Los Angeles Angels: End of the line for Jered Weaver?

Velocity tends to be a popular topic concerning pitchers in Spring Training. Every year it seems fans and media obsess over radar gun readings and openly speculate whether certain hurlers appear to have lost some zip on their fastballs.

The latest target of such discussion? Los Angeles Angels right-hander Jered Weaver.

Weaver has experienced a notable decline in velocity for a few years now, but the numbers during yesterday’s spring outing against the Dodgers were rather startling. According to Pedro Moura of the the Los Angeles Times, Weaver’s fastball topped out at 81 mph and averaged around 79.

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As FOXSports.com bluntly put it, that’s “barely cracking the highway speed limit.” Weaver was tagged for six hits during the start, three of them home runs.

Weaver has never been the hardest thrower, but he could certainly bring more heat than this earlier in his career. His highest average fastball velocity came in 2008 (his third big league season) at 90.4 mph. That number steadily diminished, and last year sat at 84.9.

According to Fangraphs, only five other non-knuckleball pitchers since 2002 have tossed more than 150 innings in a season with a lower average fastball velocity than Weaver a year ago. That list is highlighted by Jamie Moyer and Barry Zito, who Fangraphs is quick to point out were lefties that relied on deception and creativity – perhaps not the best comparisons for Weaver.

Weaver’s waning velocity has coincided with increasingly disappointing results on the mound, of course. Not long ago he was the Halos’ unquestioned ace and one of the top starting pitchers in all of baseball. From 2010 to 2012, he won 51 games to the tune of a 2.73 ERA, finishing in the top five in Cy Young voting each year.

His performance slipped a bit the following two seasons, but he still maintained an ERA under 4.00 and racked up an AL-leading 18 victories in 2014.

Last year was an entirely different story, however. Weaver experienced his worst season by almost every metric, going 7-12 with a 4.64 ERA (and 4.81 FIP) while missing several starts due to an injured hip. The effects of that diminished velocity were clear: Weaver allowed more than a hit per inning (9.2 H/9) for the first time since 2007 and also posted a 1.4 HR/9 and 5.1 K/9, both career worsts.

Naturally, Weaver attempted to alter his approach and move beyond the fastball, throwing his changeup and curve more often. Focusing on other parts of his repertoire didn’t seem to make much of a difference; opposing batters hit a healthy .291 against his changeup and .292 against his two-seamer.

Pitchers typically build up velocity throughout the spring and into the regular season, so Weaver may not be resigned to an average fastball below the 80 mph mark. But considering all the factors at play, including age, it’s hard to foresee that significant of a bump.

This downturn comes at an inopportune time for Weaver from a career/financial standpoint as well. The long-term contract extension he signed with the Angels in 2011 draws to a close after the upcoming campaign. Another season like last year’s (or even worse) would obviously deliver a major blow to his appeal as a free agent next offseason.

Weaver turned 33 years old last October, meaning his best days are almost surely behind him. Nonetheless, it still seems too soon to be completely cooked as a big league pitcher, especially one who once wielded such talent. His task, once again, will be trying to make do with limited resources.

It’s worth noting that Weaver’s previous Spring Training start went considerably better than the most recent one. He tossed two scoreless frames against the Cubs, allowing two hits and striking out three while reportedly hitting 83 mph. A small sample, to be sure, but Weaver will hope to find that form again in the weeks ahead.

Regardless, it’s difficult to get particularly optimistic about Weaver’s case. Even if he can push his velocity a bit, he’s still looking at the largest year-to-year velocity decrease of his professional career. And last season’s results with an already lackluster fastball were anything but encouraging.

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There are also health issues to consider. Jon Heyman reports that Weaver is heading for an MRI after experiencing neck stiffness. Any way you look at it, a very important season for Jered Weaver has gotten off to an inauspicious start.

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