Kevin Gausman is the Baltimore Orioles’ X-Factor for the 2016 Season

Last season, the Baltimore Orioles scored more runs than they did in 2014 when they reached the American League Championship Series. Baltimore should be confident that they will be able to have success offensively next season as the team brings back both Chris Davis and Matt Wieters.

The O’s also acquired outfielders Mark Trumbo and Korean hitter Hyun-soo Kim to a lineup that already includes All-Stars Manny Machado and Adam Jones. With the Orioles productive offense seemingly improving this offseason, Baltimore will need their starting rotation to improve if they hope to truly contend for an AL East division title in 2016.

In short, the Orioles’ starting rotation was a major disappointment last season. Guys who had career years in 2014, like Miguel Gonzalez and Chris Tillman, both fell back to reality last year. Bud Norris completely fell off the map last year, as Baltimore had to release the right hander midway through the season. Ubaldo Jimenez actually improved last season as he decreased his ERA from a 4.81 to a 4.11. This should be encouraging for Orioles fans, but his numbers still aren’t what the O’s expected when they signed the 30 year-old to the team’s largest pitching contract ever in 2014.

So with no ace jumping off the page for the Birds going into Spring Traning, what starting pitcher is the most likely to become the ace the team has so desperately needed the past couple seasons? Assuming of course, the O’s do not sign Yovani Gallardo, which is a common rumor these days.

Orioles fans should look no further than former number four overall pick, Kevin Gausman. The 25-year-old former top prospect entered the league with the expectation that he could one day be an ace. The Orioles have been able to get by with mediocre starting pitching because of their power-hitting lineup and upper-echelon bullpen, but not this year. This year, Baltimore needs their young righty to finally start showing why people around the game thought so highly of him when he was coming up through the minor leagues.

Gausman’s best year came in 2014 when he started 20 games and finished the season with a 3.57 ERA. This seemed to be a promising start to his career with further improvements sure to come in 2015. However, he struggled to consistently pitch well last year, with his ERA growing to 4.25. Gausman still had the pure stuff to compete last season. His fastball sat in the mid-90’s and he could occasionally ramp his heater up close to triple digits. His walk and strikeout rates even improved. So why did he regress in 2015?

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One factor is that the right-hander was more susceptible to the long ball. His home run rate increased from 0.6 in 2014 to 1.4 in 2015, which is a fairly big jump. He must improve on this number if he hopes to make big leaps this season. One way to do this is he must be able to throw offspeed pitches more consistently. According to Fangraphs, Gausman has thrown his fastball around 70 percent of the time he takes the mound in his career so far. Some pitchers can succeed with this type of pitching style, but this doesn’t seem to be the case for him. Gausman needs to be able to attack the strike zone with his splitter and changeup if he hopes to reach his full potential.

Gausman’s stuff can be electric and he has the ability to be a front-of-the-line starter. But in order to reach that level, he must control his offspeed pitches better and become a little less dependent of fastball-heavy pitching. If he can figure this out, there is no doubt that he can have a breakout season.

The Orioles are desperate of an ace and Gausman offers the team the best chance at turning out one. Baltimore’s starting pitching is certainly a huge question mark for 2016, but there is a chance that Gausman could be the difference between the club going back to it’s winning ways from 2014 or staying in the middle of the pack like they did last season.

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Do you think Kevin Gausman will break out in 2016? Let us know in the comments section below.