MLB Spring Training: New York Yankees Full Preview

The New York Yankees were a tough team to read heading into last year, and despite a disappointing finish in the Wild Card game, they by most accounts exceeded expectations. As 2016 Spring Training nears, they look like an enigma once again.

Did overachievements from a couple players help propel them into playoff contention in 2015, or did a collection of lackluster performances in the second half hold them back? The Bombers avoided any big offseason free agent splashes, choosing instead to make a few key trades in an effort to improve their roster.

What will it all add up to in the new season? Spring Training should provide some clues.

Key Offseason Additions: Aroldis Chapman, Starlin Castro, Aaron Hicks

Key Offseason Subtractions: Chris Young, John Ryan Murphy, Adam Warren

The Rotation:

The Yankees go into the spring with a handful of question marks in their rotation. Most would peg Masahiro Tanaka as the team’s number-one starter, but he has experienced his share of health issues during his first two seasons in MLB. He missed significant time in 2014 with a partial UCL tear, electing to forgo reconstructive surgery. The elbow did not appear to bother him last season, but a forearm strain forced him to skip several starts.

Michael Pineda took the mound 27 times in 2015, a welcome development after a few injury-plagued years. The big right-hander was very much erratic when he did pitch, however, looking absolutely dominant in some outings (he struck out 16 Orioles on May 10) and thoroughly ineffective in others. He finished the campaign with a mediocre 4.37 ERA, though his 3.34 FIP tells a decidedly better tale. Still just 27 years old, the Yanks will hope Pineda can stay healthy and be far more consistent in the new season.

Nathan Eovaldi was a major surprise last year, leading the club with a 14-3 record. Following a nightmare start in Miami against his former team on June 16 in which Eovaldi was shelled for eight runs in only two-thirds of an inning, the hard-throwing righty found his form and went on an impressive run, going 11-3 with a 3.43 ERA over 14 starts for the remainder of the year. Unfortunately, his regular season was cut short in early September due to elbow inflammation, but he would reportedly have been available to pitch in the ALDS had the Yankees advanced beyond the Wild Card Game. Turning 26 later this month, Eovaldi is another relatively young arm the team hopes will continue to improve.

More from Call to the Pen

Undoubtedly the most exciting factor in the Yankees rotation this year will be the further development of young phenom Luis Severino. The top prospect made his debut last August and largely lived up to the hype, posting a 2.89 ERA (137 ERA+) in 11 outings (62.1 innings). Severino struggled a bit with control at times (3.2 BB/9) but demonstrated solid strikeout ability (8.1 K/9) and never seemed overwhelmed by the big stage. Severino will enter the season at 22 years old, and while some growing pains should be expected, it’s hard not get excited about the young hurler’s potential this season.

CC Sabathia faced hurdles on and off the field in 2015, but he will most likely start the new season with a spot in the Yankees rotation. He hasn’t looked anything like his typical ace-like self over the last three years (4.81 ERA in 2013-15), but the 35-year-old lefty is the unquestioned elder statesman on the Yanks staff and commands considerable respect in the clubhouse. Sabathia reportedly completed his alcohol rehabilitation program earlier this offseason, so the Yankees will hope 2016 is a much more stable year for him in all respects.

If the Yanks decide to start the year with six starters (which is reportedly unlikely) the rotation would probably be rounded out by Ivan Nova. The 29-year-old right-hander was limited to 17 starts last year as he worked his way back from Tommy John surgery, and the results were expectedly less than stellar. He put up a 5.07 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 94 frames and ended up on the losing end of 11 of his outings. Nova can become a free agent after the 2016 season, so the upcoming campaign will be very much a decisive one for him. A rebound performance would be a nice boost to the rest of the Yankees staff.

If injuries strike (as they so often do), someone like Bryan Mitchell could end up making starts. He could fill a swing role out of both the bullpen and rotation, similar to the recently departed Adam Warren.

The Lineup:

After a surprisingly impotent 2014 campaign, the Yankees offense came humming back to life for the most part last season. They finished second in MLB in runs (764) and fourth in homers (212), living up to their “Bronx Bombers” moniker once again. This uptick in production was thanks in large part to unexpectedly resurgent performances from veterans Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez. Teixeira swatted 31 home runs (his most since 2011) and posted a .906 OPS (his best since 2009, his first year in New York). And no one could have imagined A-Rod belting 33 long balls of his own and driving in 86 runs after his season-long suspension.

The Yankees will likely need more of the same from these two if they want to remain competitive in 2016, but that may be a bit too optimistic given their ages and injury histories. Teixeira will be 36 in April, and A-Rod will turn 41 in July. While they could very well enjoy productive seasons once again, similar numbers as last year are no sure thing.

However, several of the Yanks’ other key lineup pieces experienced sizable performance drop-offs in the second half of the season last year. Brian McCann, Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury were the main culprits in this respect, and if they can avoid the same second half swoons in 2016, that will take much of the pressure off guys like Teixeira and Rodriguez.

