Predicting the Final 2016 NL West Standings
Pitching will continue to be the narrative in the NL West, but the difference for the 2016 season is that rotations have shifted, which could allow for a shift in the final division standings. The division has two of the best left-handed starting pitchers in Clayton Kershaw and Madison Bumgarner, and they also have two of the best right-handed pitchers in Zack Greinke and Johnny Cueto.
Aside from the big names, there is great pitching depth with two teams that are expected to fight to be atop the NL West with last year’s division-winning Los Angeles Dodgers and the runner-up San Francisco Giants. However, the Arizona Diamondbacks have now thrown their hat into the mix following a slew of offseason moves.
With the onslaught of pitching in the NL West this season, the biggest determining factor of the divisional race may be offense. Runs are going to be hard to come by due to the influx of pitching. If that’s the case, the Colorado Rockies may be the dark horse or a bold prediction to finish near the top of the division. The popular opinion, though, may be that the Rockies and San Diego Padres will be jockeying for the top draft picks for the 2017 MLB Draft.
There is a plethora of pitching in the division and the same goes for offensive firepower amongst all teams. The division may not be as wide open as some of the others around baseball, but the top of the division is capable of producing the National League’s pennant winner.
Next: 5. San Diego Padres
5. San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres Projected Record: 65-97
Key Additions: SS Alexei Ramirez, P Carlos Villanueva, OF Jon Jay, 2B Jose Pirela, SS Javier Guerra, OF Manuel Margot
Key Subtractions: OF Justin Upton, CP Craig Kimbrel, SP Ian Kennedy, SP Bud Norris, 2B Jedd Gyorko, SP Odresimer Despaigne
Biggest Strength: Outfield depth
Biggest Weakness: Lineup holes
The Padres are entering a re-building period following a failed contending attempt as big spenders. The failed efforts come after signing pitcher James Shields and outfielder Matt Kemp. They also acquired outfielder Justin Upton, Melvin Upton Jr. and closer Craig Kimbrel only to see two of the three gone before 2016.
They did sign shortstop Alexei Ramirez and pitcher Carlos Villanueva as transitional pieces. Outfielder Jon Jay will likely factor into the crowded outfield. He could be the fourth starter when someone needs a day off or could also be a valuable bench piece with his ability to hit for contact and steal bases.
Shortstop was a position where the Padres were lacking last season, so Ramirez will be key defensively and in their lineup. Villanueva will be battling for the fourth or fifth spot in the Padres’ rotation and if he doesn’t land in the rotation, he likely end up in the bullpen.
San Diego has added several young assets this offseason, including second baseman Jose Pirela, shortstop Javier Guerra and outfielder Manuel Margot. Pirela hit .230 in 37 games for the New York Yankees last season and was much better in triple-A with a .325/.390/.433 slash line in 259 plate appearances. He will likely platoon at second and third base with Yangervis Solarte and Cory Spangenberg.
Live Feed class=inline-text id=inline-text-9
Friars on Base
Margot could factor into the outfield situation this season. He was most recently ranked as the Padres’ second-best prospect by Baseball America. Guerra spent the 2015 season in single-A for the Boston Red Sox. He’s listed as the Padres’ top prospect by Baseball America.
The future is certainly bright for the Padres, and it could be brighter if it weren’t for their lack of offensive firepower. With the recent success of growing prospects within, the Padres appear to be re-modeling their franchise after the Houston Astros and Kansas City Royals. But they still have top pitchers in their rotation.
Don’t let the lineup distract you from the Padres’ strength: their starting rotation. While the loss of Ian Kennedy hurts, the Padres return Shields, Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner. The top of the rotation has three veterans that could play a major factor into the Padres’ success in 2016, but each of the three need to remain healthy.
The three combined to go 29-35 last season with Ross stealing the show. He had a 3.26 ERA and a FIP of 2.98. Shields struggled with the Padres with a 3.91 ERA, his worst since 2010, and a career-worst 4.45 FIP. While Cashner’s ERA was the worst of the trio at 4.34, he didn’t have the worst FIP (3.85). He was a let down though since he was building off of a season where he had a 2.55 ERA and 3.09 FIP.
The rotation should bounce back for the Padres in 2016. Shields had an adjustment period and won four of his last six starts in 2015. More can be expected of the top of the rotation, despite the loss of Kennedy.
With Kimbrel being shipped to Boston, Joaquin Benoit should emerge as the Padres’ closer. He was the primary set-up man for Kimbrel last season with 28 holds and two saves. Kevin Quackenbush, Nick Vincent and Shawn Kelley will factor into late-game roles and should be highly successful.
