5 MLB Players That Will Let You Down in 2016
Every year, there are MLB players that play ball harder and better than anyone else out there. It is simply an expected thing that some players jump off the page and really become household names. That is, until they fall back down to Earth and people realize that they were only able to pull off such a feat for a small amount of time. After that, people simply forget about them and they become ‘who is that again?’ players.
2015 had some very impressive accomplishments from some players and there were a lot that were able to open our eyes, as viewers and fans. But, they played at a level that they simply are not expected to keep up at a consistent rate.
“Honorable” Mention: Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez
Each of these players have proved themselves in their own ways during their times playing on other teams. Pablo Sandoval with the San Francisco Giants hit .294/.346/.465 and was the hero in Game 3 of the 2012 World Series. He hammered 3 home runs in a single game and cemented his legacy with the Giants. He even went on to win another title with them in 2014. After catching the final out to seal the win of the 2014 World Series, Pablo jumped ship and signed with the Boston Red Sox.
So far, he has really gone downhill since that signing. In 2015, he hit a measly .245/.292/.366. On top of this, he is constantly put under the spotlight over his weight. In fact one of the first things to come out of Boston Red Sox camp this spring had to do with the weight of Sandoval.
Competition is very different between the American League and the National League. For starters, the American League is based off hitting as the pitcher is substituted with a designated hitter. The National League features a pitcher hitting in the ninth spot instead. Many players on both sides of the ball struggle to make the adjustment between the two leagues.
At the end of 2014, most speculated that Pablo would thrive in the American League, especially after the performances he put up in all 3 World Series that he has appeared in (.426/.460/.702 combined). Unfortunately for Pablo and the Red Sox, this adjustment did not come in 2015 and it is not expected to occur in 2016 either. The Red Sox realized this in 2015 and actually tried to sell Pablo at the trade deadline, just a few months into his contract.
As for Hanley Ramirez, many people forget that he has come full circle. He started his career with the Red Sox after signing there in 2000 as an amateur free agent. But after playing only 2 games with them, he was sent packing to the Marlins. Eventually, Hanley made his way back to Boston for the 2015 season… after being a rival to Pablo since 2012 as Hanley came from the Dodgers.
Hanley is a shortstop by nature and plays most comfortably at that position. However, the Red Sox had no room for him there, as they already had the young Xander Boegaerts manning the spot. Hanley had to adjust and learn to play left field, a costly mistake for Boston as Hanley had numerous plays throughout the year that cost Boston games. Nevertheless, Hanley was brought into Boston for his bat. His bat, however, took the same turn that Pablo’s did. Hanley did not look ready to play in the American League for most of the year. He struggled through the year but had small hot streaks thrown in here or there. He ended 2015 with a .249/.291/.426 line, way below his career .296/.367/.494 offensive line.
On top of Hanley trying to regain his swing, he has to learn another new position at the same time. The Red Sox have decided to experiment with Hanley again and let him play first base. This position may be a little more in the realm of Hanley, as he still gets to use his infield hands and reflexes on defense. However, there are still many plays that even a seasoned first baseman struggles to make. Only time will tell how Hanley at first works out, but loading someone up with too many tasks rarely works out.
Yoenis Cespedes
Yoenis Cespedes had his career year in 2015, smashing a ridiculous .291/.328/.542. He even hammered in 105 RBIs and 35 home runs. He finished 13th in NL MVP voting and even won an AL Gold Glove. He had his best year in all but one of his major offensive stats in 2015. But, the one stat that really matters is the number of strikeouts he had.
His strikeout totals rise every year. Despite a ridiculous campaign in 2015, they still increased from 128 to 141. When a player has a year like Cespedes in 2015, the strikeout number is not a huge deal. But, Cespedes rose way above his career numbers for this season. He is a career .271/.319/.486 hitter. He is the definition of a hit or miss player. Granted Cespedes will bring loads of power and stealthy speed to any ball club, he will still give you a large amount of strikeouts.
Yoenis can not be expected to perform to such a high caliber level for yet another year, especially after playing all the way through October and even a few days into November. His offseason was shortened dramatically, thus giving other players much more time to bounce back and perform at their peak level. Cespedes will be playing on fatigue at the middle part of the season because he simply will not have enough time to rest his body. Most players get at least an extra month to let their body catch up with them. Being an outfielder makes it even harder because of making plays where you have to put your body on the line and crash into the wall to make a play.
When all is said and done, the majority of Cespedes’ numbers will regress back to his career averages. But, his strikeout rate will certainly climb again, leading to more discussion about whether he should be traded.
Zack Greinke
Zack Greinke is coming off one of the most impressive pitching seasons since Greg Maddux in 1994. Greinke had a dazzling ERA of 1.66 and was runner-up to the NL Cy Young award, behind Jake Arrieta. Greinke’s dominance was also powered by a strong Los Angeles Dodgers club. He followed Kershaw in the pitching rotation, had a brilliant defense behind him, and even had the Dodgers bats to power wins for him.
In 2015, Greinke even finished with a 19-3 record, one of the best in the league. He looked exactly like his old self back with the Royals when he won the Cy Young in 2009. On top of all his success, he won the National League Gold Glove award for a pitcher. But all good things must come to an end.
