Phillies, Braves have shortest rebuilds ahead of them
The Phillies and Braves are setting themselves up for more efficient rebuilds than teams such as the Reds and Brewers.
If you’ve been following baseball this offseason, you’ve probably seen some discussion about the number of teams going into full rebuild mode, especially in the National League. While recent history argues that a tear-it-down-and-rebuild approach–what some would call tanking–is an effective method to build winning teams, the practice still has a tawdry tone, especially when such a concentrated group of teams are participating.
The teams generally accused of waving the white flag of surrender in 2016 are the Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, Cincinnati Reds, Milwaukee Brewers and Colorado Rockies—although there is this interesting argument that the first four teams aren’t tanking. Each franchise has concocted its own variation of the rebuild, but all follow the same general principles; trade away aging, expensive veterans for prospects; let other aging players walk into free agency; lose lots of games in order to draft high; and then either sign free agents or use prospects to trade for big-league talent to accelerate the process.
Recent rebuilds such as the Chicago Cubs (’11-‘14), Astros (‘09-‘14), Pittsburgh Pirates (‘07-‘12), Kansas City Royals (‘06-‘13) and Washington Nationals (’07-’11) show that once the strategy is implemented, it takes a long time before it pays off. Front offices must be patient and smart. Just ask Royals General Manager Dayton Moore.
The dates for the beginnings of those rebuilds are negotiable, but those seasons link well with either front office changes (Pirates, Cubs, Royals) or a purging of useless aging talent (Astros, Nationals). For example, 2007 is a good place to start with the Nationals because in 2006, they held on to Alfonso Soriano for an entire season when they could’ve traded him for prospects. When he signed with the Cubs that offseason, the Nats got a compensation pick that turned into Jordan Zimmermann.
The Braves, Phillies and Brewers went into rebuild mode before or during the 2015 season, while the Reds waited until this offseason to begin their remodel. So which team is the closest to being able to compete again?
A look at the minor league systems of each franchise suggests it’s the Phillies, and they’re a popular choice.With the trades of pitchers Cole Hamels and Ken Giles, the Phillies have an incredible amount of near-ready talent: shortstop J.P. Crawford, pitchers Mark Appel and Jake Thompson, catcher Jorge Alfaro, infielder Darnell Sweeney and outfielder Roman Quinn all might make big league appearances in 2016.
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But they’re just the second wave of the youth movement. The Phillies were third in the majors in the number of innings thrown by rookie starters (276 2/3) and outfielder Odubel Herrera and third baseman Maikel Franco had productive rookie seasons. If they sign one or two big free agents—and there was talk that the Phillies should’ve spent big this offseason—they could be back as soon as 2017 or 2018.
The Braves are the next closest. They’ve been the most transparent about their intentions to wait to win until they get into their new ballpark, and there’s enough talent to suggest the park will host a winner soon: The Braves were second in the majors in innings thrown by rookie starters (358); newly-acquired Dansby Swanson won’t be in the minors long—think Nationals prospect Trea Turner; and Aaron Blair should pitch in the majors in 2016.
The Reds are next, although they may have set themselves back a few years by not getting enough for trading away Todd Frazier and Aroldis Chapman. The Reds led the majors with 575 innings pitched by rookie starters and Jose Peraza, Jesse Winker and Robert Stephenson won’t be in the minors much longer, but the rest of the farmhands are at least two years away. The albatross contract the Reds gave to first baseman Joey Votto certainly doesn’t help.
The Brewers have the furthest to go. Shortstop Orlando Arcia, the franchise’s top prospect, is the closest to the majors, but the level of potential impact tapers off quickly from there. Trading for outfielder Domingo Santana and Brett Phillips helps, but the Brew Crew has a long way to go.
Next: Rockies, Angels prospects to watch
Finally, a note on why the Rockies were left out: it seems they’re always in rebuild mode, and it’s taking them a long time to fully commit to a complete dismantle, which would officially start the clock.