2016 MLB Awards: Predicting the Winners

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Spring training games haven’t even started yet, but it’s never too early to start talking about players who could win season-long awards. There are plenty of favorites for each category, but only one person can win each award every year.

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Based on how players are trending and based on their track record, here’s a look at the most likely winners of every major award including AL and NL Manager of the Year, Rookie of the Year, Cy Young and MVP.

AL Manager of the Year – Brad Ausmus, Detroit Tigers

It was initially reported last season that the Tigers were parting ways with their skipper, but they ended up keeping him on board. After a fairly active offseason, that’s looking like a good decision. The former catcher has proven to be a solid tactician and he will get the most out of Detroit in 2016.

All signs point to a resurgence in the Motor City in 2016, although they will have competition at every turn in the deep AL Central. Ausmus should steer them in the right direction, though, and keep them in the hunt.

When people vote for Manager of the Year, they’re generally looking for a team that turned things around or returned to dominance after a year or two off. Ausmus’ Tigers fit into the latter category as they got used to winning the division until a season ago. If they make the playoffs, Ausmus is a good bet for the award.

NL Manager of the Year – Dusty Baker, Washington Nationals

Dusty Baker hasn’t even managed a game in a Nationals uniform yet, but he’s already set up well to win the Manager of the Year award in 2016. His Washington squad disappointed a season ago and is primed for a rebound this season.

With the reigning MVP in Bryce Harper, and more offensive depth this season, the Nationals could push the Mets in the division. The rotation still isn’t as strong as New York, but the head-to-head matchups between the two teams could very well determine who comes out on top.

In his career, Baker has historically been good at taking teams a step away to the next level. Just look at his Giants teams and the 2003 Cubs, who came within five outs of their first World Series in almost 60 years. These Nationals are a step away, so Baker is the right man at the helm right now.

AL Rookie of the Year – LHP Blake Snell, Tampa Bay Rays

To give you an idea of how talented Snell is, the Rays are already negotiating a contract extension with him and he hasn’t even pitched in a major league game yet. Clearly, the team wants to lock him up long term before he increases his value with his performance and shoots out of their price range.

The lefty projects as a potential ace in the future, although he won’t reach that level in his first season in the league. However, he could be a very solid No. 3 starter in his rookie campaign, which would be enough to win the Rookie of the Year award in what figures to be a relatively weak class.

Tampa Bay already has several talented young starters and they’re about to add another one to the fold. He doesn’t have the same dominant stuff as Chris Archer, but he could be just as effective within a year or two.

NL Rookie of the Year – Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers

This one is a no brainer. When in doubt, take the top prospect in baseball. After making his presence felt late last season, Seager is ready to really burst onto the scene this year. His ability to hit to all fields and reach base consistently makes him the perfect candidate to win the award.

He’s not going to have the same production that Kris Bryant, the 2015 winner of the award had, but that’s just the result of the type of player he is. Seager will hit for a higher average and less power than Bryant, and that’s perfectly okay.

It will be interesting to see if the Dodgers challenge Seager by hitting him toward the top of the lineup right away. He wouldn’t get as many good pitches to hit at the top of the order, but he would also likely get acclimated to the league faster. After several weeks, it shouldn’t matter either way. Seager is here to stay and 2016 begins a successful career for the slugger.

AL Cy Young Award Winner – LHP Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox

It’s been a long time coming, but the White Sox’s power lefty will finally win the league’s most prestigious honor for a pitcher in 2016. There are several factors leading to him winning the award this season.

First of all, he’s now squarely entering his prime. He will be 27 on Opening Day and ready to begin an extended period of domination on American League hitters. The lefty has downright filthy stuff, which has made him one of the best strikeout pitchers in the league.

What it really comes down to for Sale is health. If he can make around 30 starts, he’s going to be in the conversation for the award. Playing for a White Sox team that should be more competitive than last year, he might have more motivation to pitch well late in the season. When you add everything up, it seems like Sale will come away on top of a close race in the AL.

NL Cy Young Award Winner – Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers’ ace decided to be nice and let someone else win the award in 2015, but he will get back to winning the award he’s grown accustomed to earning. Actually, the lefty pitched well enough to win the award last year, but historic seasons from Jake Arrieta and Zack Greinke kept him from it.

Kershaw has finished in the top three of Cy Young voting in each of the last five seasons and has won the award three times already. The ace will be 28 when the season opens, meaning he likely has a handful of good years left in him.

As scary as it is to think, 2016 could be his best year yet. He’s going to have to carry the rotation more without Greinke in the fold. On top of that, his stuff is actually getting better. After two pitchers put together historic seasons a year ago, there’s a good chance Kershaw ends up posting a historic season in 2016.

AL MVP – 3B Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles

Very quietly last season, Manny Machado had a breakout season. The 23-year-old hit .286 with 35 home runs and 86 RBI. Based on how the lineup is configured this year, those numbers could go up even more.

Don’t expect his home run numbers to peak much higher than 35, but he’s certainly capable of driving in upwards of 110 runs in 2016. A big reason for this is the fact that Dexter Fowler will now be hitting directly in front of Machado. Fowler gets on base a lot and Machado will have plenty of opportunities to knock him in.

With plenty of protection behind him, in Chris Davis and Adam Jones, pitchers won’t be able to pitch around him either. He’s about as scary as the come from the No. 2 spot in the order and pitchers may not know how to attack him.

The uncertainty with how to attack Machado may result in his best season yet. Based on his numbers and fourth-place AL MVP finish a year ago, any improvement from 2015 could result in an MVP award.

NL MVP – 1B Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks

This is finally the year. Goldschmidt has finished as a runner up in the MVP race twice in his career already, but he won’t be playing second fiddle to anybody in 2016. Behind an improved D’Backs lineup, he will be better than ever in his Age-28 season.

With A.J. Pollock entering his second full season, Arizona’s offense will be much more dynamic than a year ago, when they were above average in most offensive categories. This means more chances for Goldschmidt to produce runs.

Bryce Harper will be a perennial contender for this award, but he won’t be able to produce runs at the same rate as Goldschmidt in 2016, especially given the fact Goldy hits in a stronger lineup. After getting so close in the past, the D’Backs’ first baseman will finally be recognized as the best player in the National League.

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