Washington Nationals should prepare for life without Stephen Strasburg

When the Washington Nationals drafted Stephen Strasburg first overall in 2009, many figured it was only a matter of time before he established himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball. Seven years later, has everything gone according to plan? Not exactly.

Though the right-hander has shown flashes of the talent that made him such a highly-coveted prospect, injuries and inconsistency have complicated the narrative. Now entering the final season of his contract with the Nats, it’s appearing increasingly likely that Strasburg’s days in a Washington uniform are numbered. And that might not be such a bad thing for the future of the franchise.

On Monday agent Scott Boras stated that he and the Nationals were not discussing a contract extension for the star hurler. It’s hardly surprising that Strasburg would want to test free agency, and you can bet that the ever-ambitious Boras will be pushing for a $200 million deal. That potential price tag is one of the first reasons Washington shouldn’t fret about losing the one-time gem of their farm system.

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David Price and Zack Greinke both inked contracts north of $200 million this offseason. Strasburg has age on his side: he will turn 28 years old next July, while Price and Greinke have both crossed the 30 threshold. However, those two had Cy Young awards and reliable front-of-the-rotation track records to point to in their negotiations.

Just how much Strasburg gets in free agency will largely depend on his health and performance in 2016. Boras will sell teams hard on his relative youth and impressive skill set, and barring any major setbacks this season, there will probably be at least a couple general managers willing to spread out $200+ million over an agreement in the neighborhood of seven years or so.

Given the Nationals’ current make-up, it doesn’t make much sense for them to over-extend themselves to retain Strasburg. For one thing, the rotation might not be the most pressing need. Washington starters posted a 3.70 ERA last year, good for seventh in MLB. Max Scherzer, to whom the Nats handed a $210 million payday of his own in January 2015, led the staff with a 2.79 ERA, a league-high three complete game shutouts and a remarkable pair of no-hitters.

Jordan Zimmermann left to join the Tigers, but promising young arms like Joe Ross and top minor leaguer Lucas Giolito are waiting in the wings.

With Scherzer under contract for six more seasons, it’s hard to see the Nationals keeping Strasburg around at such a lofty price point as well. If the team is going to spend heavily again in the near future, it should be on another of its young phenoms by the name of Bryce Harper.

Of course, Harper’s potential free agency earnings following the 2018 campaign have been the subject of much speculation recently. His future contract could be a very different kind of beast entirely, in the range of an unprecedented $400 million (or even $500 million) depending on who you ask.

Many are not giving the Nats much of a shot to re-sign Harper either, but with a few more years to go until that crossroads, it’s hard to predict exactly what will happen. In any case, keeping Strasburg most likely hinders Washington’s ability to give the reigning NL MVP his mega-deal.

There is also the matter of Strasburg’s current MLB resume and determining just how good he’s likely to be over the course of a long-term contract. Though his career numbers over six years in the league look pleasant enough, Strasburg has struggled at times, as recently as last season. He missed most of last June with neck stiffness and sported a bloated 5.16 ERA through July 4, at which point he landed back on the disabled list with a strained oblique. To his credit, Strasburg was a completely different pitcher when he returned in early August, spinning off a dominant 1.90 ERA over his final ten starts of the year.

Which Strasburg is likely to show up over the next several seasons? No one knows for sure, but his emphatic finish to the 2015 campaign is certainly encouraging. Health will play a key role. Aside from his injury issues last year, Strasburg also underwent Tommy John surgery in 2010.

He still throws hard, averaging just over 95 mph with his fastball in 2015, which is right in line with the previous few seasons. And despite Strasburg’s erratic 2015, his 2.81 FIP, 1.11 WHIP, 8.1 H/9, 1.0 HR/9, 1.8 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 were all equal to or better than the same numbers from the year before, when he posted a 3.14 ERA and placed in the top 10 in Cy Young voting.

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Though the rest of next winter’s starting pitching market looks quite weak in comparison (John Danks anyone?), the Nationals shouldn’t make a rash decision in throwing a lot of money at Strasburg. There is considerable pressure on the team to win right now in the wake of last year’s disappointment, but given the variables at play, it might be wiser to allocate their resources elsewhere as they navigate the seasons ahead.