Don’t expect a lot from the Padres in 2016. Their pitching will be their strong point, but with gaps in the infield and lineup they will only be as good as Kemp and Wil Myers carry them.
Next: 4. Colorado Rockies
4. Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies Projected Record: 73-89
Key Additions: OF Gerardo Parra, RP Jake McGee, RP Chad Qualls, RP Jason Motte
Key Subtractions: 1B Justin Morneau, SP Kyle Kendrick, OF Corey Dickerson
Biggest Strength: Lineup Depth
Biggest Weakness: Starting Pitching
The Rockies had the writing on the wall last season when they traded shortstop Troy Tulowitzki to the Toronto Blue Jays. They received three solid pitchers in the deal, including Miguel Castro who pitched in five games for the Rockies last season. He will likely find himself in the bullpen this season, as the Rox need all the help they can get.
Colorado did their best to address the bullpen this offseason. They signed relievers Chad Qualls and Jason Motte. Then they traded for hard-throwing left-hander Jake McGee from the Tampa Bay Rays.
Live Feed class=inline-text id=inline-text-7Friars on Base
Qualls is a good fit for the Rockies as a sinker baller. He should induce a lot of ground balls, which is needed in Denver. Motte is a guy that throws hard. Between his fastball and his cutter, he throws fastballs the majority of the time and will mix in an occasional slider. McGee throws hard fastballs and should be the Rockies closer in 2016.
The Rockies added outfielder Gerardo Parra, who will be a good fit at a corner outfield position. Adding him into the mix with Charlie Blackman and Carlos Gonzalez makes for a very good, if not great all-around outfield.
The emergence of Ben Paulson at first base made it easier on the Rockies’ front office in letting Justin Morneau walk away. Nolan Arenado will be strong again at third base. Having D.J. LeMahieu and Jose Reyes up the middle with Daniel Descalso platooning will round out a very good infield.
Starting pitching is going to be the biggest issue for the Rockies, as usual. They had eight different pitchers with 10 or more starts last season. According to the team’s website, Jorge De La Rosa is at the top of the rotation and is followed by Chad Bettis, Tyler Chatwood, Jordan Lyles and Jon Gray. Chatwood missed the 2015 season due to Tommy John surgery, but the other four projected starters did not have good 2015 campaigns.
Pitching in a hitter’s park is difficult for any team, but the Rockies should have no excuse for some of their ERAs. De La Rosa (4.17) and Bettis (4.23) both had ERAs under 4.30, but Lyles (5.14) and Gray (5.53) had miserable seasons in their combined 19 starts.
There are still several free agent pitchers that can’t do much worse than what the Rockies had last season. Yovani Gallardo, Mat Latos, Tim Lincecum and Jeremy Guthrie are all veteran pitchers that could have an instant impact on the Rockies’ rotation.
It is without question that the Rockies have a solid lineup, especially with CarGo, Arenado and Paulson returning to the heart of the lineup. They also have improved their bullpen, but the starting pitching is the most concerning aspect of their roster moving forward. There needs to be stability and health in the rotation for the Rockies to have any chance at a wild card spot.
Next: 3. Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks Projected Record: 87-75
Key Additions: SP Zack Greinke, SP Shelby Miller, SS Jean Segura
Key Subtractions: SP Jeremy Hellickson, SP Jhoulys Chacin, SP Chase Anderson, OF Ender Inciarte, IF Aaron Hill
Biggest Strength: Starting 8
Biggest Weakness: Bullpen
Arizona made some win-now moves this offseason, similar to what the Padres attempted in 2015. The Diamondbacks are set up nicely with an ace, 2015 Cy Young finalist Zack Greinke. Adding Shelby Miller at the top of the rotation is going to strengthen the one-two punch.
Shortstop Jean Segura will be the future at the position after the Diamondbacks traded No. 1 overall pick Dansby Swanson to the Atlanta Braves. Segura has a career slash line of .266/.301/.360. He spent the majority of his career with the Milwaukee Brewers, but the last two seasons have been a struggle for him. Others around the league believe a fresh start in Arizona will allow him to bounce back, according to Fox Sports‘ Ken Rosenthal.
It always helps to build around a franchise player like Paul Goldschmidt, who has been a top hitter in the National League for years now. Goldy finished second in MVP voting, earned his third All-Star appearance, and his second Silver Slugger and Gold Glove awards. He hit for a career high .321 average with 31 home runs and 110 RBI. He also added sneaky value on the base paths, stealing 21 stolen bases in 26 tries.
