Predicting the Final 2016 AL West Standings
For general fans of Major League Baseball, the AL West pennant race was as exciting to follow in 2015 as any other.
On many blogs, national syndications and analysts minds, the preseason favorites to come away with a first place finish in the division was the Seattle Mariners. Las Vegas tended to agree with that sentiment for the most part as well, giving them 16-1 odds, just a hair longer than the Los Angeles Angels were at 15-1.
Out of the six baseball pundits over at the now defunct but respected Grantland.com, four writers (Jonah Keri, Ben Lindbergh, Mallory Rubin and Ryan O’Hanlon) all predicted the Mariners would win the AL West, with Keri going so far as to say they would win the American League pennant. The other two, Rany Jazayerli and Michael Baumann, both predicted the Angels would sit atop the West come October.
After a disastrous 2014 in which they finished dead last, the Texas Rangers (88-74) played incredible baseball down the stretch and snagged the 2015 AL West division crown, all without the services of ace Yu Darvish. And of course, few could forget the young and fiery Houston Astros (86- 76) that finished a close second and went on to capture an AL Wild Card seed.
Along with last year’s NL Central, the AL West was baseball’s most competitive division. Only three games separated the Rangers from the third place Angels (85-77) in 2015. With an influx of young talent, this division should be primed for another exciting finish in 2016.
Next: Fifth Place
5. Oakland Athletics
Key additions: SP Henderson Alvarez, 1B Yonder Alonso, INF Jed Lowrie, RP John Axford, RP Ryan Madson
Key departures: 3B Brett Lawrie, RP Drew Pomeranz, SP Jesse Chavez
Strength: Bullpen
Weakness: Defense
The ever affable Oakland Athletics will have another tough go in 2016. With some of Billy Beane’s recent transactions, it would appear he doesn’t expect the team to compete for relevancy in the AL West this year.
Despite playing in a decidedly pitcher friendly ballpark, Oakland had the worst fielding percentage of any team in MLB in 2015 with a .979 mark. What’s worse, teams’ strongest assets with a mitt are usually supposed to play shortstop, but Marcus Semien was anything but stout. He led all big league shortstops with 35 errors and an ugly .947 FPCT. He did not help out much on offense either, slashing only .257/.310/.405 and finishing second on the A’s in strikeouts.
Lowrie could very well platoon with Semien and his short leash at SS with Eric Sogard seeing additional starts at second, or the A’s may just swap Semien and Lowrie’s positions altogether. Lowrie played mostly third base in Houston last year, but he’ll provide capable insurance to the infield.
Elsewhere around the bases, Danny Valencia was great in between Toronto and Oakland in 2015, but historically has struggled against righties with a career .237 BA compared to a .321 clip versus lefties. That, and at 31, Valencia has only once registered more than 350 at-bats in his career as he’s traditionally just been depth on the bench.
At first base, where normally a team wants power at the plate, the A’s acquired Alonso from San Diego. He’s never hit better than .282 with nine home runs in a full season at Petco Park. At 28, there’s no reason to think he will suddenly find a power stroke at O.co Coliseum. For close to an $11.7 million salary in 2016, DH Billy Butler will need to improve drastically on his 2015 line of .251-15-65. Catcher Stephen Vogt was a pleasant surprise in baseball’s first half last season. He was named to his first career All-Star Game, but slumped mightily in the second half (.217-4-15).
The outfield should be a bright spot for Oakland in 2016. Coco Crisp needs to stay healthy, Billy Burns in center is an exciting young talent and the A’s were able to ink veteran right fielder Josh Reddick to a one year deal in the offseason.
It’s no secret the A’s biggest chip they hold is ace pitcher Sonny Gray. Though not set to be a free agent until 2020, deciding whether to trade him for more pieces in the future will be a constant battle Beane has with himself in the coming years. Alvarez won’t be ready for Opening Day, but Jesse Hahn and Kendall Graveman both showed flashes of valuable production in 2015.
In the bullpen, a healthy Sean Doolittle should return and backend an apt group of relievers comprised of newcomers Madson, Axford, Liam Hendriks and Marc Rzepczynski.
