Blue Jays should consider letting aging vets walk
The Toronto Blue Jays will have the opportunity to get really young and really talented after the 2018 season if they let two aging veterans leave after this season.
Fans of the Toronto Blue Jays will vehemently disagree with this, but there are reasons to let either Jose Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion walk into free agency after the 2016 season.
Before the case to let them go is addressed, one must acknowledge that there is also a strong case, both in baseball sense and sentimentally, to keep both of them, especially Bautista. The Blue Jays are built to win now, as evidenced by their deep postseason run in 2015. Yes, they lost pitcher David Price to the division rival Boston Red Sox, but Marcus Stroman is back to take Price’s spot in the rotation and the Blue Jays got a helpful boost from an influx of young talent which will be under control for several years.
In regards to Bautista and Encarnacion specifically, both are approaching the downward slopes of their careers—Bautista is entering his age 35 season while Encarnacion is 33—but playing in Toronto, a hitters park, will help preserve their offensive value unless the artificial turf gets to them first. For example, the Steamer projection system has Bautista and Encarnacion billed for 10th and 15th in the majors in weighted runs created plus in 2016 and ninth and 11th, respectively, in weighted on base average.
The argument to let them walk revolves around the (potential) 2018 free agent class and the current state of the Blue Jays’ farm system. If the team gives both players three or four year deals, that will be money the team can’t spend on a class of free agents that is already making baseball executives salivate. Consider that potential free agents Manny Machado, Jose Iglesias, Jason Heyward, Bryce Harper, Jose Fernandez, Matt Harvey, Jose Quintana, Trevor Rosenthal and Shelby Miller will all be coming of their age 29 season or younger. Machado, Harper and Fernandez will be coming off their age 25 seasons. Clayton Kershaw, Dee Gordon, Dallas Keuchel, Garrett Richards and Craig Kimbrel will be coming off their age 30 seasons.
With so many quality free agents entering the field so young, having spare cash would increase the Blue Jays’ chances of nabbing one (or two) of the top flight free agents. For example, adding Machado to replace current Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson—who becomes a free agent at the same time—would add to the young core that will already be in place.
More from Call to the Pen
- Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
- Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
- Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
- 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals
Which brings us to the Blue Jays farm system. Baseball Prospectus came out Tuesday with its Blue Jays preseason top 10 prospects list for 2016. The BP staff writes, “Almost everyone on the 2015 list either graduated or got dealt,” which is true: Of the 10 prospects from the 2015 list, only pitcher Sean Reid-Foley and catcher Max Pentecost appear on the 2016 list. But that isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Sanchez, outfielder Dalton Pompey, second baseman Devon Travis (who wasn’t on the 2015 list) and pitcher Robert Osuna were all prospects last season but made big contributions and have the potential to do the same for a long time.
While there isn’t anyone likely to make an immediate impact, a new group of prospects will be knocking on the door right around the time that robust free agent class will hit the market. If new No. 1 prospect Anthony Alford continues his emergence after a breakout 2015, he’ll be pining for big league playing time in 2017. The same could be said of pitcher Conner Greene, while 2015 draftee Jonathan Harris, Reid-Foley, Pentecost and first baseman Rowdy Tellez won’t be far behind.
Basically, the Blue Jays will have a young core of cheap players (Pompey, Sanchez, Stroman, Pillar, Travis, Osuna) with multiple seasons remaining until they hit free agency colliding with another wave of young talent (Alford, Greene, others) and a historic free agent class. The Blue Jays will have an extraordinary amount of talent within their grasp, and they would be remiss if they didn’t take advantage of the opportunity to add a young star such as Machado or Heyward or Fernandez.
Next: Astros, Brewers pitchers crack top 100 rankings
Extending Encarnacion and Bautista would decrease Toronto’s chances of making that happen, but it could work their way around any problems. It could sign one and let the other walk. With a bevy of young talent, trades are always an option. The Blue Jays also could backload any free agent deal to save money while Bautista or Encarnacion are still on the books. Also working in their favor, J.A. Happ, Marco Estrada and Drew Hutchinson will be free agents by then, so there will be some money opening up.