Predicting the Final AL Central Standings in 2016
By Nick Fustor
5. Chicago White Sox
Projected Record: 75-87
Key Additions: 3B Todd Frazier, 2B/3B Brett Lawrie, C Alex Avila
Key Subtractions: RHP Jeff Samardzija, 2B Micah Johnson, SS Alexei Ramirez, OF Trayce Thompson, C Tyler Flowers
Biggest Strength: Starting pitching
Biggest Weakness: Lineup holes
Despite making a splash by adding coveted power-hitting third baseman Todd Frazier in a three-team trade this offseason, the Chicago White Sox remain largely unchanged from a team that struggled to win 76 games last season. With Jeff Samardzija in San Francisco, the team will rely on the 26-year-old Erik Johnson to take over the No. 5 starter spot.
Meanwhile, with shortstop Alexei Ramirez and catcher Tyler Flowers out of Chicago, the team will depend on the unproven Tyler Saladino and former All-Star Alex Avila to make up for some production.
On paper, the White Sox’ lineup looks solid. With Frazier in town, some of the pressure will be taken off star first baseman Jose Abreu to be the team’s main run producer – and it’s likely the duo will be among the league’s most feared power tandems. In 2015, the two combined for 65 home runs and 190 RBI (Frazier: 35 and 89, Abreu: 30 and 101). Along with those two, newcomer Brett Lawrie could finally emerge as a star in his new full-time role as a second baseman.
During his days in Toronto and Oakland, Lawrie was lauded as the next great combination of contact, power and speed – but failed to live up to expectations with a career slash line of .263/.316/.420 with 59 home runs.
At only 26, Lawrie is just entering his prime – and if healthy, can provide some stability to the bottom half of Chicago’s lineup. One cause for concern, though, is his struggles while playing second base. Last season with Oakland, in 361 innings as a second baseman, Lawrie posted a -15.8 UZR/150. A full spring training to prepare could solve those defensive woes, though.
The White Sox boast a solid outfield duo of Adam Eaton and Melky Cabrera, but will need right fielder Avisail Garcia to make major improvements on defense (-6.9 UZR/150) to warrant a starting spot.
Losing Alexei Ramirez frees up the possibility of top prospect Tim Anderson taking over in the future, but as it stands now, the light-hitting Tyler Saladino will be the everyday shortstop. The team will also depend on a bounce-back season from Alex Avila behind the plate, but it’s difficult to see that happening after he hit .191 in 2015.
As for the pitching, the rotation looks to be the team’s strength as Chris Sale is poised for an All-Star season following his snub in 2015. Jose Quintana proved to be a solid number two last season after posting a 3.36 ERA, while Carlos Rodon is expected to make a huge step forward after a solid rookie season (3.75 ERA, 3.87 FIP). John Danks is likely to post another unspectacular season, but he can be depended upon to eat up innings.
The bullpen will once again be led by closer David Robertson, but the rest of the group lacks star power. If everything falls into place for the White Sox, they could make a run toward the top of the division. But in all likelihood, the weak spots in the lineup will prove too difficult to overcome.
Next: 4. Minnesota Twins