Live Feed class=inline-text id=inline-text-8
Blog Red Machine
The D’Backs already have a strong outfield with David Peralta, A.J. Pollack and Yasmany Tomas and their infield got better with the addition of Segura. Catcher Wellington Castillo played in 30 games with the Chicago Cubs and Seattle Mariners before hitting .255 with 17 home runs for the Diamondbacks, and he should factor into their lineup again in 2016.
Second baseman Chris Owings and third baseman Jake Lamb are the wild cards in Arizona’s lineup. Lamb’s played 144 games in his career and has a slash line of .254/.314/.382. At third base he has a .976 fielding percentage in 129 games.
Owings has played in 258 games over the past three seasons at second base and shortstop. He only hit .227 last season, but he showed good gap power by hitting 27 doubles.
Despite the uncertainties of Owings and Lamb, the Diamondbacks’ lineup looks strong. Having the ability to platoon Phil Gosselin in the infield adds depth with the young Owings and Lamb. They will likely have to add to their infield to make a late playoff push.
Their rotation is a lot stronger with Greinke and Miller at the top. Most know the success that Greinke had in 2015, and probably Miller’s story of going 6-17 despite a 3.07 ERA. Patrick Corbin continued to prove he’s capable of being a middle-of-the-rotation starter with a 3.60 ERA in 16 starts.
The back-end of the rotation has a weakness with Rubby De La Rosa, who went 14-9 with a 4.67 ERA last season. Left-hander Robbie Ray is penciled into the fifth slot after going 5-12 with a 3.52 ERA in 2015. Arizona could also add an arm to the back-end of its rotation, or promote from within the organization to find the best fit. However, De La Rosa and Ray could improve since they are both young.
Veteran closer Brad Ziegler is the anchor to the bullpen. He had 30 saves in 32 appearances with an 1.85 ERA in 2015. Daniel Hudson has been a starter before, but last season he mad 63 relief appearances and had a 3.86 ERA.
Josh Collmenter is in a similar boat, though he made 12 starts last season due to injuries and instability in the rotation. Collmenter made 32 relief appearances and finished the season with a 3.79 ERA, but had a career-worst 4.65 FIP.
The bullpen is the biggest weakness for the Diamondbacks. Outside of Ziegler, there isn’t a reliable arm to set him up and shut the door like the elite teams have.
The Diamondbacks are good enough to contend for the NL West division title and make a deep playoff run, but they need to sure up a few holes, namely their bullpen, to ensure postseason success.
Next: 2. San Francisco Giants
2. San Francisco Giants
San Francisco Giants Projected Record: 92-70
Key Additions: SP Johnny Cueto, SP Jeff Samardzija, OF Denard Span
Key Subtractions: SP Mike Leake, SP Ryan Vogelsong, RP Jeremy Affeldt, RP Yusmeiro Petit, 2B Marco Scutaro
Biggest Strength: Starting Pitching
Biggest Weakness: Outfield
The Giants won 84 games last season, but did not make the playoffs. Injuries are a part of the game and it hit the Giants hard in 2015, but players continued to step up. That will allow the Giants to have good depth this season.
The most significant additions came to their rotation. It was thought that the Giants would only need to add one pitcher to their already strong combination of Madison Bumgarner, Jake Peavy, Matt Cain and Chris Heston. Instead the Giants went out and signed Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija to long-term deals and really bolstered the staff.
Cueto signed a six-year, $130 million contract, which he earned due to his success with the Cincinnati Reds. He has a 3.21 ERA when pitching in the National League. Cueto is deceptive with multiple deliveries and great movement on his off-speed pitches.
Samardzija inked a five-year, $90 million deal after having the worst season of his career. He went 11-13 with a 4.96 ERA and a 4.23 FIP with the Chicago White Sox.
Live Feed class=inline-text id=inline-text-9
House That Hank Built
The rotation is the strong point of the Giants roster entering the 2016 season. It comes with little argument that they have the best rotation in the division. Bumgarner, Cain, Peavy and Heston were all members of the 2014 World Series championship team, and with it being an even-numbered year, history may repeat itself.
The Giants’ lineup is strong with one of the best catchers in the game in Buster Posey. Hunter Pence‘s power and the emergence of Matt Duffy brings a strong attack in the middle of the lineup. However, the outfield will need to step up their production and the signing of Denard Span should help.
Span should hit at the top of the lineup after hitting .301 with a .365 on-base percentage a season ago. He was brought in for his offense and his speed will help cover ground in the outfield. Angel Pagan had the worst season of his Giants’ career in 2015. He hit .262 with a .303 on-base percentage, which is underwhelming since he doesn’t hit for great power. He hit just three in 2015.
