Why The Toronto Blue Jays Should Let Jose Bautista Walk
There is no arguing that Jose Bautista is one of the best outfielders in the game right now. But his production is surprisingly replaceable. Joey Bats is a premier offensive player with lackluster defensive capabilities, unlike his teammate Kevin Pillar.
For those that do not know, the best measurement to determine the value of a player in baseball is the WAR statistic. WAR stands for Wins Above Replacement and represents the number of games a team wins (more than an average player) because of a player. In another sense, it means that if a player with a WAR value of 3.0 gets hurt, the team he plays for will lose three additional games. Of course, this isn’t always literally true.
Despite recording a WAR value of 5.1 in 2015, Bautista’s defense actually cost the Blue Jays. With a defensive WAR of 1.1, Bautista ranked at 193 out of 200 defensive players and the 3rd worst dWAR of outfielders (Nelson Cruz was number one and ShinSoo Choo was number two). Joey Bats, according to this stat, cost his team wins because of his defensive play.
Looking at the Blue Jays roster, they are loaded from top to bottom on the offensive side of the ball as well as the defensive side. They ranked 12th in the majors last year with a .985 fielding percentage. However, their pitching is far behind most teams.
The Blue Jays had a combined 3.80 ERA last year, and that is including David Price’s contribution. Price, as many know, was the big difference maker for the Blue Jays this past year. Without his boost to the team’s rotation, they never would have had a chance to make it to the ALCS like they did.
Price contributed to a shaky roster with a 9-1 record and a 2.30 ERA. When removing his work from the puzzle, you are left with a starting rotation’s (consisting of R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle, Marco Estrada, who spent more than half the year on the DL, and Drew Hutchison) win percentage at .619 and an ERA of 4.12.
This win percentage was also inflated as the Blue Jays offense torched other teams with 891 scored runs, 232 home runs, 852 RBIs, a .340 OBP, a .457 slugging percentage, and a .797 OPS, all ranking first in MLB. Yet, Toronto had a sub-.500 record in road games and were 15-28 in one-run games (a .349 win percentage).
Over the 2015 offseason, the Blue Jays rotation only got worse. David Price bolted for Boston on a 7-year, $217 million deal, Mark Buehrle unofficially retired, and Mark Lowe signed with the Tigers. Toronto did add J.A. Happ and Jesse Chavez. The loss of 4 rather big arms and 1 all-star ace from Toronto in return for 2 struggling pitchers will only bring more hardship to a weak pitching front.
The 2016 projected starting rotation is practically laughable now. The team ace is the young Marcus Stroman. Despite a career 15-6 record with a 3.31 ERA, including a 4-0, 1.67 ERA in 2015, Stroman is still only 25 with only a year-and-a-half under his belt.
Additionally, he missed most of 2015 with a knee injury. Only the future will know what is in store for Stroman, but an already injured knee at such a young age could come back to bite him.
After Stroman comes the mediocre Marco Estrada, the old knuckleballer R.A. Dickey, the shaky J.A. Happ, and the unpredictable Aaron Sanchez. You do not know what to expect out of these guys over the next few years and, with the front office being stingy, as shown in the arbitration negotiations with 2015 MVP Josh Donaldson over about $450k, who the team will truly be able to bring in.
There is no question that the Blue Jays offense is set, but the pitching needs a colossal upgrade. Jose Bautista is going to be able to reel in a deal on the market at a premium rate, probably something along the lines of 4-5 years in the $150 million range. That’s a big price to pay for a guy who will be 36 next Opening Day.
Bautista came out earlier saying that he is not willing to negotiate at all.
“I’m not willing to negotiate, I don’t think there should be any negotiation. I think I’ve proven myself.”
For the money he wants and his defensive capabilities, the Jays are better off letting him walk and spend the money elsewhere. The Blue Jays have a strong defensive candidate in their farm system in Anthony Alford. He is ranked as the No. 97 prospect in the MLB and the No. 2 prospect in the Blue Jays system.
He could fill right in where Bautista left off at a close level an offense (Alford slashed a .302/.380/.444 in 2015 at the Double-A level) and provide a defensive boost and speed boost on the base paths for pennies on the dollar. With the savings from the non-signed Bautista deal, the Blue Jays could lay down money on big name arms like James Shields, Gio Gonzalez, Stephen Strasburg, or Jake Peavy. Plenty of big name relievers will be available as well such as Aroldis Chapman or Brian Matusz.
If the Blue Jays decide to let Jose Bautista walk, they have plenty of other options, including going into their own farm system for help. Though it may take a small grace period for the changes to fully impact the team, the team needs to address their issue with pitching first and foremost. Solving the pitching dilemma and saving money will also open a door for them a few years down the road when guys like Tulowitzki and Donaldson hit the market.
All statistics and values courtesy of ESPN.com and MLB.com