Next: Fourth Place
4. Los Angeles Angels
Key additions: OF Daniel Nava, C Geovany Soto, SS Andrelton Simmons, INF Yunel Escobar
Key departures: SS Erick Aybar, C Chris Iannetta
Strength: Center Field
Weakness: Designated Hitter
The Los Angeles Angels have two future Hall of Famers in their lineup. One is Albert Pujols, who is in his twilight years — the second is of course Mike Trout, who is just getting started. At 36, Pujols had a nice rebound season in 2015 but he’s no longer capable of hitting .300 and underwent offseason foot surgery. Trout, only 24, can do a lot of things great, but he can’t single handedly win the Halos a division.
Kole Calhoun is solid in right field, while Nava is probably nothing more than a platoon guy. Left field and designated hitter were huge holes for this club last season and will continue to be again in 2016. The club will save some runs with the acquisition of Simmons to play shortstop, but the Angels gave up a fair amount to get him, including a top pitching prospect in Sean Newcomb.
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The rotation has Garrett Richards and Andrew Heaney, two youngsters with upside. Los Angeles likely won’t get the productivity out of two veterans that their price tags would suggest though. Jered Weaver‘s velocity keeps dropping while his ERA has become inflated every season since 2011, to an eventual career high of 4.64 last year. He will be due $20 million in 2016.
C.J. Wilson bounced back a bit in 2015 from a down 2014, though it’s hard to justify another $20 million salary for a guy with a career 3.74 ERA who has started 30 or more games in his career only five times despite turning 35 last November. Matt Shoemaker and Hector Santiago are wild cards heading into the season.
The bullpen will be okay so long as Huston Street stays healthy, but the bottom line is a team that finished 27th in team batting average and 20th in runs scored across the league last year did not do enough to improve their offense. Don’t expect substantial assistance at the plate from the minors either. As ranked by MLB.com, the Angels’ top four prospects are all arms.
Next: Third Place
3. Seattle Mariners
Key additions: C Chris Iannetta, 1B Adam Lind, OF Nori Aoki, OF Leonys Martin, SP Wade Miley, RP Steve Cishek
Key departures: OF Mark Trumbo, SP Roenis Elias, RP Carson Smith, RP Fernando Rodney
Strength: Rotation
Weakness: Bullpen
Jack is out, Jerry is in. Jerry Dipoto, that is. Dipoto is no stranger to being around winning ball clubs. He was the GM of the Angels from 2011-2015, a stretch in which the club posted a .538 winning percentage and won an AL West crown in 2014. After feuding with manager Mike Scioscia for parts of 2015, Dipoto eventually resigned and found himself at the reigns of another GM job in the AL West.
Seattle re-signed Hisashi Iwakuma to a one year deal. Hopefully his 34-year-old right arm is’t burnt out just yet. Kuma and Felix Hernandez should provide another formidable 1-2 punch in 2016. The veteran Miley was brought in for some consistency and his ability to eat innings. If the super talented James Paxton and Taijuan Walker can stay healthy and pitch with command, respectively, the rotation should carry this club.
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The bullpen will be up and down in 2016. After collectively posting an MLB best ERA (2.59) in 2014, the wheels fell off last year (4.15). The submarine throwing Cishek is no guarantee at closer. Tom Wilhelmsen was traded within the division to Texas and replaced in free agency with Joaquin Benoit, who will be 39 by mid-season. Expect bottom third to middle of the pack numbers from this group.
Nelson Cruz proved a lot of doubters wrong in 2015. He built on his 2014 numbers by swatting four more homers (44) and hitting 31 points higher (.302) in his inaugural season with the M’s from 2014’s with Baltimore. Kyle Seager should continue to develop at third base, while for Seattle’s sake, the hope is Robinson Cano will be happier in 2016 and not regress any further. Adam Lind should be a decent upgrade over anyone who has played first base for the M’s in the last decade or so and Iannetta was brought in to help shore up the backstop position.
