Shelby Miller will never live up to price tag
The Arizona Diamondbacks recently beefed up their starting rotation by acquiring Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller.
The Arizona Diamondbacks made a huge splash this offseason by signing Zack Greinke to a mega-deal. The move was surprising in the sense that the Diamondbacks were not seen as a favorite to land the 2015 National League Cy Young finalist. However, the Arizona Diamondbacks knew that Greinke would not solve all of the team’s problems; thus, they decided to trade for Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Shelby Miller, who broke onto the scene in 2015.
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The Atlanta Braves acquired Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins, from the Cardinals, for Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden. After an impressive season out of Shelby Miller, the Atlanta Braves looked to flip him for more prospects and continue the rebuilding process. The Atlanta Braves openly shopped Shelby Miller around the league, but many reported the Braves wanted too much in return for him. However, the Arizona Diamondbacks got desperate to provide Greinke with help.
Amidst the Arizona Diamondbacks’ desperation, they offered the Atlanta Braves two top-tier prospects and a budding star for Shelby Miller and Gabe Speier. The Arizona Diamondbacks had to part with Dansby Swanson (top-rated prospect), Aaron Blair (top-three prospect), and Ender Inciarte. Ultimately, the Atlanta Braves turned Jason Heyward into Tyrell Jenkins, Dansby Swanson, Aaron Blair, and Ender Inciarte. With highly-cognitive trades like so, the Atlanta Braves quickly turned around their farm system.
In 2015, Shelby Miller, former first round pick by the St. Louis Cardinals, bounced back from an uninspiring 2014 season. Shelby Miller managed to improve across the board, most notably cutting his ERA from 3.74 in 2014 to 3.02 in 2015. Also, Shelby Miller improved on his walk rate, strike out rate, WHIP, FIP, and increased his innings pitched. However, even with the improvements from 2014 to 2015, Shelby Miller will not live up to the price tag the Diamondbacks paid.
The Arizona Diamondbacks gave up two of their top-three prospects in order to land an, at best, number-two starter in the rotation. The Arizona Diamondbacks, probably, slot Shelby Miller into the number-three spot in their rotation, behind Zack Greinke and Patrick Corbin; however, they expect more production out of Shelby Miller than just middle-of-the-rotation numbers.
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If someone glances at Shelby Miller’s impressive 2015 season, he or she sees a pitcher who improved with a move to Atlanta. However, when looking at Shelby Miller’s game log, he started out the 2015 season on fire, but he regressed towards the middle of the season. If it were not for an otherworldly start last season, Shelby Miller’s value would have never come close to what the Diamondbacks paid. Moreover, the Diamondbacks did not seem to do their homework on Miller.
Through the first three months of the 2015 season, Shelby Miller owned a 2.20 ERA; however, over the last three months of the season, Miller registered a 3.84 ERA. Despite struggling over the latter part of the season, Shelby Miller still finished with a 3.02 ERA, but one could argue the case that Miller’s production is more indicative of his second-half numbers than first-half numbers. Also, over those last three months, Miller went 1-13, which culminated to him losing the most games in the National League.
With the Arizona Diamondbacks depleting their farm system, they intend on winning now; however, their moves do not directly translate to winning games. Similarly to what the San Diego Padres did last season, the Diamondbacks are in for a highly-questionable 2016 season. Even though the Diamondbacks improved their pitching, other teams within the division did the same, headlined by the Giants bolstering their starting rotation.
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Sure, the Arizona Diamondbacks have Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, and Zack Greinke; however, their complementary pieces do not look like enough to make a playoff push. Moreover, they do not jump out as a favorite for a World Series title either. In Shelby Miller’s three seasons as a starter, he averaged a 3.27 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 3.87 FIP. With Miller’s FIP exceeding his ERA, regression is certainly a possibility heading into the 2016 season, especially in the National League West.
Personally, I believe Shelby Miller will regress across the board, and I am willing to bet his ERA will sit closer to 4.00 than 3.00. Fangraphs’ Steamer projects Shelby Miller to finish 2016 with a 10-12 record, 4.04 ERA, and 4.22 FIP. Shelby Miller goes from one of the worst divisions in baseball (N.L. East) to one of the most hitter-friendly divisions in baseball (N.L. West).
Regardless of what Shelby Miller does in 2016 with the Diamondbacks, it will not come close to the price tag they paid to acquire him. The Atlanta Braves did the right thing in trading him while his value peaked. It is highly unlikely that Shelby Miller becomes anything more than a number-three pitcher in his career, but the Diamondbacks paid top dollar to get him. With the high price tag associated with him, Shelby Miller might crumble under pressure. He does have a temper when things do not go his way.
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The Arizona Diamondbacks hope that they see the same Shelby Miller that the Atlanta Braves had in 2016, but this might go down as one of the most lopsided trades in recent history, especially if Miller regresses like many experts believe is imminent. Only time will tell if Shelby Miller dominates in 2016, and if he does, I will eat my words. As of now, I am not buying in on Shelby Miller nor the Arizona Diamondbacks.