Homer Bailey is Cincinnati Reds' X-Factor in 2016

Barring a complete surprise the Cincinnati Reds won’t be very good this season. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projection system predicts the Reds to finish 74-88. Fangraphs predicts them to be even worse at 64-98. They’re currently in the beginning stages of a rebuild that saw them ship out Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, Todd Frazier and Aroldis Chapman over the past few months.

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While there’s little chance for Cincinnati to be successful this season, fans would still like to see the team take steps in the right direction. With that in mind Homer Bailey reestablishing himself as the Reds ace (or even a productive starter) might be the most important development for Cincinnati this season.

In February of 2014 the Reds inked Bailey to a six-year, $105 million contract. This all but assured that Cincinnati wouldn’t re-sign Johnny Cueto. The decision was debated amongst Reds fans, but it was clear that Cincinnati was banking on Bailey being their ace for years to come. At that point the decision made sense. During the 2013 season, when he was only 27, he had a career year. He pitched 209 innings with a 3.49 ERA. He accumulated 4.1 fWAR and stuck out a career high 8.57 per nine. There were clear reasons for the Cincinnati front office to be excited about Bailey at the top of their rotation for the next six seasons.

However, the injuries quickly started to mount. He was shut down early in 2014 so that he could have surgery on a torn tendon in his forearm. Reds fans were hoping he would come back stronger than ever and reestablish himself in 2015. Bailey pitched 11 innings before it was announced early in May that he had torn his UCL. Tommy John surgery would keep him out all of 2015 and the early part of the 2016 season. The Reds invested heavily in Bailey as he was entering his prime, and now two surgeries later they’re left wondering what he’ll be when he returns.

As for now the plan is for Bailey to return in mid-May. The Cincinnati Enquirer reported that he’s “throwing all his pitches off flat ground” and that Bailey feels like “nothing ever happened.” This is a Reds team that started a rookie pitcher in 110 games last season, and the success of their rebuild could depend heavily on Bailey’s return to the top of the rotation.

When he was at his best Bailey had a fastball that would hit 94 mph. A big question that will need to be answered as he returns from surgery is how much (if any) velocity he has lost. Ken Funck noted in his BP Annual comment on Bailey that prior to his injury he was also “getting more mileage out of his two-seamer and splitter.” Can he be that same kind of pitcher? Will his injuries require him to make adjustments to his strategy on the mound? These are major issues that the Reds front office and fans will be watching with bated breath in 2016.

Yes, the Reds will be interested in the development of the pitching prospects they have stock piled over the past few months. However, this season begins five straight years of raises for Bailey. He’ll make $18 million this season followed by totals of $19 million, $21 million, $23 million and $25 million by 2020.

The Reds, who as of last season had the 16th highest payroll in baseball, have to invest their money wisely. They already have Joey Votto locked up through 2023 (with a club option for 2024). He was expected to be the foundation of the lineup for years to come, while Bailey would provide that same kind of security for the rotation. There’s still a chance he could be the pitcher they thought they were getting two seasons ago.

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All of these factors mean Bailey’s return from injury isn’t just the Reds’ X-factor for this season; it could also have a significant impact on the success and length of their rebuild.

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