Predicting the Final AL East Standings in 2016
In a year of parity across Major League Baseball, the American League East was perhaps the most complicated of all – as seemingly any team could have made a run at the division crown. While only the Red Sox (78-84) and Tampa Bay Rays (80-82) finished under .500, each team remained competitive for at least a portion of the season.
This season figures to be more of the same in the AL East. With the retooled Red Sox ready to compete with the likes of an intimidating New York Yankees bullpen and a potent Toronto Blue Jays lineup, there’s no clear front-runner to win the division. The Baltimore Orioles are expected to take a step backward after losing rotation staple Wei-Yin Chen and failing to sign a viable third outfielder, while the Rays look to be mediocre on offense once again.
Related Story: 2016 NL Central Predictions
While moves can still be made this offseason, here’s our predictions for how things will shake out in the AL East in 2016.
Next: 5. Baltimore Orioles
5. Baltimore Orioles
Projected Record: 79-83
Key Additions: 1B/OF Mark Trumbo, OF Hyun-soo Kim
Key Subtractions: OF Gerardo Parra
Biggest Strength: Middle of the order power
Biggest Weakness: Rotation depth
After whiffing on many of the big-name free agents this offseason, the Orioles nearly missed out on retaining slugger Chris Davis, before offering him a massive 7-year, $161 million dollar deal, which he signed. Bringing back Davis allowed the organization to have a collective sigh of relief. The team likely would have taken a huge step back without his bat in the lineup.
The only other notable offseason moves came when coveted reliever Darren O’Day re-upped for four years and inconsistent slugger Mark Trumbo was acquired as insurance in the event that Davis signed elsewhere. O’Day will likely anchor the relieving corps once again before closer Zack Britton looks to shut things down in the ninth, as he did so often in 2015 (1.91 ERA, 36 saves). The rest of the bullpen lacks star power, but should perform effectively.
As it stands now, the Orioles lineup is their main strength – the entire team will depend upon the production of rising superstar Manny Machado and Davis. Trumbo can add some pop as the DH and an occasional outfielder, but the team will likely need to deal for another option to complement star center fielder Adam Jones.
Korean outfielder Hyun-soo Kim was signed as a possible starter, but it remains to be seen how his bat will translate to the majors. One positive to note, though, is that he walked 38 more times than he struck out, while also hitting 28 homers in the KBO.
The rest of the lineup should be solid once again, as Jonathan Schoop will look to build off a solid season in which he hit .279 with 15 homers and J.J. Hardy could rebound from a down year.
Along with their outfield woes, the Orioles rotation is far from a sure thing. Led by Chris Tillman, who is coming off a surprisingly bad season which saw his ERA balloon from 3.34 in 2014 to 4.99, the rotation lacks proven options. Tillman’s control was his main issue, as his BB/9 rose to 3.33, a career-worst. After Tillman, there’s a whole lot of questions marks.
Ubaldo Jimenez will likely never be the pitcher he was in Colorado, but he can eat up innings along with Miguel Gonzalez. Unless Kevin Gausman takes a big leap forward in his third major league season, the Orioles may have some trouble getting outs. Prospects Dylan Bundy and Hunter Harvey could potentially provide support, but it’s a long shot that either will break camp with the team.
With a weak rotation and lack of depth in the outfield, the Orioles look doomed for their first sub-.500 season since 2011.
Next: 4. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Tampa Bay Rays
Projected Record: 81-81
Key Additions: SS Brad Miller, 1B Logan Morrison, C Hank Conger
Key Subtractions: SS Asdrubal Cabrera, DH John Jaso, RHP Nate Karns
Biggest Strength: Pitching depth
Biggest Weakness: Power hitting
The Rays approached the 2015-16 offseason just as they have for the past several years – find players who can succeed in the right system, at the right price. And that’s exactly what the team did after acquiring former top prospect Brad Miller and first baseman/outfielder Logan Morrison from the Seattle Mariners. While neither player with likely become stars with the Rays, they can provide solid production in a lineup nearly devoid of it.
After only averaging 3.98 runs per game last season, the Rays offense became the team’s biggest concern heading into the offseason. Replacing Cabrera with Miller and adding Morrison to DH will add some much-needed pop – but their potential as everyday contributors could be limited. The team will depend on improvements from Steven Souza Jr. and his .225/.319/.399 slash line in his second season as a Ray, while Desmond Jennings and Kevin Kiermaier should once again be quietly productive in the outfield.