Where the Giants lack offensively, they make up for it on defense. They were tied for second in MLB with a fielding percentage to of .987. Shortstop Brandon Crawford is one of the first names brought up when discussing the best shortstops in baseball because of his defense. Last season he had 20 defensive runs saved and he has 45 in his five-year career. Posey saved a career-best nine runs saved at the catcher position last season and also had four DRS at first base to total 13 DRS.
The Giants have a great rotation and defense, which benefits their dynamic bullpen. They don’t have the flashy flamethrowers like the Royals, but they are just as effective.
Santiago Casilla saved 38 of 44 appearances in 2015 and had 62 strikeouts in 58 innings pitched. Sergio Romo made 70 appearances and had a tremendous 1.91 FIP and a very good 2.98 ERA. Javier Lopez and George Kontos are in the same boat in that they have good ERA’s, but their FIP is not great.
The Giants could use more depth in their outfield, especially with Pagan and Pence’s injury problems. But they have the versatility with some infielders that can play corner outfield positions. In the end, the rotation and bullpen, along with the team’s great defense will carry them to the playoffs.
Next: 1. Los Angeles Dodgers
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers Projected Record: 95-65
Key Additions: SP Scott Kazmir, SP Kenta Maeda, RP Joe Blanton
Key Subtractions: SP Zack Greinke, SS Jimmy Rollins
Biggest Strength: Positional Depth
Biggest Weakness: Bullpen
The Dodgers are looking to improve upon their rather disappointing first-round playoff exit, despite winning the NL West in 2015. They lost Cy Young finalist and ace Zack Greinke, but their rotation has more depth entering 2016.
Adding left-hander Scott Kazmir and right-hander Kenta Maeda give the Dodgers much-needed depth. Kazmir is projected as the No. 2 starter with Maeda slotting in at the fourth spot in the rotation. Of course, the best pitcher in baseball, Clayton Kershaw, will anchor as the staff’s ace with Brett Anderson and Hyun-Jin Ryu pitching third and fifth, respectively.
Live Feed class=inline-text id=inline-text-7
BoSox Injection
Maeda, 27, comes to the Dodgers from Japan, which is always a wild card. However, pitchers such as Yu Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka and Daisuke Matsuzaka all differ from Maeda. Maeda doesn’t throw a forkball or splitter that causes pressure on arms. He relies heavily on his fastball and his slider.
He needs to develop his changeup and curveball to keep hitters off balance. The biggest adjustment that Maeda will need to make is building up endurance and stamina. In Japan, pitcher’s usually pitch every six or seven days, as opposed to pitching every five days in MLB.
The bullpen is the team’s biggest weakness. The Dodgers were expected to acquire Aroldis Chapman from the Cincinnati Reds before a domestic abuse incident was brought to the media’s attention. The Dodgers and Reds ended up voiding their agreement, and Los Angeles only added Joe Blanton to their bullpen.
He excelled with the Pittsburgh Pirates last season. In 24 appearances he had a 1.57 ERA and a 2.11 FIP. Blanton’s not a power guy that is going to blow the ball by hitters, but he struck out 39 hitters in 34 innings with the Pirates. But it likely won’t be enough to turn the entire bullpen’s struggles around.
Once the Dodgers are completely healthy, they will have the same positional depth that they had in 2015. The biggest addition to the Dodgers’ lineup is shortstop Corey Seager, who is ranked as Baseball America’s top prospect entering 2016. Seager, the brother of Mariners’ third baseman Kyle, hit .337 with a .425 on-base percentage in 113 plate appearances in 2015.
The Dodgers return the veteran leadership of Adrian Gonzalez, Yasmani Grandal, Justin Turner, Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier. They will be called upon to lead a rather young team with Seager, Joc Pederson, Yasiel Puig, Alex Guerrero and Kike Hernandez. All of these players can play, and they all seem to have fun when their offense is gelling.
It was previously mentioned that the Giants were tied for the second best defense in the MLB. Well, the Dodgers were first in fielding percentage at .988. Having lost the defensive shortstop in Jimmy Rollins, that number may dip a bit in 2016 with the rookie Seager taking over.
Overall, the depth of the Dodgers rotation will carry them to a higher win total in 2016. If they remain healthy, they will have Alex Wood and Mike Bolsinger to use in the bullpen and for spot starts. First year manager Dave Roberts has a good problem with the depth the Dodgers have all around.