MLB Power Rankings: Spring Training Edition

The push toward October begins today.

It’s the day clubhouses are filled, bonds are created and jersey numbers in the nineties are stitched. While Clayton Kershaw is dusting off his curveball in the desert, Yoenis Cespedes is rolling up in new whips on the banks of Port St. Lucie. It’s all happening at once – storylines from coast-to-coast – which leaves us diehards sneakily watching games at our desks.

It’s Spring Training, and boy is it a tease.

Everyone is in the ‘best shape of their lives’ (except Pablo Sandoval). It’s a season of way too early World Series predictions and overreacting to every Ryan Howard home run. But it’s fun for everyone. From this point forward, baseball will be played every single day until July 11.

“People who write about spring training not being necessary have never tried to throw a baseball.” – Sandy Koufax

Are you ready?

It’s time to roll out the debut edition of MLB Power Rankings. The list will be updated every so often throughout Spring Training, but once regular season play begins, new ranks will publish each Monday at Call to the Pen.

There isn’t a method to my madness, no formula which spits out numbers or projections. Our criteria is based on roster talent, potential, and 2015 statistical analysis. Our goal isn’t to provide predictions of the final 2016 standings. For example, the Cardinals are ranked 11^th, but they’ll be a top 10 team, because history says so.

It’s simply a record of how each club is equipped entering the spring based on the factors above plus offseason transactions. Fair warning: you will be upset at some point this season because you believe your team is ranked too low. All comments are welcomed in the section below, so fire away.

Next: 30-26: Phillies bring up the rear

In Philadelphia, the only way to go is up

After years of toying with other veteran players around Ryan Howard, the Phillies have finally entered full tank mode. Philly is the 10th youngest team in terms of average position player age (28), with a large portion of rising due to Howard and Carlos Ruiz.

The trade of Cole Hamels has gathered viable prospects to rank the Phillies eighth in Baseball America’s talent rankings, joining the likes of Odubel Herrera and Maikel Franco who are under 25-years-old. In the pipeline, J.P. Crawford is a name to watch this spring, a future all-star shortstop with plus athleticism and improving power. Although expected to begin the year at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, it’s only a matter of time before Crawford replaces Freddy Galvis in the big leagues.

In a span of two months, Philadelphia added three starting pitchers – two placeholders in Charlie Morton and Jeremy Hellickson who carry one year deals, plus Brett Oberholtzer who came over in the Ken Giles trade. The Phillies have Oberholtzer under contract for years to come, along with top pitching prospect Jake Thompson, who was electric at Double-A Reading (5-1, 1.80 ERA). But the centerpiece of the pitching staff is Aaron Nola, the team’s first-rounder in 2014, who made 13 starts last season following a rapid rise through Triple-A.

The wins and attendance figures will be low by season’s end, but the Phillies, like three of the four National League teams listed below, are slowly building for the future.

Stay calm, Philly faithful. For 2016 is the final year of the absurd Howard contract.

Next: 25-21: Carrying the load

Dark farm system in Los Angeles

When insiders suggest your team should trade the best player in baseball for prospects, you know you’re in deep…stuff.

The Angels easily have the worst farm system in MLB, according to ESPN’s Keith Law and Baseball America. They were able to land defensive wizard Andrelton Simmons in November, but paid a hefty price to get the shortstop, delivering top prospect Sean Newcomb to the Braves as part of the package deal. Now, it’s a wasteland of young talent, or lack thereof, with new number one guy Taylor Ward just now on the verge of reaching Double-A.

If the Angels envision a postseason run, it falls directly on Mike Trout’s shoulders.

Assuming Albert Pujols is unable to begin the season coming off surgery to repair the plantar plate in his foot, this is LAA’s probable lineup surrounding Trout and 2015 Gold Glove winner Kole Calhoun:

3B Yunel Escobar
RF Calhoun
CF Trout
1B C.J. Cron
DH Daniel Nava
C Carlos Perez
SS Simmons
LF Craig Gentry/Todd Cunningham
2B Johnny Giavotella

So, in its efforts to make offseason transactions, the Halos have failed to make a splash and enter full win-now mode. While Simmons and Escobar certainly improve the left side of the diamond, it was a disappointing free agency period for the Angels.

