Predicting the Final AL East Standings in 2016
By Nick Fustor
4. Tampa Bay Rays
Projected Record: 81-81
Key Additions: SS Brad Miller, 1B Logan Morrison, C Hank Conger
Key Subtractions: SS Asdrubal Cabrera, DH John Jaso, RHP Nate Karns
Biggest Strength: Pitching depth
Biggest Weakness: Power hitting
The Rays approached the 2015-16 offseason just as they have for the past several years – find players who can succeed in the right system, at the right price. And that’s exactly what the team did after acquiring former top prospect Brad Miller and first baseman/outfielder Logan Morrison from the Seattle Mariners. While neither player with likely become stars with the Rays, they can provide solid production in a lineup nearly devoid of it.
After only averaging 3.98 runs per game last season, the Rays offense became the team’s biggest concern heading into the offseason. Replacing Cabrera with Miller and adding Morrison to DH will add some much-needed pop – but their potential as everyday contributors could be limited. The team will depend on improvements from Steven Souza Jr. and his .225/.319/.399 slash line in his second season as a Ray, while Desmond Jennings and Kevin Kiermaier should once again be quietly productive in the outfield.
A lot of the Rays’ success will hinge on whether or not star third baseman Evan Longoria can return to his days as a potent hitter capable of carrying a lineup, but with a declining walk rate, that possibility may be bleak. However, Longo had his best season since 2012 in 2015 by posting a .270/.328/.425 slash line to go along with 21 home runs and a 4.2 WAR. He also provided solid defense at the hot corner with a 12.3 UZR/150.
As for the rotation, most of the Rays success this season should come from their abundance of quality starters. With a true ace in Chris Archer and the quietly effective Jake Odorizzi and Drew Smyly, the team could have a very productive starting staff. With Alex Cobb expected to return from Tommy John surgery by midseason and Matt Moore fully healthy, the potential for an elite rotation is there.
The bullpen is loaded with depth, and will once again rely upon solid seasons from Jake McGee and closer Brad Boxberger. At some point, the team may trade to add another high-profile name.
If the Rays offense can turn things around in 2016, they’ll be among many sleeper teams capable of winning their divisions.
Next: 3. New York Yankees