Predicting the Final 2016 NL West Standings
5. San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres Projected Record: 65-97
Key Additions: SS Alexei Ramirez, P Carlos Villanueva, OF Jon Jay, 2B Jose Pirela, SS Javier Guerra, OF Manuel Margot
Key Subtractions: OF Justin Upton, CP Craig Kimbrel, SP Ian Kennedy, SP Bud Norris, 2B Jedd Gyorko, SP Odresimer Despaigne
Biggest Strength: Outfield depth
Biggest Weakness: Lineup holes
The Padres are entering a re-building period following a failed contending attempt as big spenders. The failed efforts come after signing pitcher James Shields and outfielder Matt Kemp. They also acquired outfielder Justin Upton, Melvin Upton Jr. and closer Craig Kimbrel only to see two of the three gone before 2016.
They did sign shortstop Alexei Ramirez and pitcher Carlos Villanueva as transitional pieces. Outfielder Jon Jay will likely factor into the crowded outfield. He could be the fourth starter when someone needs a day off or could also be a valuable bench piece with his ability to hit for contact and steal bases.
Shortstop was a position where the Padres were lacking last season, so Ramirez will be key defensively and in their lineup. Villanueva will be battling for the fourth or fifth spot in the Padres’ rotation and if he doesn’t land in the rotation, he likely end up in the bullpen.
San Diego has added several young assets this offseason, including second baseman Jose Pirela, shortstop Javier Guerra and outfielder Manuel Margot. Pirela hit .230 in 37 games for the New York Yankees last season and was much better in triple-A with a .325/.390/.433 slash line in 259 plate appearances. He will likely platoon at second and third base with Yangervis Solarte and Cory Spangenberg.
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Margot could factor into the outfield situation this season. He was most recently ranked as the Padres’ second-best prospect by Baseball America. Guerra spent the 2015 season in single-A for the Boston Red Sox. He’s listed as the Padres’ top prospect by Baseball America.
The future is certainly bright for the Padres, and it could be brighter if it weren’t for their lack of offensive firepower. With the recent success of growing prospects within, the Padres appear to be re-modeling their franchise after the Houston Astros and Kansas City Royals. But they still have top pitchers in their rotation.
Don’t let the lineup distract you from the Padres’ strength: their starting rotation. While the loss of Ian Kennedy hurts, the Padres return Shields, Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner. The top of the rotation has three veterans that could play a major factor into the Padres’ success in 2016, but each of the three need to remain healthy.
The three combined to go 29-35 last season with Ross stealing the show. He had a 3.26 ERA and a FIP of 2.98. Shields struggled with the Padres with a 3.91 ERA, his worst since 2010, and a career-worst 4.45 FIP. While Cashner’s ERA was the worst of the trio at 4.34, he didn’t have the worst FIP (3.85). He was a let down though since he was building off of a season where he had a 2.55 ERA and 3.09 FIP.
The rotation should bounce back for the Padres in 2016. Shields had an adjustment period and won four of his last six starts in 2015. More can be expected of the top of the rotation, despite the loss of Kennedy.
With Kimbrel being shipped to Boston, Joaquin Benoit should emerge as the Padres’ closer. He was the primary set-up man for Kimbrel last season with 28 holds and two saves. Kevin Quackenbush, Nick Vincent and Shawn Kelley will factor into late-game roles and should be highly successful.
Don’t expect a lot from the Padres in 2016. Their pitching will be their strong point, but with gaps in the infield and lineup they will only be as good as Kemp and Wil Myers carry them.
Next: 4. Colorado Rockies