Garrett Richards remains a consistent ace for the Angels on the mound, but bounce-back seasons by Jered Weaver and Hector Santiago are crucial in their efforts to compete on the nightly basis. Each recorded a FIP north of 4.70, while C.J. Wilson followed closely behind with a 4.02. Los Angeles may appear built to win in 2016, but the strategy raises concerning questions.

Next: 20-16: Temperatures rising in Arizona

Pitching spike in the desert

Are we sure it was indeed the Arizona Diamondbacks who bought the diamond of the 2015 free agency saga?

Zack Greinke inked a six-year, $206 million contract with the D-Backs in a shocked turn of events, and they didn’t stop there. In a full reverse tank mode, Arizona shipped its 2015 no. 1 draft selection Dansby Swanson to Atlanta, among other pieces such as Ender Inciarte in exchange for right-hander Shelby Miller.

The likelihood of the blockbuster trade paying its dividends, percentage-wise, is countable on one hand. However, with the D-Backs taking a step forward last season with 79 wins, they are going for it in 2016. Arizona’s two franchise players – Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock – are in their prime at 28-years-old, along with David Peralta who broke out late last year (.893 OPS). so why not says Arizona?

The Diamondbacks will pencil in one of the worst middle infields in baseball with newly acquired Jean Segura teaming with Chris Owings or Nick Ahmed, and the team is hoping for the Yasmany Tomas who showed up and hit .310 rather than his awful .210 showing in the second half.

Arizona’s pitching staff figures to be very strong, and rightfully so. The two additions will move lefty Patrick Corbin down a notch in the rotation after a promising return from Tommy John (8.3 K/9 in 16 starts last season). Brad Ziegler returns for another go-around coming off a 30-save season, while the trade for Tyler Clippard gives the Snakes a stopper to mix with an experienced bullpen.

Next: 15-11: On the outside looking in

After 100 win season, Cardinals trending down

The Cardinals will find a way to reach the postseason in 2016, but there’s reason to believe a letdown season is on the horizon.

Four of the team’s positional starters are north of 30 – Matt Holliday (36), Jhonny Peralta (33), Yadier Molina (33) and Matt Carpenter (30). Holliday was shelved twice last season with quad injuries, missing 41 games, while Molina is recovering from thumb surgery which will keep him out until late spring.

Beyond the core four, the Cardinals are relying heavily on young outfielders Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk, with the former expected to bat second in his first full season with the big club. High expectations were placed on slugger Matt Adams a season ago, only to bow out in May with lower body injuries.

On paper, the team’s rotation looks dominant – with Mike Leake joining Carlos Martinez and company – and it could be depending on the status of Adam Wainwright. The right-hander returned in October in relief duty, and pitched effectively, but the velocity on both his fastball and cutter have dipped – 89 and 85 mph, respectively.

There are too many red flags to confidently say the Cardinals are a top 10 team entering the spring, given the numerous injury concerns and teams above them who possess greater potential.

Next: 10-6: Oh so close

Appealing Astros

It should come as no surprise who the youngest lineup in baseball belongs to.

With no position player over the age of 30, the Houston Astros will at least win a trophy for the “Most Entertaining Team to Watch”, and another piece of hardware could be delivered with its wealth of talent. In just a matter of months, Carlos Correa became the best shortstop in baseball, a 21-year-old star who can hit (.512 slugging) and run (14 stolen bases).

A full season of Correa batting behind Jose Altuve and Georgie Springer with resurgent Colby Rasmus and Carlos Gomez to follow…

Oh, and did I mention the American League CY Young winner also calls Houston home?

Dallas Keuchel and his magnificent beard exploded onto the scene in 2015, earning a 20-8 record and 2.48 ERA. With a true No. 1 starter at the forefront, the Houston front office has done an excellent job stockpiling arms, with Colin McHugh (19-7, 3.58 FIP) and Lance McCullers (9.24 K/9) filling the next slots in the rotation. One of the most underrated moves of the offseason was Houston signing Doug Fister at a bargain price of $7 million, while the addition of Ken Giles files the closer role for years to come.

It’s clear I had a really difficult time keeping this club outside the top five.

Next: 5-1: The Final Countdown