A lot of the Rays’ success will hinge on whether or not star third baseman Evan Longoria can return to his days as a potent hitter capable of carrying a lineup, but with a declining walk rate, that possibility may be bleak. However, Longo had his best season since 2012 in 2015 by posting a .270/.328/.425 slash line to go along with 21 home runs and a 4.2 WAR. He also provided solid defense at the hot corner with a 12.3 UZR/150.
As for the rotation, most of the Rays success this season should come from their abundance of quality starters. With a true ace in Chris Archer and the quietly effective Jake Odorizzi and Drew Smyly, the team could have a very productive starting staff. With Alex Cobb expected to return from Tommy John surgery by midseason and Matt Moore fully healthy, the potential for an elite rotation is there.
The bullpen is loaded with depth, and will once again rely upon solid seasons from Jake McGee and closer Brad Boxberger. At some point, the team may trade to add another high-profile name.
If the Rays offense can turn things around in 2016, they’ll be among many sleeper teams capable of winning their divisions.
Next: 3. New York Yankees
3. New York Yankees
Projected Record: 85-77
Key Additions: 2B/SS Starlin Castro, LHP Aroldis Chapman
Key Subtractions: 2B/SS Brendan Ryan
Biggest Strength: Bullpen
Biggest Weakness: Age
On paper, the New York Yankees boast one of the most talented rosters in the majors. But with a roster composed of seven starters over the age of 31, the team may run into issues with staying healthy over the course of an entire season. But with bench pieces like Dustin Ackley, Greg Bird and Aaron Hicks, the Yankees may have enough depth to maintain a very capable offense.
Led by veterans Mark Teixeria, Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury, the team has a solid core stretching from the infield to all three outfield positions. Carlos Beltran (.276, 19 HR) and Alex Rodriguez (.250, 33 HR) may not be able to replicate their productive 2015 seasons, but 300 at-bats from both could be enough to support the younger pieces on the roster.
The lineup’s newest star, Starlin Castro, could be a vital piece to a run toward a division crown. After several productive seasons in Chicago, Castro struggled in 2013 and 2015, but still managed to hit .265 with 11 home runs last season, which could be in large part to a .298 BABIP. While those numbers are above average for shortstops, one major concern surrounding Castro’s future is his ability to get on base.
Last season, his OBP dipped below .300 for the second time in the past three seasons, which diminishes his impact at the plate. Now in a solidified role with the Yankees after bouncing between second base and shortstop with the Cubs, Castro can thrive with the change of scenery.
New York’s rotation will be contingent on Masahiro Tanaka’s ability to stay healthy, but Michael Pineda and Nathan Eovaldi represent two solid middle-of-the-rotation arms to back him up. A bounce-back season from the disgruntled C.C. Sabathia would help add depth, but that situation remains a concern.
Second-year stud Luis Severino will likely take huge steps forward in his first full season after posting a 2.89 ERA in 11 starts last season, and could emerge as a viable No. 2 starter behind Tanaka. A 4.37 FIP (fielding independent pitching) shows that some luck was involved with his impressive rookie run, though.
The most fascinating aspect of the 2016 Yankees is the revamped bullpen, led by newly added flamethrower Aroldis Chapman. He joins Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances in the back end. All three have the capability of being star closers in the league, and the three will almost certainly make up the most dominant bullpen in baseball in 2016.
The Yankees boast a very talented roster, but age and question marks at the back of their rotation may limit the team against the likes of the Blue Jays and Red Sox.
Next: 2. Toronto Blue Jays
2. Toronto Blue Jays
Projected Record: 89-73
Key Additions: RHP Drew Storen, RHP Jesse Chavez, LHP J.A. Happ
Key Subtractions: LHP David Price, OF Ben Revere, LHP Mark Buehrle
Biggest Strength: Lineup
Biggest Weakness: Lack of an established ace
After losing out on David Price to the division-rival Red Sox, the Blue Jays may suffer the same fate as their foes did in 2015. Now without an established ace, the Blue Jays are relying on a number of middle-of-the-rotation starters and young pitchers with sky-high potential. As the Red Sox saw in 2015, the Blue Jays potent lineup may fail to carry the rotation in the dog days of the season.