Not only will it be nearly impossible to repeat such dominance to the same extent, but Greinke will need to do it on a completely new team. First and foremost, Greinke will most like start to regress back to his career ERA of 3.35. On top of that, the pressure is on Greinke to be the face of Arizona and carry them to the playoffs. Sure he will have someone like Paul Goldschmidt for offense, but that is it. Greinke will need to do most of the work on his own, as the Diamondbacks do not have a super strong bullpen.
As for the rotation, behind Greinke is Shelby Miller, a new acquisition from the Braves. Miller is a rather unpredictable pitcher, as he will either give you a one-hit shutout or be unable to make it through the third inning, as we saw many times last year with the Braves.
Expect Greinke to give a better than average year for the Diamondbacks, but he will certainly regress from his 2015 campaign. Expect around a 16-10 record with an ERA close to 3.00.
Josh Donaldson
This American League MVP has to be the biggest regret of Billy Beane‘s. When he was traded, Josh Donaldson still had four years left of his rookie contract and much of them were arbitration eligible. It was a very team-friendly contract to say the least. From the vantage point of Billy Beane, he should trade Donaldson while he was hot to get as much as he could for him. A great strategy for an Oakland team that generally cannot afford to hold onto big name players once they hit the market, but Beane may have acted a year too soon.
Josh Donaldson is a very impressive player. In 2015, he led the Toronto Blue Jays to their first postseason berth since the early 1990s. He slugged a monster .297/.371/.568 with 41 home runs, 123 RBIs, 122 runs scored and 46% of his total hits went for extra bases. These numbers were so off the charts that it even won Donaldson the Silver Slugger Award. Donaldson seems to really be fitting in on a power-happy team that includes one of the deadliest tops of a lineup out there. As of 2015, the scorecard reads Troy Tulowitzki, Donaldson, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion.
There are two major problems with Donaldson and the Blue Jays. First, Donaldson is not a career hitter to this extent. His career line is obviously much below these numbers, at .276/.371/.490. If we exclude his monster 2015, these numbers drop even further down to a much more ordinary .238/.305/.409. As even more evidenced of this, look at Donaldson’ postseason line of .238/.319/.393.
His numbers are destined to drop after the peak year Donaldson just had, especially as he passes into his 31st year of age.
Jake Arrieta
Like Greinke, Arrieta had a phenomenal year in 2015. He was the National League Cy Young Award winner, giving the Cubs exactly what they needed to get them within a few games of a World Series appearance. Arrieta ended his 2015 feat with a 22-6 record and a 1.77 ERA. To add to this, he had four complete games, three of which were of the shutout variety. One of these was even a no-hitter against the Dodgers.
These numbers, as impressive as they are, are nowhere near the normal level of play Arrieta brings to the table. Jake is a great pitcher, no doubt, but he is also a career 3.70 ERA pitcher, including his last year of work. Exclude that number and his ERA skyrockets up to 4.89. Plus, if you subtract his 2015 stats, he only has a career record of 34-32, which is barely above .500.
Sure Arrieta could be turning a corner in his career, but with all of the modern technology for scouting and watching film, Arrieta will have to learn to adapt in order to survive. Let’s take the case of Aaron Small for example. Small was a pitcher from 1994-2006. He struggled fiercely throughout his career, similar to Arrieta at the beginning of his. Then, Small put together a dominant year in 2005. He went 10-0 with a 3.20 ERA. He was untouchable and touted as the next great pitcher. Until 2006 rolled around, where Small fell right back onto his career path and went 0-3 with an ERA at 8.46 before being released the Yankees. If Arrieta is not careful, he could fall onto a very similar path. Do not expect a huge drop off this year from Arrieta, but do expect a large decline in his numbers.
Nelson Cruz
First things first, Nelson Cruz is a 35-year-old outfielder turned designated hitter. He had a monster year at the newly renovated Safeco Field. Renovated in the sense that the outfield fences were brought in to allow the hitters to slug more successfully, much to the amusement of Cruz. He ended the year with great stats all-around, finishing at .302/.369/.566 with 44 home runs and 93 RBIs. He won the Silver Slugger for 2015 in the American League as well, and ranked 8th in the American League in batting average. Only Chris Davis had more home runs (47) than Cruz in 2015.
On the other side of this, like Cespedes, Cruz had a lot of strikeouts. Cruz had the third most in 2015, at 164. He only trailed J.D. Martinez (178) and Chris Davis (208). Cruz is almost always at the top of the strikeout list. Because of this, Cruz is also at a much lower career split of .273/.334/.510.
To add to all of this, Cruz is a much better hitter away from Safeco Field, especially on the power side. Cruz had 10 more home runs on the road than at home last year. The main reason Cruz was brought to Seattle was for his ability to go deep. They wanted him to make a power lineup similar to that in Toronto. The problem now is that Cruz has no support in the lineup. Robinson Cano is trending downwards and has not looked like an All-Star caliber player since he left New York. On the other side of Cruz is Kyle Seager, an inconsistent third baseman who is coming off a rough 2015, slashing .266/.328/.451.
With little support to help Cruz, an increase in home games against more difficult teams and pitchers in 2016, and another year of age, expect the decline of Cruz’s career to start.