able to do in such a short time in this league has been nothing short of spectacular. Ever since he entered the major leagues in 2010, he has done nothing but succeed and prove many people wrong.

Even though he was drafted 13th overall in the 2010 MLB draft, Sale still had many doubters when he came into the league due to his thin frame and fear that he would be injury prone because of his unconventional delivery.

Proving those doubters wrong, the 26-year-old lefty has started 26 or more games since 2012, and has a career ERA of 2.91, in addition to finishing in the top five in voting for the past three AL Cy Young awards.

Even with his skinny frame, Sale throws his fastball in the mid-90’s and compliments that with a sweeping slider that he uses to get hitters out as well. Increasingly, he has been using his changeup to give hitters something else to deal with when they step in the batters box.

According to Fangraphs, Sale went from throwing his changeup 19.8 percent of the time in 2013, to 28.6 and 27.3 percent in 2014 and 2015 respectively. This has not caused Sale’s stats to dip; he actually posted his season-best ERA in 2014 at 2.17, and struck to a career high 274 hitters in 2015, which ranked third in the major leagues.

There is some concern with Sale as he posted a 3.41 ERA this past season, which was the worst of his career. However, that shouldn’t be a concern for the White Sox because his walk numbers actually improved in 2015, while only giving up 23 home runs as well.

Sale has never won the Cy Young before, but he has been a serious contender the past couple of seasons, and should be considered one of the frontrunners in 2016 as well. He remains in the prime of his career, being that it is only his six season in the league, and that he has not suffered any serious injuries as of right now.

There is still some concern over how the 26 year-old will hold up as he starts to rack up the innings, but that shouldn’t affect him, at least this season. Sale has proven to be one of the better, and most feared pitchers in the league because of his unique delivery and skill set, which is something that shouldn’t change as we begin looking at what to expect in the MLB for next season.

Next: 1. Chris Archer - Tampa Bay Rays

1. Chris Archer – Tampa Bay Rays

This 27-year-old had a 2015 season that put him on the map as one of the best pitchers in the entire major leagues. Chris Archer came up as a prospect who had the stuff to be a top-of-the-rotation starter, but there were some concerns about the mental side of his game, which was on full display when he challenged David Ortiz after the Red Sox’s first baseman smacked a three-run bomb off the righty in April of last season.

Fortunately, Archer was able to shake it off and become one of the most dominant pitchers in the league as he finished the season with a 3.23 ERA, while striking out 252 hitters in the process, which ranked 4th in the entire league.

The right-hander became a full-time starter for Tampa Bay in 2013, when he pitched to a 3.22 ERA in his first season, showing potential that he could become one of the top arms in the game. Archer hasn’t struggled much in the league thus far as you can see by his 3.33 career ERA.

Archer was not a hyped prospect coming into the draft as the Cleveland Indians took him in the 5th round of the 2006 MLB draft. Archer was traded to the Chicago Cubs in 2008 in a deal that sent infielder Mark DeRosa to the Indians.

As he started to make a name for himself in the Chicago farm system, Archer became a key piece in a trade that sent starter Matt Garza to the Cubs in 2011. Since that deal, he has done nothing to make the Rays regret acquiring him as he made his first all-star team in 2015.

Archer does not have the stats or pedigree that some of these other pitchers on the list have, but he does have the potential to surpass all of them and become arguably the best starting pitcher in the American League in 2016.

Archer’s go-to pitch, as the case with most aces, is his mid-to-high 90’s fastball. According to Fangraphs, Archer threw his fastball close to 55 percent of the time in 2015. The right-hander is mostly a two-pitch pitcher, mixing in a slider that he threw around 40 percent of the time last season. This is a pretty large increase from 2015, when he only threw his slider 29 percent of the time.

Using mostly two pitches is normally not a recipe to be a top starter in major leagues, but when the two pitches are as dominant as his, it’s easy to see why Archer has been so successful during his first three seasons in the league.

The only real concern with Archer is that he walks around three hitters per nine innings, and even though this is an improvement from 2014, it is really the only thing that is holding him back from making the jump into being an elite starting pitcher.

Having experienced three seasons of being a starting pitcher in the show, Archer may be ready to truly enter the discussion as one of the top starters in the AL. His nasty pitching arsenal along with his bulldog mentality makes Chris Archer the early frontrunner to win the AL Cy Young award in 2016.

Who do you think is the early favorite for the 2016 AL Cy Young award? Post your thoughts in the comments below.

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