Tampa Bay Rays should sign Blake Snell to long-term deal

According to a report from Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, the Tampa Bay Rays have already broached the topic of a long-term contract with top pitching prospect Blake Snell.

It would seem an odd move for most teams to consider locking up a player who hasn’t even set foot on an MLB field yet, but for a franchise like the Rays it could be just the right gamble.

Snell was selected by the Rays in the first round of the 2011 draft, and since then his stock has risen steadily. The left-hander is currently ranked as the #2 prospect in the Tampa Bay system by MLB.com, and Baseball America named him the 12th best prospect in baseball ahead of the 2016 season.

Snell is coming off a terrific season in the minor leagues in 2015. He went a combined 15-4 with a 1.41 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 10.9 K/9 in 134 total innings across three levels (Advanced-A, Double-A and Triple-A). Baseball America awarded him its Minor League Player of the Year honor for his impressive performance.

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Now age 23, Snell appears poised to make a significant impact on the mound this year for his major league club. At last July’s Futures Game, the Sporting News highlighted the 6’4″ lefty’s low-90s fastball, “devastating” changeup and polished command as the key weapons in his arsenal.

There’s a lot to like about Snell’s outlook, but would it really be wise to make a long-term commitment to him before even seeing how he fares on the big league stage? The Rays have not shied away in the past from trying it with their highly-touted young players.

Days after making his MLB debut in April 2008, Tampa inked third baseman Evan Longoria to a six-year, $17.5 million deal. Pitcher Matt Moore received a five-year, $14 million contract of his own in December 2011, three months after his first major league appearance.

Longoria and Moore have certainly experienced some hurdles since signing those deals. After a series of MVP-level seasons, Longoria agreed to another far more lucrative pact following the 2012 campaign. The extension added six more years and $100 million, potentially keeping the star third baseman under team control through 2023.

However, Longoria’s production has slowed noticeably the last two years. He posted OPS totals of .724 and .764 in the previous two seasons, down from .889 in 2009.

Meanwhile, Moore underwent Tommy John surgery in 2014, a year after winning 17 games to the tune of a 3.29 ERA and finishing ninth in the AL Cy Young race. The southpaw struggled in his comeback attempt last season, managing a 5.43 ERA in 12 starts.

Despite some bumps in the road, the Rays shouldn’t let these cases deter them from making a daring bet on Snell. After all, they did get several years of premier performance from Longoria at a bargain rate, and Moore is still just 26 and could very well rebound this year.

Current Rays ace Chris Archer might offer the template for Tampa Bay to follow in this situation. The team inked the righty to a six-year, $25 million deal at the start of the 2014 campaign. Archer has quickly developed in a legitimate Cy Young contender, and with options the Rays could have him through 2021 at no more than $11 million per year. That would likely be a best-case scenario for the club in regards to Snell.

Unless they make a drastic change to their fiscal policy, the Rays will never be major players on the free agent market. Strong drafts and sound player development have been their recipe for success over the years, especially when it comes to pitching.

Signing a player like Snell to a long-term agreement before he even throws a pitch at the game’s summit could always backfire, but if Tampa Bay is serious about competing in a division that houses the Yankees and Red Sox, certain risks have to be taken.

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