The Pittsburgh Pirates were victims of the system in 2015. Their 98 wins would have been enough to win every other division in baseball last year. The NL Central is an entirely different animal, however. The Cardinals racked up 100 victories, and the Cubs finished just behind the Bucs with 97.
Rather than comfortably march into a division series matchup, Pittsburgh had to settle for the one-game Wild Card playoff, which they dropped 4-0 at the hands of the rival Cubs. It was a hugely disappointing and seemingly unfair outcome for a team that had achieved so much in the regular season, but that’s reality under the current postseason format.
The pressure will be even greater to capture the division title in 2016 so as to avoid any Wild Card uncertainty, but the Cards and Cubs will be thinking the same thing. As Spring Training nears, how are the Pirates looking in their quest to return to the playoffs and make a deeper run?
Key Additions: John Jaso, Jon Niese, Ryan Vogelsong, Kyle Lobstein
Key Subtractions: Neil Walker, Pedro Alvarez, A.J. Burnett, Antonio Bastardo
The Rotation:
The Pirates rotation was led by former number-one draft pick Gerrit Cole last season, and it almost certainly will be again this year. The 25-year-old Cole won 19 games with a 2.60 ERA, nabbing an All-Star appearance and finishing fourth in the Cy Young voting. He was a workhorse, providing 208 innings of work to the Pirates’ cause. Cole should be a legitimate ace once again in the upcoming campaign.
More from Call to the Pen
- Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
- Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
- Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
- 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals
The second spot in the rotation should be held by lefty Francisco Liriano. The ten-year veteran turned in a strong performance for Pittsburgh a year ago, notching 12 wins while managing a 3.38 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and a 9.9 K/9 rate. He turned 32 in October, but the Bucs will be expecting another solid showing from Liriano.
From there, things get a bit more hazy. A.J. Burnett (3.18 ERA in 26 starts), who enjoyed a late-career renaissance with the club, officially announced his retirement last season. 28-year-old southpaw Jeff Locke will likely slot into the middle of the rotation. He posted a 4.49 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 2015, but his 3.95 FIP was markedly better and the Pirates will hope for improved results this season, more in line with his All-Star 2013 (3.52 ERA in 30 starts).
The Bucs also added veterans Jon Niese and Ryan Vogelsong over the course of the offseason. Niese is coming off a largely mediocre campaign (4.13 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 2.05 K/BB) but boasts a much better 3.49 ERA over the previous three seasons.
Vogelsong put up a 4.67 ERA for the Giants last year out of both the rotation and bullpen, but he produced a 3.74 ERA over the previous four campaigns. The Pirates will hope the 38-year-old journeyman (who pitched for them from 2001 to 2006) still has another decent year in him.
Pittsburgh has a fair track record in getting the most out of veteran pitchers (see Burnett), so Niese and Vogelsong could turn into nice surprises for them this year. There are also a few intriguing options in the minor leagues. It still wouldn’t be shocking to see them in the market for a starter at some point, however.
The Lineup:
The Pirates offense didn’t exactly put up awe-inducing numbers in 2015, but it certainly got the job done. Their 697 runs were the eleventh-most in MLB, and though not the most powerful club (140 homers, good for just 23rd) they were fairly adept at getting on base (.323 OBP, ninth).
Pittsburgh will be expecting more of the same this season, as most of the key components of their lineup should be back. Five-time All-Star and former MVP Andrew McCutchen will continue to lead the group. Cutch overcame somewhat of a slow start last year to put up a representative stat line, slashing .292/.401/.488 with 23 home runs and 96 RBIs. There’s no reason not to expect another great year in his age 29 season.
The Bucs were also bolstered by the emergence of 26-year-old left fielder Starling Marte. He posted a .287/.337/.444 batting line with 19 homers and 81 RBIs while swiping 30 bases. At his young age, he could still be trending upward as well.
Pittsburgh will hope for a better season from 23-year-old right fielder Gregory Polanco, however, who struggled (.701 OPS) for the better part of his sophomore season in the big leagues.
