Five Favorites to Win 2016 NL Cy Young Award
Honorable Mentions:
10. Matt Harvey (New York Mets)
Once known as the brightest star of the Mets’ incredible pitching staff, the “Dark Knight” has kind of taken a backseat in terms of publicity to Noah Syndergaard and Jacob DeGrom. Nonetheless, Matt Harvey had a great season in 2015 after recovering from Tommy John surgery, finishing the year with a 2.71 ERA. The 26-year-old should continue his strong play in 2016, just maybe not as strong as some of the other starters that the Mets have.
9. Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals)
Stephen Strasburg is one of the most interesting pitchers to evaluate in the entire major leagues. He has some of the best pure stuff, with his electric heater and drop-off-the-table curveball. But for whatever reason, hitters have been able to make hard contact off of him. Whether this is luck or not is tough to say. But with that kind of pitching arsenal, Strasburg should start to figure it out and emerge as one of the best pitchers in the NL this upcoming season.
8. Max Scherzer (Washington Nationals)
Max Scherzer was the Nats’ big free agent signing last winter and did it pay off in a big way. Scherzer had arguably the best season of this career as he was pretty much unhittable for the first half of 2015. While his numbers did creep back up as the season carried on, Scherzer proved himself to be an even better pitcher in the National League, which should have been expected being that there is no DH. The power-throwing righty frequently challenges hitters and attacks the zone, forcing batters to deal with his nasty pitching arsenal. At 31 years old, Scherzer is proven and in the prime of his playing days. There is no reason he shouldn’t be one of the best again next year.
7. Madison Bumgarner (San Francisco Giants)
The imposing lefty has been consistently one of the best starters in the MLB. Madison Bumgarner is capable of being an unstoppable force on the mound as you can see by his historic 2014 postseason. He also hasn’t finished a season with an ERA above 3.00 since 2012. With his deceptive delivery and his pinpoint location, people should not expect this to change this season being that he is only 26 years old and still throwing the ball as well as he ever has.
6. Noah Syndergaard (New York Mets)
Noah Syndergaard, otherwise known “Thor”, had a breakout season in 2015. Like most of the Mets’ young pitchers, Syndergaard is a legit power pitcher with a fastball that regularly hits the upper 90s. Syndergaard frequently attacks hitters as you can see by his high strikeout numbers. He did pitch to a 3.24 ERA last season, which while still very impressive for his rookie season, didn’t put him in the upper echelon of pitchers in the major leagues. There is a good chance with a year of experience now under his belt that he reaches that level this upcoming season. Being only 23 years old, Syndergaard should dominate opposing lineups for many years to come and he only will get better as he starts to rack up more innings and pitching experience.
Top 5 NL Cy Young Favorites:
5. Jose Fernandez (Miami Marlins)
2015 Stats: 6-1/2.92 ERA/11.0 SO9/1.9 BB9
Jose Fernandez had an interesting 2015. After performing at such a high level the past couple of seasons and in his first 11 starts last year, Fernandez was shut down due to injury. He never came back and opted to have Tommy John surgery like most pitchers do when they have significant arm injuries.
This was then followed by an offseason of trade speculation and a growing concern that the Marlins would not be able to sign Fernandez to the contract that he was seeking when he becomes a free agent in the coming years. While this may be true, this can not be good for any player’s psyche.
So why is the 23-year-old ranked so high on the list? Well it’s really simple… it’s because he’s just that good. Now there’s no guarantee that he is the same pitcher after surgery and there is no simple answer to how the trade speculation will affect the right-hander. But the one thing that mostly holds true in this game is that players who have extraordinary talent perform extraordinarily well.
Ever since coming into MLB as a rookie in 2013, Fernandez has dazzled. He finished the 2013 and 2014 seasons with ERAs of 2.19 and 2.44, respectively. This goes along with striking out the fourth-most hitters in 2014 and having one of the most dominant pitching arsenals in the league. Like most top-of-the-line starting pitchers, Fernandez throws his fastball in the high 90s, but also mixes in his slider and changeup very often too.
Fernandez has never really shown signs of weakness when he has pitched and while there are a few legitimate concerns with him coming into this season, he should continue to be a leading contender for the top starting pitcher in the National League in 2016.
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4. Jake Arrieta (Chicago Cubs)
2015 Stats: 22-6/1.77 ERA/9.3 SO9/1.9 BB9
Jake Arrieta became a breakout star or the Cubs in 2015. Bursting onto the scene by pitching out of his mind as the season came to a close to steal in the NL Cy Young Award from former Dodgers righty Zack Greinke. However, this is something that people should have seen coming based on what he did for Chicago in 2013 and 2014.