The outfield should be a solid unit but not the strength of the club. Their best kept secret might be the oft injured Franklin Gutierrez, who could enter spring training as a bench player. After missing all of 2014, the M’s gladly re-signed him to a one-year $1.5 million deal after he slashed .292/.354/.620 with 15 home runs and 35 RBI in only 59 games last season.
Next: Second Place
2. Texas Rangers
Key additions: RP Tom Wilhelmsen, OF James Jones
Key departures: SP Yovani Gallardo, 1B Mike Napoli
Strength: Lineup
Weakness: Closer
For a club that did not do a lot with free agency or trades, the Texas Rangers will look nearly identical to how they finished their 2015 season in terms of personnel. The one huge piece that will be back is Yu Darvish. If/when he and Cole Hamels are healthy and effective, there might not be a more dominant LHP/RHP duo on a rotation in baseball.
The outfield and infield are both sound as well. Offensively, the Rangers finished 3rd and 10th in runs and team average last year, respectively. The club committed a lot of errors in 2015, but their bats and timely pitching made up for it. Adrian Beltre is getting long in the tooth, but he still proved his worth in 2015 alongside veteran names like Prince Fielder and Shin-Soo Choo. Delino DeShields showed lots of promise, while Josh Hamilton could be the club’s x-factor in left field.
Closer Shawn Tolleson has been good as a late innings reliever in his career, but not great. The 28-year-old tends to surrender a lot of home runs. That’s not ideal in a division with a number of hitter’s ballparks and bats like Trout, Cruz and Fielder to deal with. It’s not necessarily that Tolleson is the weakest link on the team, more so it would just be nice to see a team with such a well rounded roster having a formidable ninth inning arm.
One thing Texas has going for them is consistency and familiarity. Not a lot of new faces to report, so this team should gel early in the clubhouse and start racking up the wins.
Next: First Place
1. Houston Astros
Key additions: SP Doug Fister, RP Ken Giles, RP Wandy Rodriguez
Key departures: SP Scott Kazmir, 1B/DH Chris Carter, INF Jed Lowrie, RP Chad Qualls, C Hank Conger
Strength: Hitting for Power
Weakness: Corner infield positions
Both of Texas’ MLB teams have athletic lineups than can hit. They both possess legitimate aces on their rotations and are well managed ball clubs. Where Houston will find more ways to win games is in the offseason moves it made to improve their bullpen.
The Astros brought back on southpaw Tony Sipp for three years and $18 million. They will retain the services of Luke Gregerson and Josh Fields as well. Where the club set themselves apart from the Rangers was the trade to acquire Ken Giles. Giles looked like the Philadelphia Phillies’ closer of the future. After a strong rookie campaign in 2014 (45.2 IP, 1.18 ERA, 1.34 FIP), he slid in to the closer roles in 2015 after Jonathan Papelbon was shipped to Washington. Giles hurled 70 innings going 6-3, converted 15 saves, 87 strikeouts, posting a 1.80 ERA and 2.13 FIP.
Lineup wise, the Astros have one of the better outfields in the division. Two-time All-Star Carlos Gomez will man center, with Colby Rasmus in left and former top prospect George Springer in right. They’re solid up the middle as well with 2014 AL batting champ Jose Altuve and 2015 AL ROY Carlos Correa at shortstop.
Jon Singleton will be a big question mark at first base. He hasn’t found success in two previous big league stints, but at least the position is now solely his with Chris Carter in Milwaukee. This should give Singleton an opportunity to get into a routine. Evan Gattis proved himself worthy of full-time DH duties in 2015, compiling a .246-27-88 line. Luis Valbuena will not hit for average, but like most of the lineup, provides it with above average pop.
Dallas Keuchel is your defending AL Cy Young winner. He knows well how to pitch to contact and has willfully developed his slider into a nice strikeout pitch. At 28, Keuchel has good size at 6-foot-3, 210 lbs, suggesting durability and endurance will continue to be a huge plus with him. The only red flag surrounding him is his two-seam and four-seam fastball rarely touch 90 mph. Both pitches sat at 89.5 in 2015. The loss of Kazmir should be offset by Fister, while Collin McHugh and Lance McCullers will try and continue to take steps forward in their development.