Neil Walker will need to be replaced at second base, but with Josh Harrison, Jordy Mercer and Sean Rodriguez at the Pirates’ disposal, that shouldn’t be much of an issue.
The team is also looking at a bit of a question mark at first base, with Michael Morse and John Jaso potentially sharing time there.
The Bucs will also keep their fingers crossed that last year’s rookie surprise Jung Ho Kang returns successfully from last September’s ugly base running injury. There is hope that he might be ready for Opening Day.
Potential Starting Lineup:
- Gregory Polanco – RF
- Josh Harrison – 2B
- Andrew McCutchen – CF
- Starling Marte – LF
- Jung Ho Kang – 3B
- Michael Morse – 1B
- Francisco Cervelli – C
- Jordy Mercer – SS
- Pitcher’s Spot
Bullpen:
The Pirates sported one of the finest bullpens in baseball last season, and it figures to be another prominent strength in 2016. Pittsburgh relievers put up a 2.67 ERA last year, the best mark in MLB.
Closer Mark Melancon led both leagues with 51 saves, blowing only two chances all season. Left-hander Tony Watson was equally brilliant as a setup man, surrendering only 55 hits and a 1.91 ERA over 75.1 frames. These two should continue keeping the eighth and ninth innings on lockdown.
Jared Hughes (2.28 ERA in 67 IP) and Aquimedes Caminero (3.62 ERA in 74.2 IP) provide additional potent middle relief options. The team probably wouldn’t have minded keeping Joakim Soria around (2.03 ERA in 26.2 IP with Pittsburgh last year) but it’s still hard not to like this bullpen.
Newcomers Neftali Feliz and Juan Nicasio are candidates for mop-up duty, and Kyle Lobstein is a possible long-relief arm assuming he doesn’t end up in the rotation.
Competition:
The Pirates will likely use Spring Training to determine exactly how they will arrange their infield. Harrison, Mercer and Kang can all play at multiple spots around the diamond, so they have some flexibility in that regard.
More from Pittsburgh Pirates
- Trade Deadline: Pirates, Cardinals, and Cubs for sale: Brewers, Reds wish list
- What we got right and wrong about 3 surprising and disappointing MLB teams
- Grading Ben Cherington and the Pittsburgh Pirates front office at the season’s midway point
- Reds, Pirates, Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs: The good, bad, and injured
- Grading the City Connect uniforms just unveiled by the Pittsburgh Pirates
While Morse seems like the early favorite for reps at first base, Jaso could make a case for more playing time there if he has a good spring. He’ll need to prove he can handle the position though; the former catcher has only made two appearances at first in his career.
The back-end of the rotation will probably be determined during camp as well. While the veterans Niese and Vogelsong will likely get the first crack, 26-year-old Kyle Lobstein, acquired from the Tigers in December, is also worth keeping an eye on.
Top pitching prospect Tyler Glasnow could get a look at the major league level at some point. The 22-year-old 6’8″ righty was named Pittsburgh’s number-one prospect by Baseball America and posted a 2.39 ERA last year as he quickly rose to the Triple-A level.
Jameson Taillon is another highly-touted minor leaguer who could make an impact as he returns from Tommy John surgery.
Bottom Line:
The NL Central is arguably the toughest division in the league, and as we saw last year, you could win almost 100 games and only clinch a spot in the play-in game. The Pirates will have their work cut out for them if they want to win the division and avoid a repeat of last year’s disappointing conclusion. However, the reloaded Cubs look like early championship frontrunners and the Cardinals are perennial threats.
Fortunately for the Bucs, they will have most of the key players back from last year’s 98-win campaign and with a lineup largely under age 30, they likely won’t decline much. However, last year’s 93-69 Pythagorean record suggests the club may have overachieved a bit and some natural regression could be in order.
Next: Rays Spring Training Preview
Pittsburgh should be in for another strong season, but it’s hard not to see the Cubs on top of this division and the Pirates and Cards battling for Wild Card berths.