Before the 29-year-old right-hander was traded by the Orioles to the Cubs during the 2013 season, Arrieta was known as a major letdown. Coming up through the Orioles farm system, he was lauded for his natural arm talent, and while he did show flashes of brilliance at times, he was simply not consistent. After the trade, Arrieta started to find himself, mixing all of his pitches a little more and controlling the zone much better as you can see by his decreased walk rate over the past couple of seasons.
In 2014, Arrieta proved that his nine starts with the Cubs the season before were no fluke. He finished that year with career lows in ERA and walks, while also increasing his strikeout rate to over nine batters per nine innings for the first time in his career. He carried this great production into last season, when he truly showed that he is one of the most talented pitchers in the major leagues.
Arrieta sits firmly in his prime and has been improving ever since he arrived in Chicago. People should expect this to continue in 2016, and while it will be difficult for him to match his production from last season, he could come awfully close.
3. Jacob deGrom (New York Mets)
2015 Stats: 14-8/2.54 ERA/9.7 SO9/1.8 BB9
The Mets have been lauded for their accumulation of quality minor league starting pitchers. This includes guys like Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler. However, their best starter the past couple of years came up as a unheralded starting pitching prospect. Ever since his major league debut, there have been concerns with how his body would handle the workload and if he would be able to avoid injury do to his skinny frame. Jacob deGrom seems to have silenced his critics because all he has done is perform at a high level for the 2015 NL East champion Mets.
DeGrom took center stage in 2014 when as a rookie as he made Mets fans forget that Matt Harvey was out for the season recovering from Tommy John. The 27-year-old righty finished that year with a 2.69 ERA and flashed truly electric stuff in the process. While DeGrom may not look like a power pitcher, he certainly is one. The 180-pound righty can pump his heater to the upper 90s when need be while also mixing in a devastating changeup and slider. He also is able to control his pitches well while attacking hitters in the process. As you would expect with his great pitching arsenal, deGrom’s strikeout numbers are high as well.
DeGrom built off of his his success in 2015 by decreasing his ERA and walk rate, increasing his strikeout numbers and by just pitching more innings. Chris Sale has proven that pitchers on the skinnier side can be durable and there is no reason to think that deGrom cannot continue to improve next season. The Mets are filled with talented starters in their rotation, but deGrom’s production and lack of an injury history makes him the best of the bunch.
2. Gerrit Cole (Pittsburgh Pirates)
2015 Stats: 19-8/2.60 ERA/8.7 SO9/1.9 BB9
It’s easy to see why Gerrit Cole was the top pick in the 2011 MLB Amateur Draft. Cole possesses everything you look for in a game changing ace with his big athletic frame and dominant pitching arsenal. Like many expected being such an advanced college starter, Cole made the jump to the major leagues rather quickly, only taking 1.5 years to make his first start as a big leaguer.
Like many big time prospects, his unique abilities allowed him to produce very well for a rookie. There were some rough spots the first couple of seasons, but overall Cole was an above average starting pitcher. After averaging a mid-3.00 ERA in his first two seasons in the league, Cole was able to turn the corner last season. The 25-year-old finished the year with a 2.60 ERA and made significant strides in how he controlled his offerings.
There is reason to think that Cole will improve on these numbers for this coming season. Cole is going into his second full season as the Opening Day starter and should be more comfortable in the role. He also has a pitching arsenal that not many pitchers in the league possess, and along with his control improvements in 2015, he was third in the MLB in FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), which shows that with a little more luck next season, his numbers could see some big improvements.
He may not be as proven or has produced at as high of a level for as long as some other pitchers in the NL, but there is hope that he could start to cement his name in that conversation this year.
1. Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers)
2015 Stats: 16-7/2.13 ERA/11.6 SO9/1.6 BB9
What else can be said that hasn’t been said about Clayton Kershaw? Along with having a career ERA of 2.43, he has even improved over the past couple of seasons. Kershaw ended the last three seasons with ERAs of 1.83, 1.77 and 2.13. His strikeout and walk numbers have improved drastically over the past two seasons and he made 30 or more starts in six of the last seven seasons, and the scary part is that the lefty is still only 27 years old.
Kershaw is this good because he throws one of the best curveballs in the history of baseball and is able to control it to make his curve nearly unhittable. While his loopy curveball is tough to hit, his fastball is nothing to scoff at either. He is able to throw his heater in the mid 90s and can locate it on the corners as well as any pitcher in the MLB.
Kershaw has the production, numbers and pure unhittable pitching ability to say that he is the best lefty that the league has seen since Randy Johnson. The argument could be made that he is already a Hall of Famer. There is no other pitcher that is safer to bet on having a Cy Young type season than the Dodgers lefty. And while there are a number of pitchers that have emerged as threats to unseat Kershaw as the top hurler in the National League, people shouldn’t bet on him being supplanted any time soon.
Who do you think are the top contenders for the NL Cy Young Award in 2016? Post your thoughts in the comment section below.