5 Bold Predictions for the Toronto Blue Jays in Spring Training
After an incredible 2015 season that saw Toronto Blue Jays fever sweep an entire nation, the club looks to remain a threat this upcoming season in the American League East.
They may not have the bonafide ace (or do they?) in David Price they had least season during the second half and in the postseason, but Canada’s team still has enough fire power to compete inside the division.
Next: Dalton Pompey
5. Pompey starts in left field
It may not and likely won’t happen right out of camp, but at some point during the 2016 season, Dalton Pompey will take over full-time duties in left field for the Blue Jays. Michael Saunders has been irrelevant since Toronto acquired him and he’s extremely injury prone.
Both native Canadians will fight for the job in Spring Training and Saunders may win it out of the gate due to experience, but Pompey’s tools are more valuable than Saunders’.
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Saunders is a left-handed bat, but Pompey switch hits and brings far more speed to the base paths and in the outfield than Saunders. Since trading away Ben Revere, Toronto lacks a true 40-plus base stealing threat. Pompey knows he can be that guy for the Jays. It’s just a matter of making enough contact and getting on base. Following a 2015 demotion, he hit .351/.405/.545 over 31 Double-A games and .285/.372/.356 in Triple-A across 65, positive omens for Toronto.
Pompey is only 23 and will be a bottom of the order bat for now, but so too will Saunders, and he turns 30 in November. Toronto will be better served developing and investing their time into having Pompey in the lineup long-term. He’s potentially under contract until 2022, whereas Saunders is eligible for free agency following this season.
Next: Ryan Goins vs Devon Travis
4. Gibbons struggles to find the two playing time
Devon Travis might have been on his way to AL Rookie of the Year in 2015 if not for a shoulder injury. A surgery has bought manager John Gibbons some time to decide what to do between him and Ryan Goins. Travis likely won’t play until May after a rehab assignment.
In his rookie year, Travis showed he’s going to be a better career hitter than Goins. However, Goins’ defensive skill set is extremely underrated and shouldn’t be. He can play shortstop with as much panache as he does second base and has logged innings in the outfield as well. Travis is no slouch either, with a 2.2 UZR to Goins’ 1.2 in 2015 at second base.
If Saunders or Pompey under-perform drastically as left fielders this season, don’t be surprised to see Goins or even Travis get bumped over there. For a player known for his glove, many hitters had far worse seasons at the plate in 2015 than Goins did. His .250/.318/.354 slash line was rather respectable.
Next: Which youthful pitcher will step up?
3. Roberto Osuna out-pitches Aaron Sanchez
Aaron Sanchez is still only 23. He has 11 big league starts under his belt and the numbers have not been bad with a 3.55 ERA and five wins. Yet he has had better success out of the bullpen, while Roberto Osuna is yet to start a Major League game. That eventually happening may not be far off.
For the Blue Jays to contend in 2016, pitching wise, they will need Marcus Stroman to be ace-like, R.A. Dickey to eat up innings and either Sanchez or Osuna to emerge as a solid rotation arm. Osuna is the pick here, as he cracked the 25-man roster and eventually took over the closer job from Brett Cecil last season at only age 20.
He appears to be progressing and developing faster than Sanchez. Osuna was incredible for Toronto as their closer and used an impressive three pitch arsenal of fastball/slider/change-up in 2015. He’s been working on a cutter this offseason. If that pitch has came along nicely, Osuna should be a leading candidate to make the Jays’ rotation out of camp with his already nasty stuff.
The acquisition of Drew Storen mostly solidifies the fact that he will be closing in 2016, with the organization having their eyes on quality starts from Osuna and/or Sanchez. But Osuna’s development and more electric arm is the safer bet here.
Next: Have we seen the best from Marcus Stroman yet?
2. Stroman represents true ace status in T.O.
An early return from ACL surgery in 2015 speaks loud and clear to the competitive fire that burns inside Marcus Stroman. The Jays never made much of an effort to bring back David Price or sign another big free agent arm. Stroman is the main reason for that.
Not a typical ace in stature, Tim Lincecum and his two Cy Young awards never were, either. Stroman’s five pitch repertoire that he uses well above average have drawn comparisons to Roy Halladay amongst scouts and from fans in Toronto. While he has a lot of work to do in order to gain the respect and future contracts that Halladay left behind once his playing days were over, Stroman is ready to try — there’s no question.
His 3.65 ERA and 2.79 FIP as a rookie in 2014 were ridiculously strong outputs. In fact, for all starters with a minimum of 120 IP in 2014, Stroman’s FIP ranked 13th league wide, right behind David Price.
While 2015 seemed too good to be true (4-0, 1.67 ERA in four starts less than six months removed from surgery), Stroman showed he is capable of becoming a dominant pitcher in years to come. If he can stay healthy and help guide the Blue Jays to a second consecutive playoff berth, don’t be surprised to see his name appear on some awards ballots at regular seasons end.
Next: Bye bye Bautista
1. Jose Bautista will be gone in 2017
Joey Bats has been the face of the franchise since his breakout campaign in 2010 when he led the American League with 54 taters. He has been an asset at the plate to the Blue Jays ever since and 2015 was no different.
Bautista’s 5.4 oWAR was second only to AL MVP Josh Donaldson on the team, as were his home run (40) and RBI (114) totals. His OBP of .377 led the club and so too did his 110 walks, which actually outpaced his strikeout total of 106.
Then, of course, second to only Joe Carter‘s walk-off shot in the 1993 World Series, Bautista’s Game 6 blast versus Kansas City in the ALCS to tie the game in the top of the eighth was arguably the most memorable postseason home run in franchise history. The bat flip that followed it became iconic in Toronto and Canada over the following weeks despite the Royals going on to win the pennant.
There’s no question Bautista is skilled, but new President of Baseball Operations Mark Shapiro will not give him the money he seeks. Shapiro has showed from his time in Cleveland that he likes to build a winner from the draft and with prospects. Bautista will turn 36 in October. $150MM is a lot to ask for, as Bautista and his agent are doing. Regression is an obvious factor to consider here because of his age.
To contrast, Carlos Beltran had a line of .296-24-84 in 2013, his age 36 season with the St. Louis Cardinals. He was an All-Star that year and in a contract year. Free agency and the New York Yankees presented him with a three-year deal for $45MM following his 2013 season with the Cards. True, they are two different players, but $150MM for someone on the wrong side of 35 is unprecedented.
If Toronto is not in a place to win at the trade deadline, Bautista will be shipped to the highest bidder. If they are winning, the offseason will bring with it a number of clubs willing to pay more for his services than the Jays are. If Joey Bats wants to earn his future contract, rather than just be paid lots of money for past accomplishments, a permanent move to designated hitter should benefit that quest.