Still with an elite lineup led by reigning AL MVP Josh Donaldson, the always dangerous Troy Tulowitzki, and the slugging duo of Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, the Blue Jays have no shortage of run producers on their roster. Losing Ben Revere is the only loss that might have an impact, but that should be more defensive, if anything.
Prospect Dalton Pompey could take the starting job in left field, despite only hitting .223 in 103 plate appearances in 2015 – and has the potential to become a solid offensive contributor with the ability to hit for contact and speed.
Without David Price in the rotation, Marcus Stroman will be expected to take on the role of staff ace – similar to Yordano Ventura with the Royals last season. But if Ventura is any indication, Stroman’s transition may not be as smooth as expected.
With a low walk rate (1.93 in 2014) and decent strikeout numbers, Stroman can take the reigns as the best pitcher on the Blue Jays staff, though. Behind him, J.A. Happ, R.A. Dickey and Jesse Chavez will provide plenty of veteran experience with the ability to eat up a decent number of innings throughout the season.
A trade for an ace may be necessary, though, if Stroman does struggle to establish himself as a dominant force. After the starters are done, though, the bullpen has the potential to be among the best in the game. With the newly acquired Drew Storen at closer and Brett Cecil and Robert Osuna manning down the seventh and eighth innings, the team should have no issues closing out games.
After leading the league with 891 runs scored last season, it’s very easy to see the Jays once again riding their potent offense to a postseason berth in 2016.
Next: 1. Boston Red Sox
1. Boston Red Sox
Projected Record: 92-70
Key Additions: LHP David Price, RHP Craig Kimbrel, RHP Carson Smith, OF Chris Young
Key Subtractions: LHP Wade Miley, OF Manuel Margot (prospect)
Biggest Strength: Lineup
Biggest Weakness: Questions surrounding Rusney Castillo
With the addition of new president of baseball operations, Dave Dombrowski, the Red Sox shifted their long-term philosophy from focusing on developing young talent to adding established stars to help make those youngsters’ transitions smoother.
After depending on a starting rotation without a clear ace, the Red Sox’s pitching experiment failed and the team faltered as a result. A top-five offense last season was the only clear positive, and after adding David Price this offseason, the team looks poised for a major bounce-back season.
The starting rotation, now composed of Price, Rick Porcello, Clay Buchholz, young stud Eduardo Rodriguez, and any combination of Joe Kelly, Henry Owens, or Brian Johnson, the team has a much clearer path to success this season.
Price is a proven star capable of dominating the oft-feared offenses of the AL East, while Porcello and Buchholz can provide very solid seasons without the pressure of acting as staff ace. Eduardo Rodriguez looks ready to become a legitimate star in the league after posting an impressive 3.85 ERA in his rookie season.
A revamped bullpen consisting of Craig Kimbrel, underrated addition Carson Smith, and veterans Koji Uehara and Junichi Tazawa, should give the Sox one of the better bullpens in the American League. Kimbrel, especially, will give the team a young, dominant closer it has lacked since losing Jonathan Papelbon.
The most exciting part about the team, though, is its young, potent offense. After averaging 4.62 runs per game last season and seeing the emergence of Mookie Betts (.291, 18 HR, 21 SB) and Xander Bogaerts (.320/.355/.421) as anchors of the lineup, the team has a solid group from 1-9.
Catcher Blake Swihart should take more strides as an offensive threat in his second full season while Christian Vazquez backs him up as a defensive presence. In his final season, David Ortiz should enjoy another great year to cap off his storied career.
Two main questions marks surround the lineup, however.
Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez struggled mightily after signing massive contracts, but with expectations lowered this season and Ramirez shifting to first base, the two should enjoy bounce-back years.
The Red Sox’ mystery man over the past two seasons, Rusney Castillo, still doesn’t have a clear future with the team – and this season will be pivotal in their decision surrounding his future as a starter or bench piece.
Defensive stud Jackie Bradley Jr. enjoyed a superb month of August last season, which has allowed him to secure the starting center field job – but if he struggles on offense, the newly added Chris Young will provide a solid bench presence.
The Red Sox don’t have a true weakness, and that bodes well for their potential to go worst-to-first in 2016. If everything falls into place with the rotation, Sandoval and Ramirez, and Castillo – the Red Sox will be as formidable as any other team this season.
The AL East doesn’t exactly have a clear dominant team, but that will only provide more excitement as the season draws closer. Let us know your predictions in the comments.