The club’s biggest lineup addition this offseason comes in the form of Starlin Castro, who arrived in a trade from the Cubs and will take over at second base. Though his time in Chicago featured its ups and downs, it would be hard for him not to outdo Stephen Drew‘s woeful performance from last year. Shortstop Didi Gregorius came into his own last season after a rough start, and the Yankees will hope he and Castro can form a young, athletic middle infield combination for years to come.

Outfielder Aaron Hicks is another intriguing player to watch. Acquired from the Twins for backup catcher John Ryan Murphy, Hicks for the moment looks like he will slide into Chris Young’s fourth outfielder/platoon role from a year ago. Hicks boasted a .307/.375/.495 line against lefties in 2015 and could see his fair share of at-bats, especially if Ellsbury and/or Gardner struggle, or whenever veteran Carlos Beltran needs a day off.

The Yankees lineup has the pieces to be productive again in 2016, but it may depend on the new faces (Castro, Hicks) and bounce-back candidates (Gardner, Ellsbury, McCann, Chase Headley) picking up the slack from any decline from A-Rod and Teixeira. That’s somewhat of a gamble. Greg Bird would have helped, but this week’s news that he will miss the season makes it even more important for everyone to stay healthy.

Projected Starting Lineup:

Jacoby Ellsbury – CF
Brett Gardner – LF
Alex Rodriguez – DH
Mark Teixeira – 1B
Carlos Beltran – RF
Brian McCann – C
Chase Headley – 3B
Starlin Castro – 2B
Didi Gregorius – SS

The Bullpen:

If you’re looking for a reason to watch the Yankees this year, this is it. GM Brian Cashman made his bullpen’s dynamic duo into a three-headed monster, nabbing closer Aroldis Chapman from the Reds to add to Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances. The trio owned three of the top four strikeout rates among relievers last season, and now they’re all in the same pen. To put it simply, the late innings are not going to be fun for Yankees opponents this year.

Some might question why the Yanks spent resources improving what was already a major strength. Unable to add anything in the way of starting pitching, they likely figured they might as well try to make games even shorter. Opposing lineups will have six innings to do their damage more often than not, and maybe even fewer on days Betances goes multiple frames.

The Yankees also have a decent track record in filling out the other ranks in their bullpen. Lefty Chasen Shreve was a pleasant surprise last season and should provide Girardi with another solid relief option. Youngsters like Jacob Lindgren (another southpaw) and James Pazos could also see some innings this year.

Competition:

The Yankees don’t have a whole lot of roster flexibility heading into 2016 Spring Training, but there are certainly a few storylines to follow. The starting lineup is more or less set, but the team will have to pin down a backup catcher after trading Murphy. Austin Romine is the safe choice, but they could also turn to 23-year-old Gary Sanchez. The prospect is coming off an impressive showing in the Arizona Fall League.

Of course, on a team with its fair share of veterans like this one, DL stints are a distinct possibility, and players who figure to start the year in the minors can still set themselves apart in the spring to ensure they get the first call when the injury bug hits. Outfielders Slade Heathcott and Mason Williams may fit into this category.

Some fans might be wondering if they will see Aaron Judge sometime this year, and while the team has big hopes for the slugger, it’s more likely the aforementioned Heathcott or Williams would get the first shot in the event of an outfield opening. Keep in mind Judge hit just .224 in 61 games at Triple-A last year, so another year of seasoning may be in order. When Beltran’s contract ends after this season, Judge could very well get his opportunity.

Bench players like Aaron Hicks and Dustin Ackley could also make bids for increased early playing time with strong spring showings.

The Bottom Line:

The Yankees finished at 87-75 in 2015, but they certainly didn’t help their case by dropping six of their final seven regular season games. They placed second in the AL East behind the surging Blue Jays and grabbed the first AL Wild Card. Their struggles continued into the postseason, however, as the Astros blanked them in the one-game playoff.

The team will look to avoid another disappointing outcome in 2016, but whether they exceed or fall short of last year’s win total will hinge on a plethora of factors. Did certain players overachieve last year, or can they pick up where they left off? Will a truly exceptional bullpen be enough to make up for a suspect lineup and rotation?

Much will also depend on how the Yanks’ divisional foes fare. The Red Sox made headlines by inking David Price to a monster contract and dealing for closer Craig Kimbrel, but just how much of an effect will they have on the win-loss column? Boston finished with a division-worst 78 victories last year.

The Jays lost Price, but their high-powered offense should still mash its way to considerable success. Will they remain the class of the East, or fall back down to earth? The Orioles’ mediocre starting pitching could be even weaker with the departure of Wei-Yin Chen, but they sport a formidable lineup of their own after retaining Chris Davis.

Next: Reds Spring Training Preview

There’s a sense in Yankeeland that these are quasi-transition years, seasons in which the franchise aims to position itself for the future while still contending. The 2016 campaign should indicate just how well that plan is working.

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